Burma Insurgency - Nationwide Cease-fire Accord (NCA) - October 2015
The immensely complex peace process began under former president Thein Sein (2011-2016), who convinced eight ethnic armed organizations to sign a nationwide cease-fire accord (NCA) in October 2015. Two other groups signed the accord in February 2018, though eight others still have not. The 10 armed groups that have signed the NCA are the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front, Arakan Liberation Party, Chin National Front, Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, Karen National Union, Karen National Liberation Army Peace Council, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, the Restoration Council of Shan State, New Mon State Party, and Lahu Democratic Union. Those which have not signed are the United Wa State Army, Kachin Independence Army, National Democratic Alliance Army (Mongla group), Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army-North, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (Kokang group), Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Arakan Army, and Karenni National Progressive Party. The FPNCC [Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee] was set up in 2017 to represent ethnic armies that had not signed the NCA.
The outbreak of armed conflicts in northern Myanmar in November 2016 came at a critical time in Myanmar's peace process. Police in Myanmar’s northernmost Kachin state have increased security amid fighting by four ethnic militias that had joined forces to attack government targets in neighboring Shan state, leaving 10 dead and forcing thousands of residents to flee their homes. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA) launched coordinated attacks on military outposts, police stations, and a trade center in Muse and Kutkai townships in northern Shan state.
The four militias on 21 November 2016 released a joint statement requesting civilians in the area to take precautions. The statement also said that the Myanmar military had continued to attack ethnic armed groups, including those that signed a nationwide cease-fire accord with government in October 2015. The government excluded the AA, MNDAA, and TNLA from signing the agreement. Activities along the 105-mile trade zone southeast of Muse in Shan state’s Kutkai township came to a standstill because of the clashes, and the militia groups have warned locals not to travel.
Some of the ethnic groups that were at odds with the Myanmar government have populations on both sides of the China Myanmar border. The demands of ethnic groups range widely with some striving for independence and others increased autonomy. The latest armed conflicts exerted negative pressure on the national reconciliation advocated by Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD). All in all, the four ethnic armed groups may intend to use the efforts of Suu Kyi, the NLD and China to force Myanmar troops to make concessions so that the rebels can secure their occupied areas.
From November 2013, the Myanmar government and armed ethnic groups held nine rounds of peace talks and eventually reached a national cease-fire agreement. By November 2016, eight groups had signed the agreement. In April 2016, Suu Kyi expressed her hopes for convening a national reconciliation conference like the 1947 Panglong Conference and making more ethnic armed groups join the cease-fire agreement. On August 31, the 21st Century Panglong Conference held its first meeting and announced the conference will be held every six months, in the hope that complete peace can be achieved across Myanmar by 2019 or 2020.
All members of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), an alliance of nine ethnic armed groups that did not sign a nationwide cease-fire agreement with the previous government in October 2015, attended the peace conference in order to participate in political dialogue so it can push for the formation of a federal union in Myanmar. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Arakan Army (AA) were not invited to participate because they have refused to lay down their arms in advance of the talks.
A group of ethnic militias decided on 24 February 2017 not to sign the Myanmar government’s nationwide peace pact on the last day of their three-day summit at the headquarters of the country’s strongest ethnic rebel force, but instead formed a committee to discuss a “new path to peace,” a military official from the conference said. Leaders from seven ethnic militias that have not signed the government’s October 2015 nationwide cease-fire agreement (NCA)—including the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)—and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), attended the conference.
The meeting, hosted by Wa and Mongla ethnic groups from the mountainous region of eastern Myanmar’s Shan state on the border with China, was held at the headquarters of the United Wa State Army (UWSA)—Myanmar’s largest nonstate militia—in Pangkham, the administrative capital of the militia's territory. UWSA chairman Bao Youxing told delegates at the meeting in Pangkham that “a new path to peace” is necessary because the government’s efforts to get other ethnic militias to sign the NCA have lost their momentum.
Aung San Suu Kyi held four sessions of the 21st-century Panglong Conference since taking office in 2016. During her tenure, only two other ethnic armed groups joined the nationwide cease-fire agreement (NCA), the peace pact forged in 2015 between the Thein Sein government and eight ethnic armies. “We have ending the civil wars as our top priority,” said NLD spokesman Myo Nyunt. The prospect for further discussions look positive after the recent post-election developments, he added. “This is very good sign indicating that there will be significant progress in the next five years, and it will be different from the last five years,” he said.
The Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), an alliance of some of the largest of rebel forces that have been at war with the central government for decades and have resisted signing the NCA because they want to keep their armies, issued a statement on Nov. 18 welcoming the NLD’s election victory and pledging to work with the government toward national reconciliation based on equal partnership. The FPNCC proposed a confederate system in Myanmar that allows ethnic organizations to maintain their own armed forces — a move that the Myanmar military strongly opposes. Other FPNCC members, and three other NCA non-signatories — the AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) — issued separate announcements on Nov. 20 welcoming the NLD’s victory and expressing a willingness to work with the new government and the military on securing a nationwide peace pact.
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