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Military


Operation Iron Swords - Day 29 - 04 November 2023

Palestinian armed group Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel and deployed its militants to infiltrate Jewish settlements near the country’s border with Gaza on 07 October 2023. The 1,200 Israelis killed on the first day would be the equivalent of 36,000 Americans killed in an attack, as a proportion to Israel’s population of 9.3 million people (compared to 332 million in the USA). Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated: “Not since the Holocaust have so many Jews been killed in one day". PM Netanyahu stated "On October 7th, Hamas murdered 1,400 Israelis. Maybe more. This is in a country of fewer than 10 million people. This would be equivalent to over 50,000 Americans murdered in a single day. That’s twenty 9/11s. That is why October 7th is another day that will live in infamy."

It is the second largest loss inflicted on the Israeli forces after the 1973 war, as the Palestinian resistance killed more than 1,400, wounded more than 5,132 others, and captured more than 250, most of them military personnel, some of whom were high-ranking officers in the army.

Butcher's Bill / Oasis of Martyrs

Palestinian health authorities say that at least 9,488 Palestinians had been killed in Gaza, more than four times the number killed in the six-week-long war in 2014. The death toll included 3,900 children and 2,509 women [these subtotals fluctuate inexplicably]. In addition, the number of injured rose to more than 24,000 [though earlier reports had totaled over 32,000 Palestinians injured since October 7th, including at least 6,360 children and 4,891 women]. More than 2,200 were missing, including 1,250 children, and presumed buried under rubble, a substantial increase from earlier reports. On the West bank, at least 129 Palestinians had been killed, and more than 1,980 injured. IDF said it was holding 1,500 bodies of terrorists.

More than 1,405 Israelis were killed as a result of HAMAS attacks, including 345 soldiers and officers, according to what was announced by the Israeli army. At least 5,431 were injured. Since the start of the ground incursion into Gaza in the middle of last week, about 30 members of the Israeli army had been killed, including

The spokesman for the Al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Ubaida, asserted that the number of Israeli deaths was “much greater” than what was announced by the Israeli leadership, and he vowed in a speech to make Gaza the “curse of history” for Israel. Abu Ubaida said, "The Israeli leadership is lying to its public about the number of soldiers killed in the Gaza Strip and in the course of the battles," and he addressed the Israelis, saying, "Watch for more of your soldiers returning in black bags.

Some 241 [down from 242 the previous day] hostages are being held by HAMAS in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military said 03 November 2023. About 40 Israelis remained missing.

Late in October 2023, The armed wing of Palestinian militant faction Hamas, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades said “almost 50” hostages had been killed in Israeli bombing raids in the three weeks since the war began. Qassam Brigades said that more than 60 hostages were missing because of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, said on Hamas’ telegram account that 23 bodies of the 60 missing Israel hostages were trapped under the rubble. “It seems that we will never be able to reach them due to the continued brutal aggression of the occupation against Gaza,” he said. More than 50 people were killed in an Israeli air raid on the densely packed Jabalia refugee camp, Palestinian authorities said. Hamas said seven Israeli hostages, three of whom held foreign passports, were killed in this attack.

Operational Update

The IDF encircled Gaza City, which is cut off from the rest of Gasa south of Wadi Gaza, and is entering the edge of the built up urban area. There has been a marked decrease in operatonal granularity, due in part to Isralie operational security. The absence of granular reporting is also due to the fact that the fighting has devolved into small unit actions focused on individual builtings or floors thereof, and detailed reporting [apart from OPSEC] would be difficult to follow, and tedious to understand.

A senior US official has told CNN that the US expects Israel to change its tactics in its conflict against Hamas in the coming days, and shift from its current intense air bombardment of Gaza, which has killed thousands of civilians, and instead adopt “more of a tactical focus on the ground campaign” aimed at clearing out Hamas’s underground tunnel network. The official, however, distanced the US from support for a ceasefire, and instead said that the US was emphasising “humanitarian pauses”.

Israel claimed the Jabalia refugee camp north of Gaza City was a hub of Hamas’s tunnel network used for weapons stockpiles, rocket firing positions, and tunnels leading to the coast. Israel, without providing clear evidence to back its claims, flattened large parts of Jabalia in air raids over three days. At least 50 Palestinians were killed in the bombing of Jabalia.

The 'Arrow' system again intercepted a long-range rocket. The IDF said " we also intercepted a distant rocket that Hamas fired in the direction of the Arava. We intercepted it with the "Arrow" system, which is a very successful operational interception of it during this war. We will continue to aerially protect the entire State of Israel wherever there is a threat. " The Arava is the desert valley in Israel that extends from the Dead Sea to Eilat, along the border with Jordan. This may or may not reference an attack on Dimona, the unmentionable nucler weapons facility. Israel has not eliminated Hamas’s ability to launch rockets targeting military installations in Israel at a rate of about a dozen a day throughout the week, though this slowed to nine rocket attacks on November 3.

The Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, said they targeted rockets at the Israeli nuclear reactor and research facility at Dimona – the first time they have ever done so. “That’s why Israel’s response is different from the past … it is not simple, it is not easy, and it will take time for Israel,” said Matteo Bressan, strategic studies professor at Lumsa Master School–University.

Between 350,000 to 400,000 people remain in northern Gaza, US special envoy David Satterfield said, as Israeli forces encircled Gaza City. Israel told Gazans to evacuate the north of the Strip and move south as the war against Hamas intensifies. Between 800,000 to a million Gazans had moved from the north to the south of the enclave, said Satterfield, heeding Israel’s call for an evacuation of northern Gaza as the war against Hamas intensifies.

