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Syria - 2021 Presidential Election

The International Syria Support Group (ISSG) envisioned presidential election and a new round of parliamentary elections in the October 2017 timeframe. UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura said 11 March 2016 that reaching an agreement on a new all-inclusive government would be one of the key points during upcoming peace talks in Geneva. "The most important point is the three-point agenda, which has been defined by the Security Council and which the Russian Federation adopted, too, which is resolution 2254. The first one is an all-inclusive new government," de Mistura said in an interview.

“The second one is a new constitution and the third one is new elections in 18 months from the beginning of the talks, so from the 14th of this month, to provide both parliamentarian and presidential elections and the UN supervision in 18 months. So my hope is that we may progress, on paper or not on paper, but to progress on, at least, on the first item during the first phase of these talks,” de Mistura said.

On 31 March 2016, Assad raised the possibility of holding an early snap presidential election, too, telling a Russian media outlet that he was ready to do so, if the Syrian people wanted it. "This depends on the Syrian people’s stance, on whether there is a popular will to hold early presidential elections,” he said. Assad didn’t explain how that “popular will” would be communicated.

The Syrian leader emphasized that snap presidential elections were not a part of the current political process. "It has been proposed to hold parliamentary elections after the new constitution [has been adopted]. These elections will show the balance of powers on the political arena. Then, a new government will be formed in accordance with the representation of political forces in the new parliament… As for presidential elections, that is a an entirely different issue," Assad said.

Syria is to hold a presidential election on 26 May 2021, the parliament speaker announced 18 April 2021, the country’s second in the shadow of civil war, seen as likely to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. Syrians abroad will be “able to vote at embassies” on May 20, Hamouda Sabbagh said in a statement, adding that prospective candidates could hand in their applications from 19 April 2021.

Assad, who took power following the death of his father Hafez in 2000, has not yet officially announced that he will stand for re-election. He won a previous election three years into Syria’s devastating civil war in 2014, with 88 percent of the vote. Under Syria’s 2012 constitution, a president may only serve two seven-year terms — except for the president elected in the 2014 poll. Candidates must have lived continuously in Syria for at least 10 years, meaning that opposition figures in exile are barred from standing.

President Bashar Assad has ruled the Syrian Arab Republic since 2000. The constitution mandates the primacy of Baath Party leaders in state institutions and society, and Assad and Baath Party leaders dominated all three branches of government as an authoritarian regime. An uprising against the regime that began in 2011 continued throughout the year. The 2014 presidential election resulted in the re-election of Assad, and the Baath Party-led National Progressive Front won 177 of the 250 seats in the People’s Council 2020 parliamentary elections. These elections took place in an environment of widespread regime coercion, and many Syrians residing in opposition-held territory did not participate in the elections. Observers did not consider the elections free or fair.

As of August 2020 the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported there were 6.6 million internally displaced persons, 2.6 million of whom were children, and more than 5.5 million Syrian registered refugees outside the country. The UN Commission of Inquiry for Syria found it probable that the regime, its Russian allies, and other proregime forces committed attacks “marked by war crimes” that “may amount to crimes against humanity” during these attacks.

Significant human rights issues included: unlawful or arbitrary killings by the regime; forced disappearances by the regime; torture, including torture involving sexual violence; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions, including denial of medical care; prolonged arbitrary detention; political prisoners and detainees; serious problems with the independence of the judiciary; and arbitrary or unlawful interference with privacy.

There were numerous reports of political prisoners and detainees. The Syrian Center for Media and Freedom of Expression reported the regime continued to detain civilians systematically. At greatest risk were those perceived to oppose the regime, including peaceful demonstrators, human rights activists, and political dissidents and their families. The four government intelligence agencies–Air Force, Military, Political Security, and General–were responsible for most such arrests and detentions.

The law contains a number of speech offenses that limit the freedom of expression, including provisions criminalizing expression that, for example, “weakens the national sentiment” in times of war or defames the president, courts, military, or public authorities. For example, Article 376 imposes a one- to three-year sentence on anyone who criticizes or insults the president. The regime routinely characterized expression as illegal, and individuals could not criticize the regime publicly or privately without fear of reprisal. The regime also stifled criticism by invoking provisions of law prohibiting acts or speech inciting sectarianism. The regime monitored political meetings and relied on informer networks.

The United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy denounced Syria's presidential election, saying it would be neither "free nor fair." They said in a joint statement "We, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States of America wish to make clear that Syria's May 26 presidential election will neither be free nor fair... We denounce the Assad regime's decision to hold an election outside of the framework described in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and we support the voices of all Syrians, including civil society organisations and the Syrian opposition, who have condemned the electoral process as illegitimate." The United States and the four European nations said free and fair elections should be convened under UN supervision and "all Syrians should be allowed to participate." They said "Without these elements, this fraudulent election does not represent any progress towards a political settlement".

With a sham democratic show portraying him as the patriotic popular leader who has achieved a sweeping victory, the regime will exploit the results to boost its legitimacy locally and internationally. A grinding civil war that started ten years ago has allowed the regime to retain control, and with the support of Moscow and Tehran and its proxies, regain territories previously lost in ongoing battles. The bulk of Syria is under Assad’s grip, his re-election and continuity in his post for seven years seem unquestionable. This marked his fourth re-election.

For Thomas Pierret, a senior researcher at The Institute of Research and Study on the Arab and Muslim Worlds (IREMAM), an election under Assad's rule is a "power display" and a "ritual" which is meant to force people, particularly those who live in former opposition-held areas, to come to the ballot box and "enact their own submission to the regime". Pierret told TRT World “The main purpose of the election was not so much to target the regime supporters but those Syrians who don't support Assad but live under Assad's control”. Assad’s loyalists have been increasingly raising their criticism of the regime amid a hard-hitting economic crisis that pushed the country's poverty line to around 90 per cent. But his hardcore supporters remain as loyal as ever.

With the excluded Syrians abroad, people in refugee camps in northeastern Syria as well as others who live in the last rebel stronghold didn’t participate in the elections, only around 25 per cent of the population was able to vote in the elections.

President Bashar Assad was reelected to a fourth term with over 95% of the votes cast, defeating two challengers – including a former senior official of a rebel coalition, Syrian authorities announced. Turnout in the election was claimed to be 78%, with Assad winning over 13 million votes, according to Hammouda Sabbagh, speaker of the Syrian legislature. Mahmoud Ahmad Marei, who previously served as secretary-general of the rebel coalition National Front for the Liberation of Syria, received some 407,000 votes, while Abdullah Sallum Abdullah of the Socialist Unionist Party came in third with about 213,000 votes.