Serbia - Elections 2022
The Republic of Serbia is a constitutional, multiparty, parliamentary democracy, led by a president. The 2022 election will determine the office of the President of Serbia. It is expected to be held by 3 April 2022. A snap parliamentary election was announced by President Aleksandar Vucic shortly after the 2020 elections. It was held alongside the presidential elections on 3 April 2022.
The country held extraordinary elections for seats in the unicameral National Assembly (parliament) on June 21 and presidential elections in 2017. International observers stated the country efficiently organized the June 21 elections in difficult circumstances, but the dominance of the ruling party, the opposition parties’ lack of access to the media, and the lack of media diversity overall limited voters’ choice.
A coalition led by President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party won an overwhelming majority with 188 of 250 parliamentary seats and more than 60 percent of the vote. The Republic Electoral Commission ruled that elections had to be rerun in 234 of 8,253 municipalities–an unusually high number–due to calculation errors in the voting and other confirmed irregularities. In 2017 Vucic, leader of the Serbian Progressive Party, was elected president, winning approximately 55 percent of the vote in the first round. International observers stated that the 2017 presidential election was mostly free but that campaigning ahead of these elections was tilted to benefit the ruling party.
Vucic and his party benefitted from prolific media access unavailable to other parties, the effectively blurred distinction between campaign and official activities, and the inability of other parties to campaign during the COVID-19 state of emergency. The global pandemic prevented the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) from sending election observers as originally planned.
Most established opposition parties chose to boycott the parliamentary elections, citing credible concerns regarding unbalanced media coverage, allegations of pressure on voters, and misuse of administrative resources to benefit the ruling party. The decision was preceded by an opposition boycott of the parliamentary elections that began in November 2018 for the same stated reasons. Credible civil society organizations raised similar concerns about the electoral environment, although other mainstream political analysts judged that an important factor in the opposition’s decision to boycott was to conceal their low level of popular support.
The Nations in Transit 2020 report from the watchdog organization Freedom House downgraded the country from a “semiconsolidated democracy” to a “transitional or hybrid regime,” citing deterioration of media freedoms as one of the country’s biggest problems. In its 2020 World Press Freedom Index, the NGO Reporters without Borders noted, “Serbia has become a country where it is often dangerous to be a journalist and where fake news is gaining in visibility and popularity at an alarming rate.” Unbalanced media coverage and a large volume of fake, misleading, or unverified news stories continued to threaten the ability of citizens to participate meaningfully in the democratic process.
Independent media were active but were limited in their ability to express a wide variety of views by the oversaturation of the media market and government support of progovernment outlets. The media market was oversaturated with more than 2,500 registered outlets, many of which were not profitable. Television was the most influential media format due to concentration of viewership and popularity. There were five national terrestrial television-broadcasting licenses in Serbia, and television stations were heavily dependent on government advertising monies. This concentration and dependence on government advertising monies strongly benefited incumbents during election periods and made it difficult for opposition leaders to communicate with potential voters.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's reelection campaign was a highly organized affair — and nothing was left to chance — with thousands of supporters arriving in buses to take part in the rallies. Independent Serbian media outlets report that municipal employees are required to attend. "We want to achieve an even clearer victory this time, with Serbia voting for the future, liberty and stability," Vucic said at a recent rally.
Polls suggest the incumbent could maintain the presidency in the first round of voting — and his party is expected to win an absolute majority. Serbia's fractured opposition parties could, however, make gains in Belgrade's regional elections. For 10 years, Aleksandar Vucic has held leadership posts in Serbia. His Serbian Progressive Party controls most major television stations and tabloid papers, in addition to state-run companies and municipal administrations.
On television chat shows, opposition lawmakers are regularly vilified as thieves and traitors. Vucic has referred to his political party as a catch-all movement for everyone, regardless of ideology. The party has some 700,000 members — that's one-tenth of Serbia's entire population. The reason, however, is that it's almost impossible to get a job in the civil service, government, or state-owned companies without a party membership card.
That left Serbia's opposition with limited options for winning over voters. Their main campaign issues are addressing corruption, environmental degradation, and drawing attention to the government's alleged ties to the mafia — none of these issues garnered much attention since war broke out in Ukraine.
Opposition parties largely boycotted the 2020 parliamentary elections, citing unfair conditions. This year, several opposition coalitions are expected to win seats in the legislature. The United Serbia coalition, a broad alliance of centrist parties, is projected to take between 15% and 20% of the vote. Their presidential candidate, Zdravko Ponos, a retired chief of staff in the Serbian armed forces, could fare even better. The green alliance Moramo, meaning "We Must," could also pass the 3% threshold and enter parliament. Unimaginable in Serbia until recently, the environmental parties gained momentum from their fight against the Rio Tinto mine.
The country's nationalists and right-wing camp, in contrast, appears more fractured, fielding five presidential candidates and just as many electoral lists. Their positions and nationalist slogans. do resonate with many voters. More than 80% of Serbians say they reject joining NATO, and two-thirds say Russia is Serbia's most important partner. Even so, Serbia's right-wing and nationalists don't have a good chance of securing any seats. Many in Serbia are more concerned with social and economic issues, rather than the Kosovo question and related topics. Today, nationalism is not the basis for Serbian populism, but merely an additive.
The president has also carefully managed the country's response to the war in Ukraine by officially condemning Russia at the United Nations but stopping short of sanctioning Moscow at home, where many Serbs hold a favorable view of the Kremlin. The opposition in turn largely refrained from attacking Vucic's position on the conflict, fearing any call for harsher measures against Russia would backfire at the ballot box.
Vucic's main voters since 2012 have been those who have lost out to the economic crisis: pensioners, housewives and low- to middle-income workers. In the election campaign, the president promises new factories, highways and hospitals. The message is clear: There is hope for Serbia and for everyone.
Vucic claimed a landslide victory in general elections paving the way for another term as president and extending his decade-long rule in the Balkan nation. In the capital Belgrade, the elections were briefly marred by scuffles between parliamentary candidate Pavle Grbovic and supporters of Vucic's SNS, along with scattered reports of small skirmishes and voter intimidation.
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