Israel’s military said the main road will be open for people to move from the north to the south of the Gaza Strip from 11:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT. Al Jazeera’s Tareq Abu Azzoum in southern Gaza said routes linking the north of the strip to its south have been deemed unsafe by civilians after Israel’s warning to evacuate. Israel has struck convoys attempting to leave as per its instructions in the past, and people have been afraid to make the journey south without power and without safety guarantees. Several areas in the south have also been repeatedly attacked. Families find it difficult to walk on foot without fuel to operate their vehicles.

Residents in northern Gaza might not have enough time or means of transportation to be able to move south after Israeli authorities announced a short window of time for them to evacuate through Salah al-Din Street, an Al Jazeera correspondent said. “Even though the Israeli army has advised to evacuate, the reality is that it’s incredibly difficult and dangerous for many to do so,” said Sara Khairat, reporting from occupied East Jerusalem. “Many people might have not received that message, and many might not be able to move starting in less than 30 minutes, especially when not everybody has access to transportation,” she added.

Israeli analyst Nitzan Sadan, who specializes in aviation affairs, said in an analysis on the Israeli news site Ynet that there are five reasons why Hamas is able to continue firing rockets from Gaza, despite the ferocity of the Israeli bombing.

  1. The first reason: location - Hamas rockets are spread over a wide area, and have been built in a way that makes it impossible to know the location of each launch pad. He added that the launch is done using a remote control or a timing device, and the militants can fire from a nearby hideout, without wandering around the area. He continued, "Long-range missiles, such as those aimed at reaching Haifa, are launched from a reusable underground complex."
  2. The second reason: the structure of the missile group, which are designed to operate independently of the state of the command and control systems. He added that the militants only need a command and the remote control of the rocket launcher and thus fire easily. They don't even need to aim, he pointed out, everything is pre-drilled and pre-set, so even if we eliminate the senior leaders, the "juniors" in the field can still shoot when they are told to do so.
  3. The third reason: fire management policy - Hamas embarked on the “deadly Black Saturday attack” (last October 7) knowing that it would then slide into war with the Israeli army, would not receive reinforcements, would not receive ammunition, and would have to use what it had. Wisely until the end of the fight. Therefore, the firing policy pursued by Hamas was also designed to continue firing for as long as possible. He explained that the militants fire a relatively small number of missiles in each burst, and choose when to focus their efforts and fire more.
  4. Fourth reason: public relations - The rocket launch is a display that serves an important purpose for the movement, as Hamas tries to show the Arab world that it stands firm against the Israeli army, thus preserving the idea of “armed Sunni resistance.”
  5. The fifth reason: exhausting the Israeli army - There are limited reserves of fuel and ammunition, a limited number of qualified soldiers, and support and legitimacy can also change both in Israel and abroad.

The Israeli analyst pointed out that determining the locations of all the rockets in Gaza would be an unequivocal waste of resources, as there are a large number of armed launch pads ready to be launched, and the appropriate answer is the “talented” Iron Dome battery crews, that is, working to repel rocket attacks. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised that Israeli forces will “find and eliminate” Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “We will find Sinwar and will eliminate him,” Gallant told a news conference, as Israeli forces continued to fight street battles with Hamas fighters inside the Palestinian territory. Sinwar is a former member of the group’s armed wing who spent more than 20 years in an Israeli prison after being convicted of abducting and killing two Israeli soldiers. He was released in a 2011 prisoner swap. Soon after the war erupted, Israel said Sinwar was a “dead man walking,” and he and the leader of the group’s armed wing, Mohammed Deif, were the army’s top targets. Security sources outside Gaza say Sinwar and Deif are now holed up in a network of tunnels.

The spokesman for the Martyr Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades - the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement ( Hamas ) - Abu Ubaida said that the brigades destroyed 24 Israeli military vehicles, stressing, “Our fighters continue to circle behind the enemy forces and engage from zero distance with its soldiers.” Abu Ubaida added that during the past two days, the Al-Qassam Brigades brought in Al-Yassin shells that targeted the forces holed up in the buildings.

Abu Ubaida continued, "We directed strikes with anti-armor missiles at Israeli military vehicles," stressing, "Our mujahideen are fighting in the enemy's advance lines in the northwest and south of Gaza City and Beit Hanoun." The spokesman for the Al-Qassam Brigades said that they are fighting an unequal war, but it will be taught in the world and will be immortalized in history, adding, "Our people are being subjected to systematic extermination by an enemy who is safe from punishment in a world governed by the law of the jungle."

Abu Ubaida concluded by saying, "The destruction that the enemy is sowing will only reap disappointment, defeat and shame. What we published is a small part of the heroism of our mujahideen against the enemy forces in the field."

The Brigades said - in a brief statement via Telegram - “Al-Qassam Mujahideen attack a force holed up in a building northwest of Gaza City, clash with it with machine guns and bombs, and killed 5 soldiers and wound others.” Al-Qassam added that it destroyed "two Zionist vehicles" penetrating south of Tel al-Hawa with "Al-Yassin 105" missiles, and also targeted an Israeli tank penetrating southwest of Tel al-Hawa with a "Concourse" guided missile. They continued, "Al-Qassam mujahideen are engaged in clashes with various weapons with a Zionist force in the Al-Atatra area, west of Beit Lahia," confirming that they bombed a gathering of Israeli vehicles penetrating northwest of Beit Lahia and east of Juhr Al-Dik in the Gaza Strip with mortar shells.

