Government Shutdown
A central pillar of Project 2025, a plan for a potential second Trump administration published by the Heritage Foundation and other conservative groups, was to fire potentially thousands of federal workers and replace them with politically loyal staff. The plan relies on a controversial interpretation of the unitary executive theory, arguing for near-total presidential control over the executive branch and its agencies. The plan called for the dismantling or severe reduction of numerous federal agencies, including the Department of Education, Department of Homeland Security, and Environmental Protection Agency.
The "administrative state" refers to the body of unelected civil servants within federal agencies and departments who implement and manage government programs and regulations. Critics, particularly from the political right, have characterized it as an unaccountable "deep state" that obstructs the will of elected officials. Government shutdowns were discussed by some as a potential way to dismantle the administrative state and weaken the federal bureaucracy, often labeled the "deep state" by critics. Former President Trump and others associated with the Project 2025 plan have used the threat of a government shutdown to push for radical reductions in federal agencies and personnel. The current government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, has been explicitly used by the Trump administration to attempt thousands of illegal layoffs and cut programs.
The argument for using a government shutdown as a tool to dismantle it relies on a few key ideas. During a shutdown, non-essential personnel are furloughed, and those seen as "disloyal" to the administration can be targeted for permanent termination. The Trump administration attempted to fire thousands of federal employees during the Octobr 2025 shutdown, with plans reportedly linked to Project 2025. Shutdowns can be used to specifically defund and weaken agencies disliked by the administration. This was seen during the 2025 shutdown, with agencies like the EPA, CDC, and Department of Education being targeted for cuts. The deliberate disruption and chaos of a shutdown can be seen as an opportunity to disrupt government functions and discredit the federal bureaucracy.
As of late September 2025, over 200,000 employees had left the federal workforce because of Trump’s actions, including about 55,000 that were fired. As of early 2025, the US government had employed approximately 2.3 million federal civilians. As of early 2025, the number of "non-Defense" federal civilian employees was approximately 1.5 million. This is calculated by taking the total federal civilian workforce and subtracting the number of civilian employees within the Department of Defense (DoD). DOD was working to shrink its civilian workforce by about 60,000 jobs, down from the 811,000 reported in DOD's 2024 Financial Report. According to contingency plana, the War Deprtment had 741,500 civilian employees as of September 2025. Nearly half of DoD civilian employees would be furloughed in the event of a shutdown.
This number excludes military personnel, postal workers, and federal contractors. The US Postal Service employed over 600,000 workers as of late 2024, but these are typically excluded from federal civilian employee counts. Uniformed Personnel number roughly 1.3 million. This does not include the National Guard and reserves, which add another 761,000 service members. Approximately 775,000 civilians work for the Department of Defense, making it the largest employer in the federal government. The civilian workforce across hundreds of federal departments and independent agencies include: Department of Veterans Affairs (~433,700 employees in 2023) Department of Homeland Security (~212,000 employees in 2023), Department of Justice (~117,100 employees in 2025), and Department of the Treasury (~114,000 employees in 2025). The remaining headcount outseid these "power ministries" was about 475,000 federal civilian employees.
President Trump and Project 2025 author Russell Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), moved to fire thousands of federal employees during the government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. They may also try to withhold backpay for furloughed employees who remain employed. OMB claimed that programs whose funding has lapsed are no longer statutorily required to be carried out. However, a temporary lapse in appropriations does not repeal an agency’s statutory duties or obligations. The President does not have the authority to unilaterally end programs that he disagrees with. That power—the power of the purse—lies with Congress. Vought further amended shutdown guidance on October 3 to strip away references to guaranteed backpay for furloughed employees.
The Trump administration began laying off federal workers on Friday, October 10, 2025, as Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought announced that reductions in force had commenced. An OMB spokesperson confirmed the layoffs were substantial but declined to specify which departments were affected. The move represented the latest blow to a federal workforce that had already declined by 200,000 employees over the course of the year.
President Trump characterized the cuts as targeting programs popular with Democrats but not with Republicans, framing the layoffs as part of his broader effort to reduce what he referred to as the "deep state." The administration leveraged the ongoing government shutdown as justification for the permanent job cuts, with Vought having previously issued a memo threatening mass layoffs if a shutdown was triggered. Those familiar with the layoff process noted that such actions typically required weeks or longer to plan, raising questions about whether these firings had been in motion before the shutdown began.
