Su-57E / T-50 / Project 701 / PAK FA - Export Sales

Country	Period *	Sales high *	Sales low #
Partners	2024-2040	139-350	52
Russia	2024-2040	12-150	52
India	2024-2040	127-200	0 !!!
Others	2027-2030	198-530	120
Algeria	2025-2030	24-36	12
Argentina	2035-2040	12-24	0
Brazil	2030-2035	24-36	0
China	2025-2035	up to 100	0 !!
Egypt	2040-2045	12-24	24
Indonesia	2028-2032	6-12	0
Iran	2035-2040	36-48	48
Kazakhstan	2025-2035	12-24	0
Libya	2025-2030	12-24	0
Malaysia	2035-2040	12-24	0
Syria	2025-2030	12-24	12
Turkey	2020-2035	100	0 !!
Venezuela	2027-2032	24-36	0
Vietnam	2030-2035	12-24	24
* Center for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade - 2010 # GlobalSecurity.org - 2021

Sukhoi was confident that the Su-57 aircraft is "doomed to export success", as it is literally packed with various technological innovations. Such an alignment could turn into problems for Russia's key rival in the arms market - the United States. Designers would have export permission three years after the PAK FA goes into service in the Russian military, which is tentatively in 2024. "It will be an aircraft that will outperform our main competitor, the F-22, in maneuverability, weapons and range," said President Vladimir Putin, adding that the PAK FA would be almost three times cheaper. However, the price of the export model is in question because of currency fluctuations.

"India, Algeria and Peru will be the first customers, and they have already expressed their wish to buy the aircraft; only changes in the geopolitical arena can prevent this," said Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of the magazine, Arsenal Otechestva.

As of early 2010 the newest combat aircraft were planned to be mass produced in Komsomolsk-on-Amur from 2015-2017. At that time, a total production run of at least 150-200 aircraft for the Russian Air Force and 200 aircraft for the Indian Air Force was envisioned. The Russian forces have a stated requirement for 420 aircraft to equip 10 regiments, each with 36 combat aircraft and six trainer-combat aircraft. As of 2006 Sukhoi hoped to achieve export sales of 500-650 aircraft. In January 2010, according to Ruslan Pukhov of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the PAK-FA might gain one third of the total market for such aircraft, competing with both the F-22 and the F-35. As of early 2010 total developmental costs were estimated at about $8-10 Billion, at which time the unit cost was estimated at about $100 Million.

Russia is capable of exporting over 600 units of the fifth generation fighter Sukhoi. According to experts of the Center for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade, as of September 2010 it was planned to build at least a thousand of these aircraft. The expected order of the Russian Air Force during the years of 2020-2040 with a favorable economic scenario in the country may reach 400-450 units.

In general, the volume of potential export orders for the PAK FA, considering India, could reach 548-686 fighters. Currently, the only foreign member of the PAK FA program is India, which planned to have no less than 250 units of fifth-generation fighter in service of its air force. They would be built on the basis of the Russian PAK FA, but the level of licensing control of the Russian side for the future model of the fifth generation aircraft is unknown.

The fifth-generation Russian fighter, the Su-57, is planned to be launched to the external market. About this in an interviewInterfax Ilya Tarasenko, vice president of the United Aircraft Corporation for Military-Technical Cooperation, said 15 February 2019. "There are such plans. We are open for cooperation on this project on mutually beneficial terms," he said.

UAC President Yury Slyusar said earlier that the newest fighters showed themselves well during the operation of the Russian HQs in Syria. "Were in Syria, received the so-called baptism of fire, all tasks were accomplished both by aircraft and by armament, which was used. The characteristics were confirmed," Y. Slusar told Interfax in August 2018

The main competition after 2025 would unfold between the Russian PAK FA and the American F-35 Lightning-2. A definite advantage of the F-35 is that it is before the Russian fighter enters the world market. However, this advantage is leveled by the fact that many states that have solid fighter aircraft fleets would continue to actively buy generation 4+ and 4 ++ fighters in the period up to 2025, while F-35 deliveries in the period up to 2025 would be limited to only those countries who are members of this program.

At the same time, it is far from a fact that all of them would acquire the F-35 in the future, or they would purchase them in the volumes that were initially declared. This is due both to the appreciation of this program and its significant lag behind the approved schedule. The obvious weakness of the F-35 program is that all other participants interested in purchasing these aircraft would be able to acquire them only through the sales mechanism of military equipment to foreign countries under the FMS (Foreign Military Sales) program, which does not provide for offset agreements or the attraction of foreign industry, which is extremely unprofitable for those states that focus on the development of the national aviation industry.

With the Su-35 Sukhoi, the company connects its immediate future on the world fighter market. This machine should take place between the multifunctional Su-30MK fighter and the promising 5th generation aviation complex. Su-35 fighters would allow Sukhoi to remain competitive until the PAK FA enters the market. The bulk of exports of the Su-35 would be in the period 2012-2022.

According to forecasts, in the framework of the production program, calculated for the period of the entire production cycle, that is, approximately until 2055, at least 1000 units would be manufactured. PAK FA. The expected order of the Russian Air Force would be from 200 to 250 aircraft. With a favorable economic development scenario of the country, this figure may increase to 400-450 aircraft.

The Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade [TSAMTO] regards a number of countries as potential buyers of the PAK FA: fighters of the fifth generation in the period 2025-2030. The Western press believes that this aircraft has no chance of "commercial exports." India has not yet made a decision whether it should support the program financially, especially among the main complaints that Russia is requesting an inordinate amount for the right to participate in the program.