The IDF Chief of Staff entered the territory of the Gaza Strip and met the division commander in the field along with all his division commanders and the fighters inside the field. The Chief of Staff held a situation assessment, the commanders - the brigade commanders - each presented him with the operational lessons, the way of fighting, what they learned from the field, and also described to him their feelings and spirit in terms of continuing the fighting. The fighters, the commanders, looked the Chief of Staff in the eyes and told him that we are determined. We are determined to fight. We are in control of every battle, we have the upper hand over the enemy, we are winning the battle, we want to continue and advance in the fighting in order to dismantle Hamas and achieve the goals of the war.

Fighter jets attacked a Hamas terrorist infrastructure located on the roof of a building. In addition, a shaft was found near the building that was attacked and destroyed. The information about the terrorist infrastructure and the shaft was received as part of the Shin Bet's investigations and thanks to the IDF's ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

The intensifying Israeli air strikes destroyed solar panels that were installed atop several bakeries in order to keep providing full services to thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as the power blackouts continued. At least five bakeries in the Gaza Strip have been directly targeted by Israeli strikes, and at least eight more have suffered so much damage from attacks near them that they have been rendered out of service.

As the total siege imposed by Israel on the already blockaded territory continues, food is running out, and bread – a staple in Palestinian households – is becoming more difficult to get with each passing day. Residents now wait in line for hours just to get a bag of pita bread for their families, with the queues beginning before dawn in some areas.

Israeli jets also bombed the solar panels of the hospital for the elderly and medical rehabilitation, an Anadolu correspondent reported. The bombing resulted in a significant fire in the hospital’s courtyard, which was eventually controlled by civil defence teams after several hours, the correspondent said. The attack caused extensive damage to the hospital’s solar energy system, leading to a power outage in the facility.

Within the vicinity of al-Shifa Hospital, an Israeli strike targeted all the surrounding residential homes that have solar panels on the top. This seemed to be the last nail in the coffin. What Israel army wants people to do is to leave. The last source that’s keeping them in Gaza was the tiny bit of electricity they got from the solar panels.

The same thing happened in the early hours of this morning, near Nasser Hospital [in western Gaza City], a specialised children’s hospital. All the solar panels on top of that hospital and the surrounding homes of it were destroyed.

In addition, with the intelligence guidance of the Amman and the Shin Bet and after detecting gunfire from the area, a building was attacked from where fighting against the forces was conducted. As part of the fighting, Nahal, Engineering and Armor fighters fought a battle against the terrorists and eliminated them.

The IDF Arabic spokesperson announced that between 13:00-16:00 the Salah Al-Din route in the Gaza Strip will be available as a humanitarian route for residents of the northern Gaza Strip who had not yet moved southwards to evacuate for their own safety. The Hamas terrorist organization exploited the humanitarian window that the IDF provided to residents of the Gaza Strip to move southwards, and the terrorists fired mortars and anti-tank missiles at IDF troops who arrived and operated to open the route. No IDF injuries were reported. "This incident further proves that Hamas exploits the Gazan population and prevents them from acting in the interest of their own safety." the IDF said.

In response to the fire from Lebanon toward Israeli territory earlier today, IDF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terror targets over the last hour, in parallel to IDF tank and artillery strikes. The Hezbollah targets struck include terror infrastructure, rocket storage sites, and military compounds.

There were numerous attempted attacks on IDF troops from tunnel shafts and military compounds in the northern Gaza Strip. IDF troops operated in the area and killed terrorists, located Hamas weapons, and uncovered tunnel shafts that were used for terror purposes. During combat with terrorists yesterday, IDF troops engaged with 15 terrorists in the northern Gaza Strip, killing several of them, and directed tank fire to destroy three Hamas observation posts.

Also overnight, in a targeted raid in the southern Gaza Strip, IDF armored and engineering corps operated to map out buildings and neutralize explosive devices. During the operation, the troops encountered a terrorist cell exiting a tunnel shaft. In response, the troops fired shells toward the terrorists and killed them.

Creating access routes for forces, neutralizing explosive devices and tunnels: the combat engineering forces in ground operations in the Gaza Strip. During ground operations in the Gaza Strip, combat engineering troops created access routes, cleared the area of explosive devices, neutralized terror infrastructure and terrorist cells found in the area. Furthermore, combat engineering and infantry soldiers located and struck military compounds used for planning and executing terror activities.

At dawn, Friday, the people of Jenin, in the northern West Bank , were inspecting the effects of the destruction and great devastation caused by the Israeli occupation bulldozers, as they stormed the city and the refugee camp there for hours. In the destroyed streets, a number of residents were trying to reach the Al-Awda Roundabout area, which is known in the governorates of Palestine in general, and not only in the camp.

It is known that Jenin is famous for its many roundabouts, and this matter was unique in it among all the cities of the West Bank.” Every roundabout has a certain value and symbolism. For the people of Jenin and its camp, Israel is trying to destroy the landmarks of the city and the camp to hide the Palestinian identity, in general, and to keep people busy compensating for the destruction in order to distance them from the resistance. Residents say that all these symbols took years to build and develop since the Al-Aqsa Intifada, until today, and Israel destroyed them in just hours.

The news received was that the Israeli military bulldozer had destroyed the roundabout, known for its symbolism and built in the shape of a map of Palestine, and located near the martyrs’ cemetery inside the camp. Israel destroyed the return roundabout that the camp residents had built, and wrote on it the names of the cities and towns from which they were displaced in the 1948 Nakba, and placed a map of historical Palestine on top. It also destroyed more than one monument to martyrs who died during previous confrontations with the occupation forces in the alleys of the camp, located near Al-Awda Roundabout.

