Pakistan - Politics - 2008-2011
On 27 December 2007 Benazir Bhutto was assassinated during a political rally. Yousuf Raza Gilani was appointed Prime Minister on 22 March and sworn in on 25 March 2008. On 29 March 2008 Gillani received a unanimous vote of confidence from the Parliament; this gave the new government six months to move forward and tackle significant economic and terrorism challenges. Gillani then outlined the coalition government's "First 100 Days" plan. After weeks of difficult negotiations, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and its coalition partners came to an agreement on the first tranche of cabinet ministers.
On September 6, 2008, Asif Ali Zardari, widower of assassinated Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto, was elected president and head of state. Domestic politics was initially dominated by uncertainty about the fate of President Zardari. He enjoyed approval ratings in the 20 percent range and repeatedly clashed with key power centers, including the military, politically ambitious Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif.
2008 Elections
After Benazir Bhutto's assassination, the various political parties gamed out the way forward. Before Bhutto's death, it was clear that no one party would win enough votes to form a government, and even a pro-Pakistan People's Party (PPP) surge on election day will not change this. The long-term game continues to be one of alliance building for a post-election coalition. Benazir's widower, Asif Zardari, worked to keep the PPP together despite a leadership struggle and expects to reap a large sympathy vote in the February 18 elections. Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party scrambled to cope with a significant voter backlash from the assassination, the government's clumsy handling of the investigation and public discontent over electrical power and flour shortages. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party seemed incapable of implementing a coherent political strategy. Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) party was also struggling to stem voter discontent with its policies, and the Awami National Party (ANP) hoped to benefit from religious bloc losses. The PPP surge seemed likely will undercut the Muttahida Quami Movement's (MQM) ambitions to broaden its base.
The PPP's candidate for Prime Minister, Amin Faheem, was Zardari's main rival. He was the PPP's in-country leader through eight years of Bhutto's self-imposed exile and has significant rank and file support. As she did with all potential rivals, Bhutto kept Faheem on a short leash that severely limited his independent decision making. He was considered moderate but weak and probably would be subject to Zardari's behind-the-scenes manipulation. , Ahmad Mehmood Qureshi, Aitzaz Ahsan and Yousef Raza Gilani were other party leaders, but they are Punjabis who seemed to have little chance of leading this Sindh-based party.
The elections in February went along as planned and the Pakistani Parliament became filled with members of the opposition parties. Their success was in spite claims by independent observers from the United States and Europe that pro-Musharraf parties likely had serious benefits in terms of media exposure and permission to hold political rallies, suggesting serious dissatisfaction with the government of Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf called upon his opponents to form a coalition with his party, calls which were summarily rejected. The PPP, led by the late Benazir Bhutto's widower Asif Ali Zardari, looked to form a political alliance with Islamic parties who had fared poorly, despite fears that anti-Musharraf sentiment would promote Islamic radicalism in government.
In March 2008, Raza Gilani from the PPP was sworn in as Prime Minister.
Gilani, a respected Bhutto loyalist who spent five years in jail for refusing to join "the King’s Party" in the aftermath of Musharraf’s coup, was hand-picked for the job by Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto’s widower and the PPP's new co-chairman, together with his 19-year-old son, Bilawal Zardari Bhutto. Gilani swiftly announced that Pakistan would cease fighting "America’s war" in the region and called for immediate negotiations.
The Pakistani government at the time, led by a coalition of anti-Musharraf parties, politically moderate by Pakistani standard, was engaged primarily in discussions how to proceed with dealing with concerns in the tribal regions, the Taliban and other militant organizations, the future of US-Pakistani relations, and perhaps most importantly the fate of Musharraf. Reports in May 2008 suggested he was attempting to contact opposition politicians to strike an agreement that would allow him to continue as President but in a diminished capacity. The United States government continually reiterated that it intended to work to continue its regional policy goals with any Pakistani administration following the 2008 elections results, a major shift in rhetoric that had traditionally been strongly in favor of a continuation of the administration of Musharraf.
On 12 May 2008, Nawaz Sharif announced that the PML-N was leaving the government headed by the PPP, because of differences over the handling of supreme court justices sacked by President Musharraf during 2007. Sharif and PML-N advocated for the reinstatement of the justices with their previously held powers, while the PPP had been advocating a compromise between various political groups that would see their return, but with less authority than they had previously.
On 18 August 2008, under domestic political pressure from Pakistan's coalition government, Musharraf resigned from the presidency -- marking the end of an era. Musharraf, who seized control of the nuclear-capable state through a bloodless military coup in 1999, was considered a key ally in the U.S.-led war against terrorism since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. But Musharraf's critics alleged that he was playing a kind of double game with the United States in the war on terrorism -- arresting some Al-Qaeda militants but giving sway to local militants with ties to the ISI intelligence service. Islamabad had consistently denied such allegations.