The federal government entered a shutdown on 01 October 2025. A government shutdown, whether partial or full, impacts a variety of services and programs. If there is a shutdown, authorities will still enforce laws, respond to emergencies, and maintain the nation's defense; however, there will be impacts to many peoples' daily lives. During a government shutdown, essential services related to national security and public safety, like inpatient and emergency medical care, air traffic control, law enforcement, border security, disaster aid, and power grid maintenance, continue, though they may face disruptions. A shutdown does not impact payments of Social Security benefits, including Disability Income or Retirement Income. President Trump took the government shutdown as an "unprecedented opportunity" to consolidate control in the Oval Office, accelerating a trend toward unchecked power. Many Democrats sawthe shutdown as a necessary evil to slow Trump's steamrolling of democratic norms and independent institutions. But the standoff only emboldened the White House. Despite President Trump claiming that he would ensure members of the U.S. Armed Forces continue to be paid during the government shutdown, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refused the possibility of the House carrying out a stand-alone vote on legislation to continue paying troops through the shutdown, stating, “The job in the House is done.” The bill, which was introduced by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), which received 122 bipartisan co-sponsors in the House, covering pay for all servicemembers in the armed forces through the shutdown, including the Coast Guard. Since the shutdown began, Johnson rejected calls to bring the House into session, with their last vote taking place on September 19th.
Trump said 11 October 2025 his administration had identified out a way to get military service members their upcoming check during the ongoing government shutdown. “We have identified funds to do this, and Secretary (Pete) Hegseth will use them to PAY OUR TROOPS,” Trump said in an Oct. 11 post on Truth Social. If successful the maneuver could shift some of the focus in the messaging war between the White House and congressional Democrats, as the president looked to apply pressure to end the stalemate.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he was meeting with White House budget chief Russ Vought to discuss what "Democrat agencies" should get cuts. Trump flaunted Vought's role in Project 2025 ("he of PROJECT 2025 Fame") — the hard-right blueprint for expanding executive power that Trump disavowed during the campaign. For Vought, the shutdown offered a unique opening: a live test of theories he has spent years refining on how to weaken Congress, purge the bureaucracy and concentrate power in the presidency. Already, Vought had announced the termination of nearly $8 billion in funding for clean-energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and have Democratic senators. He also froze $18 billion in New York City infrastructure projects, a dig at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Trump threatened to use the first government shutdown since 2019 to push through mass firings and slash social programmes unless Democrats give up their demands for health care funding. “The cruelty is the point,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said. The aggressive approach coming from the Trump administration is what certain lawmakers and budget observers feared if Congress, which has the responsibility to pass legislation to fund the government, failed to do its work and relinquished control to the White House.
The Trump administration can tap into funds to pay workers at the Defense Department and Homeland Security from what’s commonly called the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that was signed into law this summer, according to CBO. That would ensure Trump’s immigration enforcement and mass deportation agenda is uninterrupted. But employees who remain on the job at many other agencies will have to wait for government to reopen before they get a paycheck.
Rather than simply furlough employees, as is usually done during any lapse in funds, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said layoffs were “imminent”. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announced it was putting on hold roughly $18 billion in infrastructure funds slated for subway and Hudson Tunnel projects in New York – the hometown of the Democratic leaders of both the House and the US Senate.
Trump marveled over his budget director. “He can trim the budget to a level that you couldn’t do any other way,” the president said at the start of the week of OMB Director Russ Vought, who was also a chief architect of the far-right Project 2025 "wish list", which Trump had disavowed but which has seemingly informed many of his policy choices since his return to power.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that roughly 750,000 federal workers would be furloughed on any given day during the shutdown, a loss of $400 million daily in wages. The Democrats were holding fast to their demands to preserve healthcare funding and refusing to back any budget bill that fails to do so, warning of an untenable rise in prices for millions of Americans nationwide. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates insurance premiums will more than double for people who buy policies on the Affordable Care Act exchanges, also known as Obamacare.
By late December 2024, unless Congress passed a Continuing Resolution, all “non-essential” federal action would halt Friday midnight aka Saturday 20 December 2024 at 12:01 AM. But a last-minute budget bill passed in the United States House of Representatives to keep the federal government funded and running through mid-March, averting an impending shutdown. The continuing resolution went to the Senate with only hours to spare. The temporary budget legislation sailed through the House with an overwhelming 366 votes in support. Only 34 representatives, all Republican, voted against the bill.