The camp residents believe that the Israeli occupation forces deliberately demolish and bulldoze the symbols of the camp and the city to put pressure on them and make them aware of the extent of the material loss they are exposed to, due to the presence of resistance among them. “It is as if they are saying to the people of the camp: As long as the resistance remains among you, you will have no homes, no streets, no shops, no property, and the camp will not be able to stand on its feet. Every step you take forward, we will take you back with our bulldozers and planes, one step back, until the resistance ends,” said Abu Iyad, whoe is "close" to Jenin battalion fighter.

According to the resistance fighters in the camp, the occupation forces adopted a new method in their recent incursions into the camp, which is not to enter the alleys and alleys of the camp. To avoid direct clashes with the resistance, they dragged them to open lands on the outskirts of the camp. Abu Iyad said, “The method used in the recent raids is of course luring groups of resistance fighters to open areas outside the camp, so they try to start bulldozing its outskirts, and military vehicles are stationed in these areas waiting for the resistance fighters to leave their positions, to be bombed by drones."

The occupation also destroyed the most important roundabout in the city center, which is the “Watermelon Roundabout,” which symbolizes the appreciation of the farmers of the governorate, which depends largely on agriculture for its economy, and is famous for watermelon cultivation. Before its withdrawal from the city of Jenin, it also destroyed the “Interior Circle,” which is located in front of many Palestinian ministries. The most important of them are: the Ministry of the Interior, which bears its name, the Judicial Court, and some other government departments in the city.

Abu Iyad said, “They want to hide the Palestinian identity from all cities to facilitate our expulsion and control of our lands. Their plans are clear, in addition to trying to force the people to reject the presence of resistance fighters among them, but that is impossible. They kill a resistance fighter and 5 others come out. Don’t they see that? The number of resistance fighters in the camp is increasing.” By the grace of God, although the daily killing and assassinations have not stopped, even resistance fighters come from neighboring villages and join the camp’s fighters.”

He added, "For 15 days, the funeral homes in the camp have not ended, and the door of the Jenin Camp Club, which hosts the funeral homes for martyrs, has not closed. The mourning of one martyr ends and another begins, but we are behind the resistance. The houses are being rebuilt, the streets are reconstructed, the monuments and symbols are being restored, and the resistance remains the foundation."

Muhammad Al-Awdat, the Jordanian lawyer and writer, noted "The operation showed Israel's military fragility. The country that offered itself to normalize relations with the Arab regimes through security and military superiority showed that it was incapable of protecting itself, and that when it sensed the real danger, it turned to the Western ally to protect it in the region. Whoever presented himself as the protector of the region and the allied regimes today is asking for protection from America and the West.

The operation restored confidence in the idea of ??resistance and its usefulness in the Palestinian liberation process. This confidence had collapsed due to the Naksa War and the perpetuation of the idea of ??an invincible Israeli army for more than half a century, especially after the settlement option that the Palestinian Authority had followed for 30 years had failed to achieve any mention of the Palestinians.

He forsees two scenarios:

  1. First scenario: An overwhelming Israeli victory over the Palestinian resistance: The victory that Israel wants is to completely eradicate Hamas, make Gaza demilitarized, and recover the prisoners. Any talk about Hamas staying or keeping weapons in Gaza and negotiating over the prisoners means for Israel an abject defeat. The victory that Israel wants is a zero-sum victory and that the opponent It must surrender and end completely, and this is the declared Israeli and American goal. This goal has what supports it and serves its realization on the ground, including the presence of an American and Western green light to use force against Gaza without any red lines, the airlift of advanced American weapons, the deterrent battleships that prevent the expansion of the war in the region, and the large financial support that the West provides to Israel until it reaches... In US President Joe Biden's latest calls for Congress to agree to allocate $14 billion in military support to Israel. Behind this is a Western media machine that is sympathetic and supportive of Israel, conditions that the Israeli political and military leadership will not leave without seeking to end Hamas, the resistance, and Gaza’s weapons forever. This is an opportunity that will not be repeated for Israel from the point of view of the Israeli leadership.
  2. Second scenario: The survival of the resistance, the leadership of the resistance, the weapons of the resistance, and the survival of the prisoners under the hands of the resistance, whether they are alive or dead. The mere survival of the resistance, whether with or without Israeli ground losses, will represent a failure and defeat for the Israeli campaign. Everything short of uprooting the resistance and its weapons is a Palestinian victory. This scenario is supported by previous experiences in Israel's ground wars. The 2006 war in Lebanon surprised everyone, Hezbollah withstood, and Israel eventually submitted to a prisoner exchange deal and suffered losses it had not expected. The Lebanese model can be repeated in the ground war on Gaza, but this depends on how much the Palestinian resistance has prepared for the ground war, and this is what the first weeks of the ground war will be judged on.