On the eve of the first large-scale public presentation of the PAK FA, a number of Russian and foreign media reported in August 2011 on an assessment of the global market needs for these fighters. In particular, with reference to the President of the UAC, Mikhail Pogosyan, the media reported that the need for T-50 fighters (PAK FA) is estimated at 600 units, including 200 Russian Air Forces, 200 Indian Air Forces, 200 units. FGFA (created on the basis of the PAK FA), another 200 aircraft would be exported to other countries. According to TSAMTO, this assessment seems to be too “modest” for such a large-scale program. In the TSAMTO forecast of a year earlier, 13 countries were present on the promising deliveries of the PAK FA, including two countries from the North African region - Libya and Egypt.

Based on the 2010 forecast by the Center for Analysis of the Global Arms Trade, the potential buyers of PAK FA are distributed between the following countries: Algeria (can purchase 24-36 fifth-generation fighters in the period of 2025-2030 years), Argentina (12-24 units in the years 2035-2040), Brazil (24 - 36 units in the years 2030-2035), Venezuela (24-36 units in the years 2027-2032), Vietnam (12-24 units in the years 2030-2035), Egypt (12-24 units in the years 2040-2045). Also, Indonesia (6-12 units in the years 2028-2032), Iran (36-48 units in the years 2035-2040), Kazakhstan (12-24 units in the years 2025-2035), China (up to 100 units in the years 2025-2035), Libya (12-24 units in the years 2025-2030), Malaysia (12-24 units in the years 2035-2040), and Syria (12-24 units in the years 2025-2030).

In round numbers, 5th Generation stealth fighters are about three times as expensive as their 4th generation predecessors, and typically achieve at least a 10-to-1 combat exchange ratio. Countries that know exactly why they have fighter aircraft would pay the premium, and countries for which fighter aircraft are rather more ornamental probably would not pony up. With two indigenously developed stealth fighters of its own, there is no prospect that China would import a Russian stealth fighter. Latin America is a low threat environment, so there is little prospect that Argentina, Brazil or Venezuela would pay the stealth premium. Indonesia and Malaysia would probably pass on stealth, but Vietnam probably would pay the premium given neighboring China's programs. Algeria, Egypt and Syria live in a rough neighborhood, and are good sales prospects, though Libya may remain a frail state, and take a pass.

The most interesting question is Iran, which is on good terms with China. After the Syrian intervention, Russia is probably on even better terms with Iran. In short, both Iran and Saudi Arabia would be seeking fifth generation fighters to respond to the Israeli F-35 force. The US is certainly not going to sell the F-35 to Iran. The upstart is a Russian sale of the PAK-FA to Iran, with a Chinese sale of at least the J-31, and possibly even the J-20.

Russia is ready to engage in dialogue with India on deliveries of the fifth-generation fighter Su-57, but the provision of this aircraft to the Russian Air Force remains a priority. This was announced 25 February 2019 by TASS director for international cooperation and regional policy Rostec Victor Kladov. "We, for our part, are ready to continue supplying aircraft of the 4+ and 4+ generation and supplying the fifth generation aircraft. At the same time, for us, of course, the first priority is the Russian Air Force. Aircraft [the newest fifth generation fighter Su-57] Passed a military run-in in Syria and begins to be supplied to the Russian troops, "said Kladov.

According to him, India is showing interest in the Su-57, but the country would have to decide on the future concept of the Air Force. "The Indian Air Force must determine how much such an aircraft fits into their overall concept, what to bet on and spend money on acquiring several new-generation machines or significantly increasing the number of reliable Su-30MKIs well known to Indian pilots," Kladov said.

Despite Beijing having its own fifth-generation fighter, Russia may soon approve sales of the Su-57 to China - and other countries like Turkey, which has shown interest and recently lost access to the US’ F-35 over another Russian weapons deal.

In March 2019 Rostec director of international cooperation and regional policy Viktor Kladov was quoted by Jane's Defense Weekly as saying that in the coming weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin may sign off on sales of the Su-57E, an export variant of Sukhoi's new Su-57 stealth fighter. "China has recently taken delivery of 24 Su-35 aircraft, and in the next two years [China] will make a decision to either procure additional Su-35s, build the Su-35 in China or buy a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, which could be another opportunity for the Su-57E," Kladov said at a press conference at Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition in Malaysia. South Korea, Vietnam, India, Brazil and Turkey have also expressed interest in the plane, Asia Times reported.

"The PAK FA already has an export passport," an anonymous source in the aviation industry told Sputnik 29 March 2019, referring to the plane using its internal testing designation. "The government is currently reviewing documents related to renaming the jet from T-50 to Su-57."

Russian President Vladimir Putin may sign off on sales of the Su-57E, an export variant of Sukhoi's new Su-57 stealth fighter. Russia presented export versions of its newest fifth-generation Su-57E fighter at the MAKS-2019 air show, The 6-day 2019 Moscow International Aerospace Exhibition (referred to as Moscow Air Show) kicked off on 27 August in the city of Zhukovsky on the outskirts of Moscow. The reason why this stealth fighter has received much attention at this year's air show is also closely related to its future exports.

CEO of Russia’s state arms seller Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheyev said in early June 2021 that five Southeast Asian countries were displaying interest in the latest Su-57 fifth-generation fighter.