Several politicians emerged as possible successors to Musharraf, including the leader of the country's largest political party, the Pakistan People's Party, Asif Ali Zardari. Other political factions have named Zardari's sister or the current speaker of the National Assembly, who is also a woman. Minority partners in the coalition government have lobbied for prominent leaders from the volatile provinces of Balochistan or the North West Frontier.
On 25 August 2008 Pakistan's former prime minister Nawaz Sharif announced his Muslim League-N party is quitting the ruling coalition, putting the alliance at risk ahead of elections for the country's Presidency. He accused Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain leader Benazir Bhutto, of not honoring commitments to restore judges, sacked by President Pervez Musharraf when he imposed emergency in November last year.
On 06 September 2008 Asif Ali Zardari won an estimated 482 of the 702 votes from lawmakers to become what some believe will be Pakistan's most powerful civilian leader. Asif Ali Zardari won the majority of votes in three of the country's four provincial assemblies as well as in both houses of parliament. Zardari's win capped a remarkable political revival for a man who spent 11 years in prison on corruption and murder charges - without ever being convicted.
President Asif Ali Zardari
On 09 September 2008 Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of slain former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, was sworn in as Pakistan's new president. After his inauguration Tuesday, President Zardari told reporters he is accepting the position in the name of his late wife and, in his words, "in the name of all martyrs of democracy." President Zardari replaced Pervez Musharraf who stepped down under pressure a month earlier. The 53-year-old Mr. Zardari inherited a list of pressing problems, including a troubled economy and international pressure to crack down on Islamic militants. Zardari's strong political support in the legislatures and Musharraf's expansion of presidential powers could make Zardari the country's most powerful civilian president. He had pledged to reign in the presidency's broad powers, which include the ability to dismiss parliament, but many Pakistanis are skeptical that he will follow through. After Zardari was elected by lawmakers as Pakistan's new president, Islamabad began to make changes to the ISI -- eventually closing the section tasked with domestic spying on Pakistani politicians.
A political crisis was sparked by a 25 February 2009 Supreme Court ruling which stated that Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz were ineligible to contest elections and hold public office. This removed Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister of Punjab and maintained the bar on Nawaz Sharif taking a seat in Parliament. Immediately afterwards, President Zardari imposed Governor's rule in Punjab. The crisis reached its height during the Long March, which began on 12 March 2009. This was a march on Islamabad from across Pakistan organised by the Lawyers Movement, who have been calling for the reinstatement of Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, and removal of the judges appointed by Musharraf under a constitutional order for two years. Nawaz and other opposition parties strongly supported the cause The crisis ended on 16 March when Prime Minister Gilani announced that the Government would restore the former Chief Justiceand file for a review of the Supreme Court decision on the Sharifs. Governor’s Rule was subsequently lifted in Punjab on 30 March.
A judgment the Supreme Court delivered in on 22 December 2009 struck down a controversial amnesty that former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and her family had received in late 2007 and would allow a $60-million Swiss graft case against Bhutto’s widower, President Asif Ali Zardari to be reopened. However, the Pakistan government has refused to ask Switzerland to reopen the case, arguing that the president enjoys immunity from prosecution in and outside Pakistan while in office.
The National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) promulgated in October 2007 by former President Pervez Musharraf, was termed as most notorious act of Constitution, as it had granted amnesty to politicians, political workers and bureaucrats who were accused of corruption, embezzlement, money-laundering, murder and terrorism between 1st January 1986 and October 12th 1999, the time between two Martial Laws.
On April 19, 2010 President Asif Ali Zardari signed into law the 18th Amendment to the Pakistani Constitution. The amendment realigned executive powers by restoring the prime minister as the premier civilian official and returning the presidency to its original, more ceremonial role, largely eliminates the 17th amendment constitutional changes made by former President Musharraf to strengthen the presidency. Zardari thus gave up key presidential powers. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had less interest in trying to force Zardari out once his presidential powers were reduced to that of a figurehead president, while Zardari would in any event remain a powerful political figure by virtue of his role co-chairing the PPP.
The reform package also reorganized center-province relations, empowering provincial assemblies to elect their own chief ministers. The constitutional reform package helped Zardari shrink the moral high ground Nawaz Sharif had gained on the 17th amendment issue, while also keeping the smaller nationalist parties that favor provincial autonomy, including ANP and MQM, on the PPP's side.
Over 2500 civilians and 670 law enforcement personnel died in terrorist-related incidents in 2011, and the presence of al-Qa’ida, Taliban, and indigenous militant sectarian groups continues to pose potential danger to foreigners throughout Pakistan. Terrorists targeted civilians in attacks on markets, clubs and restaurants, places of worship, schools, and outdoor recreation events in Pakistan. In addition, the summer and early fall of 2011 saw outbreaks of serious political violence in Karachi, with estimates of death tolls there in the hundreds. Embassies of most western countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand Embassies issued travel advisories recommending against non-essential travel to Pakistan. Even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence. Rallies, demonstrations, and processions occur regularly throughout Pakistan on very short notice and have often taken on an anti-American or anti-Western character.
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