Awdat belived that if Israel achieves the first scenario and achieves an overwhelming victory and is able to occupy Gaza again and end the presence of the resistance and disarm it, the military and political scene in favor of Israel in the region will be as follows:

  • Netanyahu emerging victorious from the war means tightening the grip of the Israeli right on the reins of government in any future elections and for many years. Netanyahu will intend to capitalize on the victory and seek another war and repeat the same victory in southern Lebanon over Hezbollah, benefiting from unlimited Western and American support, especially after southern Lebanon entered the war, albeit in a limited way so far.
  • Consolidating and deepening Israel's policy of deterrence and the policy of managing military brutality that it has pursued in its wars with the Arab armies and Palestinian resistance movements throughout the history of the Palestinian cause.
  • Weakening any chance for a third Palestinian intifada in the West Bank, and going to the most important plan of the Israeli right by dividing the spatial location of Al-Aqsa Mosque, expanding the temporal division of Jewish extremists, and accelerating the plan to Judaize Al-Aqsa Mosque.
  • Israel's victory will most likely mean handing over Gaza to the Palestinian Authority and working quickly to implement the provisions of the Deal of the Century by force and by imposing a fait accompli, by annexing the Jordan Valley and the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which occupy more than 43% of the West Bank's lands for Israel, and establishing Palestinian self-rule with geographically unlimited cantons. Connected with work to start a soft displacement policy.
  • A leaked study revealed the Israeli plan to settle two million Palestinians in Egypt at a value of $8 billion, to build cities for Palestinians in Sinai, and to pay compensation that could reach $30 billion to the Egyptian state, provided that Gaza is completely bulldozed and Israeli settlements are built on it.
  • The Iranian project in the region has declined, the so-called axis of resistance has declined, and the American-Western-Israeli project has advanced and excelled. This means accelerating the rotation of the wheel of Arab normalization with the Zionist entity, making Israel the major power in the region, and returning the Turkish project to the square of understandings with the American-Israeli project, not contradicting and competing with it.

However, if a victory is achieved for the resistance , and by victory Awdat meant “the resistance and its weapons remaining in Gaza and negotiating over the prisoners,” the political scene in the region will be completely different, as follows:

  • The victory of the resistance means entrenching Hamas to be the primary force in the Palestinian cause, and the international community and Israel must deal with it as the most important player in determining the fate of the Palestinian cause and the decline of the role of the Palestinian Authority, which has become a structure without substance or substance.
  • The decline of the Israeli right and the end of Netanyahu’s political career, forcing the United States of America and the less right-wing movement in Israel to re-engage with the Jordanian story, narrative and perception, which is still adhering to and defending the option of the Arab initiative for a two-state solution and reproducing the idea of ??establishing a viable Palestinian state on the June 7 borders. In 1967, a Palestinian state was established on the entire territory of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the Jordan Valley.
  • The rearrangement of the Middle East and the stronger rise of Iran in many issues in the region, which will create Arab-Iranian understandings and expand the trend opposing the American project, with the possibility of a greater Turkish-Iranian rapprochement supported by Russia, a rapprochement that will strengthen Russia’s position and influence in the region.
  • Greater satisfaction for the encirclement countries, especially Jordan and Egypt, by getting rid of the displacement project, even if those countries accept that political Islam will benefit temporarily as a symptom of the victory of the resistance in Gaza, with their ability to keep political Islam under control and weakening in exchange for getting rid of the obsession with displacement and resettlement in Egypt and Jordan, with what it represents. A strategic threat to the national security of the cordon countries.
  • The wave of Arab-Israeli normalization has receded, as normalization was driven by the motivation of Israeli military and security superiority. An Israeli loss will show Israel’s strength in its true size, far from what Israel promotes of itself as a strong and superior security and military ally, with whom the Arab countries can cooperate in confronting the Iranian project.

No one can predict the results of the war. American-Western support for Israel is unlimited and unconditional, and no time limit has been set for it, and there is no Western popular pressure yet sufficient to stop it, which makes this war completely different from its counterparts from 2008 to 2023 on Gaza. At the same time, no one can estimate the strength of the ground resistance, as Hamas is a highly secretive organization and the size and quality of weapons flowing to it cannot be estimated by anyone, which makes all possibilities of war open.

It is certain that before October 7th is not like what comes after it, and that we are heading towards major political events and developments that will make all parties affected by the Palestinian issue vigilant, anxious and fearful and do not want the solution of the Palestinian issue to be in Israel’s favor at their expense.

Awdat concludeded that everything that has happened so far in the Israeli war and the aerial bombardment does not change anything on the ground, and only the results of the ground war will reshape the region, strengthen axes, weaken others, advance projects and retreat others. The Al-Aqsa Flood land war may be the biggest event of the twenty-first century in the Middle East and the Palestinian issue.

Bystanders

The Economist magazine presented the results of a survey conducted by DMR, an artificial intelligence technology company, on one million accounts from various social media platforms, for the period from October 7 to 23. The results of the poll showed that sympathy for Israel - which rose after the " Al-Aqsa Flood " operation on October 7th - has dried up.

The Economist referred to a user who wrote on his page, “At first I was angry with Hamas and Palestine because of the attacks, but now after seeing more of what is happening, I cannot support such a regime in Israel.” The poll observed a sharp shift against Israel over time since the Hamas attack, when the Israeli and Palestinian sides enjoyed the same shares of support on social media. By October 19, there were 3.9 times more pro-Palestinian posts than pro-Israeli posts.

Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Robert Satloff, and an expert at the same institute, Dennis Ross, a former official in charge of the peace process in several US administrations,, provided advice to Israel in order to contribute to improving its global image. The two experts stressed that Israel is losing the battlefield of public opinion, and with the pressure of massive protests in the streets, European and American politicians are already retreating from the strong support they promised Israel in the wake of the attacks of last October 7.

