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Russian Army - Special Military Operation

After the Russian army failed to quickly capture Ukraine, passing through it in a victorious march of supposedly “liberators”, the main motivation for participation in the war for Russians remains coercion. Such an opinion was expressed by Mykola Malomuzh, General of the Army of Ukraine, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (2005-2010), on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel 21 August 2023.

“They were walking with flags, preparing for the parade, meetings and the like. This motivation was swept aside, like a cold shower, by the resistance that Ukraine put up when all the people united. Therefore, this motivation no longer exists. Now it’s different: the Russian leadership is tough, but will definitely send them to war already under certain pressure. This is not only mobilization, it is preparation for aggressive actions on the battlefield, these are detachments directly on the line of war. And nowhere to go. There is no choice in this situation: either our guys will destroy them, or the rear detachments will destroy them. Therefore, motivation is lost, ”comments Malomuzh.

According to him, Russian propaganda is still trying to motivate its military with the theses that they are carrying out some “sacred mission of liberating Ukraine from nationalists and fascists,” but these theses do not work after the Russian military enters Ukraine.

“But there is no choice. They believe that since the state has already given them a clear direction, then they need to fight, even if it is an unjust war. This is now the motivation of the majority: there is no choice, we are mobilized, we were forced, and we will act accordingly. But I’ll tell you straight: when there is a real fight, all these motivations evaporate quickly. They understand that they have come to the territory where they will die, and there is no point in this,” Mykola Malomuzh summed up.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made a conclusion in January 2024 that Russian forces are able to perform planned rotations due to their number throughout Ukraine’s east. “Russian forces maintain the initiative throughout eastern Ukraine, and the absence of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations likely removes pressure on operational deployments that had previously partially restrained the Russians‘ ability to conduct rotations,” add the authors of the report.

According to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, Russian troops in Ukraine total 462,000 and that this is the entire ground component of Russia’s Armed Forces. And most Russian units in Ukraine are staffed at 92-95% of their estimated full strength, with the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allowing Russian troops to rotate throughout the entire war zone.

Russian troops withdraw units with 50% or less of the intended strength to the rear areas and send them back to the battlefield after they have been refreshed and replenished. Russian troops have carried out some regroupings since early October 2023 on the Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Lyman and Kupiansk fronts, which gave Russian forces time to perform the rotations described by Skibitskyi. However, analysts expect the overall combat capability of Russian troops in Ukraine to regress, so the Russian military will not be able to conduct several major offensive operations at the same time despite rotation.