Republicans and Democrats unveiled a stopgap measure on 17 December 2024 to keep federal agencies funded through 14 March 2025, which would avert a partial government shutdown that would otherwise begin 21 December 2024. The measure would keep the roughly $6.2 trillion federal budget running at its current level There was an agreement between Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate — until Elon Musk ordered Republicans to break it. Elon Musk announced he hated the bipartisan compromise bill and would fund primary opponents to any Republican who voted for it. Then Donald Trump demanded that Republicans defeat the compromise bill. Republicans scrapped the bipartisan budget deal after Elon Musk said he opposed it & Donald Trump followed suit.
After once again moving the country toward a government shutdown, the House GOP on 20 December 2024 was pushing a Plan C: separate votes on short-term funding, disaster relief, and farming. Punchbowl News founder Jake Sherman said that at the GOP's leadership meeting, a slide was displayed for a debt ceiling agreement that would "raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion in the 'first reconciliation package' alongside a promise to CUT $2.5 trillion in 'net mandatory spending in the reconciliation process.'"
Musk's proposed cuts of $2 trillion, announced at the time of the November election, would represent around a cut of around 30% of total federal government spending. "'Shutting down' the government (which doesn't actually shut down critical functions btw) is infinitely better than passing a horrible bill," Musk wrote in one of dozens of X posts railing against the continuing resolution.
Vice President-elect JD Vance released a joint statement from himself and Trump demanding a streamlined spending bill. "Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025. The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling," read the statement posted by Vance on X. "Anything else is a betrayal of our country," their statement read.
Social Security and SSI recipients will continue to receive their Social Security and SSI checks. Medicare, Medicaid, and disability insurance beneficiaries will continue to receive their benefits.
There are approximately 420,000 federal employees, deemed "essential," including FBI agents, DEA agents, Secret Service agents, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents, who are being required to work without pay during the Trump Shutdown. Approximately 380,000 federal employees who have been placed on unpaid furlough.
The employees classified as "excepted" work without pay during the shutdown. The employees classified as "not excepted" are put on unpaid furlough. But federal contractors impacted are not guaranteed backpay. All active-duty and Guard and Reservists on active-duty orders are excepted and therefore are required to work without pay. Air traffic controllers, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents will remain on the job without pay.
During a shutdown, permanent layoffs (reductions-in-force, or RIFs) cannot typically be initiated. Some agencies may attempt this, as was seen in October 2025, but the legality is contested and often faces legal challenges from federal employee unions. A shutdown does not give the administration special legal authority to fire employees. Key government functions, especially those related to public safety, national security, and mandatory spending, are designated as "essential" and continue operating. This means the shutdown only affects certain parts of the bureaucracy, not the entire system. A shutdown is, by nature, a temporary lapse in funding. Once new appropriations are approved, agencies are restored. Furloughed employees are often paid retroactively, and programs typically resume. The tactic does not provide a mechanism for permanently reining in agencies. Rather than making government more efficient, analysts say a shutdown diminishes agency capacity by demoralizing and removing experienced civil servants, which can cause significant delays in critical services. Critics argue that using a shutdown to attack government workers is a politically motivated tactic that harms public services and undermines the very idea of a professional, nonpartisan civil service.
Rep. Jim McGovern noted " The one big thing nobody is talking about: Did Elon want to shut the government down because of his business deals with China? Trump didn’t get the one thing he wanted in the government funding deal: A debt ceiling increase so he could give himself and his billionaire friends a tax break. But you know who got exactly what he wanted? Elon Musk... The original funding bill (that he killed) included what’s called an “outbound investment” provision—which would limit & screen U.S. money flowing to China. That would have made it easier to keep cutting-edge AI and quantum computing tech—as well as jobs—in America. But Elon had a problem. His second-largest market is China. He’s building huge factories there. His bottom line depends on staying in China’s good graces. He wants to build an AI data center there too—which could endanger U.S. security. He’s been bending over backwards to ingratiate himself with Chinese leaders.
"So what did Elon do? He tanked the whole thing—telling Trump to oppose it, and threatening to primary anyone who voted yes. And to cover his tracks, he claimed it was about “spending” (even though Trump wanted to suspend the debt limit for unlimited spending). What did Trump get out of all this? Nothing. But President Musk got what he wanted: The ability to sell out the U.S. so he could make money in China. It’s all one big game to these guys. I hate it, because they’re hurting regular people.
"This time, Democrats won. We stopped Trump from being able to cut taxes for billionaires. But Elon’s ability to kill a bill on China that would hurt his bank account shows you exactly who Republicans work for. It’s not you. It’s the billionaires and special interests who don’t give a shit about you. Democrats can win—but we need to show up & expose this corruption every. single. time.""
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