Over the past weeks, European capitals and American circles have remained silent in the face of calls for a ceasefire, and agreed with the Israeli vision that any ceasefire would be considered a victory for Hamas, but this position is changing now. The two experts considered that “there is a lot of anti-Semitism and double standards behind the position that demands Israel to cease fire,” but they acknowledged that Israel has lost millions who are not anti-Semites with good intentions who saw what happened last October 7, and saw what happened. Since then, they believe that Israel bears a great deal of responsibility for the human misery they see every night on screens or social media.

The two experts, who are known to be very close to Israeli decision-makers, provided three pieces of advice that contribute to supporting Israel’s position in the arena of conflict of ideas and international sympathy:

  1. First: Defining the goals of the Israeli war as destroying Hamas’ military capabilities and political ability to rule Gaza is necessary, but not sufficient, so Israel must declare that it has no plan, desire, or goal to occupy Gaza, expel the Palestinians, or retain the lands in Gaza from In order to protect its security.
  2. Second: Israel must distinguish between the Hamas movement and the Palestinian people, and repeat that its enemy is Hamas, and here Israel needs to impose discipline to prevent government ministers who are extremist politicians from obliterating this vital message.
  3. Third: Israel must do what it can to reduce civilian casualties, in addition to allowing more aid to enter and working with any international agency or Arab country that wants to help support Palestinian civilians.

Arab leaders publicly pressed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday to secure an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, hours after Palestinians said an Israeli air strike killed at least 15 people in a UN-run school being used as a shelter. In a rare open display of disagreement, the top US diplomat pushed back as he stood next to his Jordanian and Egyptian counterparts at a news conference, saying a ceasefire would only let Hamas regroup and launch more attacks on Israel.

"Right now we have to make sure that this war stops," Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told the news conference. Speaking at the same news conference, Safadi said: "We cannot allow this war to undermine all that has been done to bring about a just peace to the region." Safadi called for all sides to work together to "stop a catastrophe that will haunt the region for generations".

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, whose country had been acting as the sole conduit for foreigners to escape Gaza and for aid to get in, called for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire. "Egypt is doing its utmost to ensure the reception of aid and its delivery to the Gaza Strip, as well as providing assistance for the treatment of civilian casualties," Shoukry told the joint news conference. "In this context, I emphasised the importance of achieving an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza without any conditions or restrictions."

The United Nations condemned Israel's targeting of ambulances in Gaza and demanded an end to its aggression against the Strip, which has so far resulted in the deaths of more than 9,000 martyrs, most of whom are women and children. The international organization denounced Israel's bombing of an ambulance in front of Al-Shifa Medical Complex, which resulted in the death of 15 wounded people who were about to head to the Rafah crossing in the hope of receiving treatment abroad. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement that he was "horrified" by this strike, adding that "the images of bodies scattered in the street in front of the hospital are heartbreaking."

The Palestinian Red Crescent explained in a statement that “the convoy consisted of 5 ambulances,” including one belonging to the Ministry of Health in the Gaza government and one belonging to the Red Crescent, adding that the bombing occurred two meters from the entrance to Al-Shifa Hospital, the largest hospital in Gaza. He pointed out that a second ambulance was targeted “about a kilometer from the hospital” and injuries were reported.

International Committee of the Red Cross spokeswoman Ilona Sinenko said, "Whether the International Committee of the Red Cross is present or not, the fact remains that it is a medical convoy. Health facilities, as well as means of transporting patients and caregivers, enjoy special protection under international humanitarian law."

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that he was “deeply shocked,” recalling that “patients, caregivers, medical institutions, and ambulances must be protected at all times.” The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in the occupied Palestinian territories, Lynn Hastings, said on the X platform that she was “concerned” because the strike targeted “patients who were to be evacuated to safety.”

Axis of Resistance

Israeli analysts and military officials unanimously agreed that the speech of the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, carried within it veiled threatening messages to Israel, without giving the green light to launch a comprehensive war. They believe that Nasrallah adopted an approach of “evasion and deception” regarding the course of the war and its developments, while he seemed more ambiguous regarding the scenario of a multi-front war, as he kept all options open.

This initial discourse is a prelude to another address scheduled for November 11. The interval serves as a de facto deadline for the United States and other influential entities to mitigate the conflict. In the absence of progress, the tone of Nasrallah’s forthcoming speech may take on a decidedly different tone, possibly escalating the rhetoric if diplomatic solutions remain elusive.

Analyzes and assessments agreed on the need to be wary of Hezbollah, which has not said its final word. They agreed that the content of Hassan Nasrallah’s speech keeps the Lebanon front burning, and also continues to provoke the Israeli army. These are the contents that confuse Israel’s calculations and mix the cards for the ongoing war.

The speech marked the first in a series intended to solidify his argument and strategic position. Rather than issuing outright threats, Nasrallah delineated his “red lines” concerning Gaza with a level of ambiguity that sought to construct a calculated narrative. He carefully chose his moment, leveraging the speech to communicate with key players on the international stage instead of adopting the expected populist rhetoric.

Less fiery than anticipated, which disappointed some Palestinians and Arabs who were primed for a call to arms, Nasrallah’s approach demonstrated restraint. It reflected a situation where Hamas is in control in Gaza, diminishing the immediacy for drastic rhetoric from Nasrallah. His speech contained nuanced messages, particularly addressing the situation on the Lebanese front and the dynamic of civilian involvement, signalling his adeptness in psychological warfare and an awareness that Israeli officials are among his audience.

The Israeli analyzes warned against the belief that Hezbollah had abandoned Hamas by not opening a wide front in Lebanon, as well as against the rhetoric that promoted that Israeli deterrence seemed to be effective on the Lebanese front. The analyzes also did not rule out the possibility of Hezbollah adopting the element of surprise, and directing a blow to the Israeli depth.

In reading Nasrallah’s speech in the intelligence context, the former head of the Mossad’s intelligence department, Zohar Valti, believes that there is a tendency to give importance to the credibility of Nasrallah, “who in his speech is waging a psychological war against Israel, and even against America, and everyone who supports Israel in the Middle East.”

In an interview with Hebrew Channel 12, Valti indicated that Nasrallah did not abandon Hamas or Gaza, as some Israelis believe. He is acting out of responsibility towards Lebanon, and does not want to repeat the scenario of the 2006 war, especially since he sees the strategic influence of the United States and its army in the war on Gaza, where he holds the Americans and Israel responsible for what is happening there.

The former intelligence department official says that Nasrallah “returns to the concept of spider webs, as he makes it clear that Israel will not have existential continuity, and will not survive without the Americans,” noting that these statements by Nasrallah were not made by chance, but rather in conjunction with the visit of the US Secretary of State. Anthony Blinken to Israel. Michael Milstein, head of the Arab World Department at the “Institute for Policy and Strategy” at Reichmann University, in Herzliya, Israel, stressed that Nasrallah was cautious in his speech and messages, but “it is advisable for the Israelis to beware of optimism from the announced statement, that Hezbollah is not interested in An all-out war, or that Israeli deterrence has returned to the front with Lebanon.”

Milstein added that Nasrallah did not deliver his speech “in virtue of his role as Secretary-General of Hezbollah only, but rather as a representative of the entire Middle Eastern resistance camp led by Iran. At the heart of what he said was the achievement for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, and the success of this camp in consolidating its position in the Middle East.”

But for Israel, “the cautious content of the speech should not obscure any sense of optimism. Unlike ordinary listeners, it is appropriate that all decision-makers and security officials refrain from understanding the speech as weak and appeasement, that Hezbollah is deterred and that Nasrallah has his own concerns and inhibitions about waging an all-out war.” On Israel,” Milstein said.

The analyst believes that Nasrallah’s speech and its content are “strategic deception,” and says, “It is necessary to focus on Nasrallah’s clarification that his reactions will be derived from the nature of the battle in Gaza, and if this is accompanied by serious damage to Hamas, primarily the liquidation of its senior officials, which is what "It may lead to a large-scale escalation on the front with Lebanon."

Adeeb Ziadeh, a Palestinian expert in international affairs who participated in studies on Hamas, said that the movement must have a longer-term plan to pursue its attack on Israel. He added, "Those who carried out the attack of last October 7, with this level of competence, this level of experience, precision, and strength, must be prepared for a long-term battle. Hamas cannot enter into such an attack "Full and packed to face the result without being properly prepared."

Gaza's Hamas government suspended the evacuation of foreign passport holders to Egypt on Saturday after Israel refused to allow some wounded Palestinians to be evacuated to Egyptian hospitals, a border official said. "No foreign passport holder will be able to leave the Gaza Strip until wounded people who need to be evacuated from hospitals in north Gaza are transported through the Rafah crossing" to Egypt, the official said on condition of anonymity.

A Reuters report quotes two sources close to the Hamas leadership said that the movement has prepared for a long and protracted war in the Gaza Strip, and believes that it is able to obstruct the Israeli advance for a sufficient period to force its enemy to agree to submit to its conditions and to a ceasefire.

The two sources, who refused to reveal their identities due to the sensitivity of the situation, said that Hamas has equipment, weapons, missiles, and medical supplies, enabling its fighters - whose number is estimated at about 40,000 - to continue resistance for several months in a city of tunnels, dug deep into the Palestinian Strip.

The two sources indicated that in the end, Hamas believes that international pressure on Israel to end the siege could impose a ceasefire and reach a negotiated settlement that would obtain a tangible concession from the occupation. Such as: releasing thousands of Palestinian prisoners, in exchange for the release of Israeli prisoners.

The agency quoted four Hamas officials, a regional official, and a source familiar with the White House’s thinking approach, stating that the movement made clear to the United States and Israel, during indirect negotiations, that it wants to impose such a prisoner release, in exchange for the release of its prisoners.

In the longer term, Hamas said that it wants to end the 17-year-long Israeli siege on Gaza, as well as stop Israeli settlement expansion, and stop Israeli violations in Al-Aqsa Mosque and the occupied city of Jerusalem.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcedthat he will sever his contacts with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against the backdrop of the ongoing Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip since last October 7 following Operation Al- Aqsa Flood launched by the Palestinian resistance. Erdogan added that Netanyahu is no longer a person to talk to as he is directly responsible for what is happening in Gaza, stressing that he is also a person who angers the Israeli people, as he has supported his citizens and seeks to mobilize support for the massacres he is committing in the Gaza Strip by using religious expressions.

Erdogan continued that Turkey must assume a leadership role regarding stopping the war on Gaza, explaining that this will be a development that will shape history, the present and the future. Erdogan criticized the international position on the Israeli aggression on Gaza, saying that "the European Union played a strange role during this period and did not adopt a fair approach regarding what is happening in Palestine."

Erdogan added that the international community turns a blind eye to the injustice committed by Israel against the Palestinians and its attempt to destroy the health system in Gaza, leaving civilians, patients and infants in the Strip at risk of death. Erdogan denounced how some countries that tolerate what he described as terrorist organizations, under the guise of "freedom of expression," banned the Palestinian flag, which symbolizes the entire Palestinian people.

Turkey, which has sharply criticised Israel and Western countries as the humanitarian crisis has intensified in Gaza,supports a two-state solution and hosts members of Hamas. Ankara does not consider Hamas a terrorist organisation, unlike the United States, the European Union, and some Gulf states.

Allied for Democracy

Israel does not care about what anybody in the international community is saying, and they’re intent on proceeding in the same direction they have. The British Economist magazine said that Israel's war in Gaza is the bloodiest conflict between Israelis and Palestinians since 1948, noting that Israeli generals believe it will continue for months or perhaps a year. The magazine attributed to Israeli generals their expectation that international pressures would force them in the coming weeks to return to a more limited area inside Gaza, so that the war would turn into raids against limited targets, and quoted them as saying that they expected the war to take months and perhaps a year.

Hamas did not want to engage in direct combat with the Israeli forces and instead will seek to harass them with guerrilla warfare, noting that Israeli military sources believe that it has a short opportunity to work in large formations inside Gaza in order to destroy tunnels and command centers to disrupt the freedom of the Hamas movement and divide its fighters. Divisions within the Israeli government affected the military decision-making process, which explains why Israeli forces remained in staging areas near the Gaza Strip for two weeks until the incursion was ordered.

Netanyahu had so far not accepted personal responsibility for the failures that allowed the surprise assault. As the initial shock has faded, public anger has grown, with many families of the hostages held in Gaza bitterly critical of the government response and calling for their relatives to be brought home. In Tel Aviv, thousands demonstrated, waving flags and holding photographs of some of the captives in Gaza and posters with slogans like "Release the hostages now at all costs".

Axios reported that Israel informed the United States about a contingency plan for getting fuel into southern Gaza under international monitoring as overwhelmed hospitals continue to run out. Two unnamed Israeli officials told the news organisation that tankers from Egypt would enter Gaza with enough fuel to operate hospitals and other humanitarian facilities for a set amount of time. Each tanker would be accompanied by a UN team that would closely monitor and make sure the fuel is delivered to hospitals for the intended purpose, the news report said. The plan requires approval from Israel’s war cabinet.

A survey published on several Israeli media outlets suggests that if Israel held a parliamentary election now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would see a steep drop in its seats from 32 to 18. Overall, his governing ultranationalist far-right coalition would get 42 seats compared with 78 for the opposition, according to the poll. To achieve a majority, a party or coalition must hold more than 60 seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament, or Knesset.

As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held talks in Jordan with Arab foreign ministers, he faced a perception problem in the region, according to FRANCE 24 International News Commentator Douglas Herbert. “Blinken is on a mission right now that we have to see through a split screen. On the one hand, Blinken is pressing the official US policy of unstinting support for Israel. At the same time, and this has been growing in volume, the stance that the civilian population of Gaza must be protected,” says Herbert.

“The reality is, most of the world only sees one thing when they look at US policy. They don’t hear the part with Blinken calling for humanitarian policies,” he explains. “They remember [US President Joe] Biden’s embrace of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu early in this conflict and the US saying we have your back – and Blinken reiterating that message.”

CNN reported that US President Joe Biden and his senior advisors strongly warned Israel that it would become difficult for it to continue achieving its military goals in Gaza , with global anger intensifying over the extent of human suffering there. The network explained in its report that Biden, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken all put pressure and frankly told the Israelis that the erosion of support would have dire strategic consequences on Israel’s military operations against the Islamic Resistance Movement “ Hamas .”

The network said that behind the scenes, American officials believe that there is a limited time for Israel to achieve its stated goal of removing Hamas in its current operation, before the uproar over human suffering and civilian casualties reaches a turning point. It added that there is recognition within the administration that the turning point may arrive quickly and that there are only weeks, not months, until the Israeli rejection of American pressure to cease fire becomes untenable.

However, the network said there was no sign of the Israeli attack slowing down, and one source said that Biden "didn't like this at all." The network quoted a senior White House official as saying that the problem for Israel is that criticism is increasing even among its best friends.

US President Joe Biden said progress had been made on securing a so-called “humanitarian pause”. When asked if any progress had been made on the issue, Biden replied “yes” as he left a church in Delaware and offered a thumbs up before getting into his vehicle. He did not give any further details.

A junior officer in the US State Department drafted a dissent cable to demand a change in the White House’s support for Israel’s military operations inside Gaza, according to a report by Axios. “In light of Hamas’s heinous attack on October 7, the ensuing response by the Government of Israel, and the seemingly full endorsement by the U.S. government to the response, we have drafted a dissent cable calling for a significant change in the Administration’s short and long-term policy surround the conflict,” Sylvia Yacoub, a foreign affairs officer in the Bureau of Middle East Affairs, wrote in an email seen by the news outlet.

A dissent cable is supposed to be a way to express criticism privately inside the State Department through a classified system without risk of retribution. The email was the latest sign displaying disagreement among government staff over the US’s policy on Israel. Last month, State Department official Josh Paul resigned, citing “our continued lethal assistance to Israel”.

Israel’s “indiscriminate” killing of civilians in Gaza is unacceptable, US Senator Bernie Sanders said, describing the situation as “one of the more horrific moments in modern history”. “Israel has a right to defend itself. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that. But what they are doing now in an indiscriminate way – bombing refugee camps, bombing ambulances, killing thousands of innocent men, women and children in violation of international law – is simply not acceptable. It has got to stop.”

He noted the US provides $3.8bn every year to Israel. “If they’re going to take our money and [President] Biden wants to give them even more, they have got to recognize that they cannot offend American values, what we stand for, what the civilized world stands for.”

 



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