Myanmar - 2025 Election
As Myanmar's military junta prepared for a 2025 election, attention turned to neighboring China. Critics said China is pressuring Southeast Asian countries to see the vote as a solution to Myanmar's current political crisis.
Myanmar's February 2021 military coup overthrew the elected government and triggered a civil war that has killed thousands and displaced millions. Myanmar's neighbors have been seeking a solution to the crisis, and a meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, was held to discuss the crisis. The meeting was held on December 19 and China was one of the participating countries, along with Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand. All five countries are neighbors of Myanmar.
At the meeting, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong urged representatives of neighboring countries to support Myanmar's "peace and reconciliation," according to a statement released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "All parties should respect Myanmar's national conditions and ... attach importance to Myanmar's people's livelihood," Sun Weidong said.
At the December 19 meeting, Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Than Swe outlined the military junta's roadmap for the 2025 elections. Opposition groups, including ethnic armed forces and the National Unity Government (NUG), a parallel government formed after the 2021 coup, have rejected the plan, questioning its legitimacy and whether the elections will be free and fair.
Representatives from all ASEAN countries except Myanmar meet on December 20. Since the military coup, junta political officials have generally been banned from attending high-level ASEAN meetings. Thai Foreign Ministry officials said ASEAN is still waiting for details of the proposed ballot paper backed by China.
China maintains close ties with Myanmar's military and anti-government armed groups near its border. Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing recently reiterated and reiterated in his Christmas and New Year messages that the government is committed to "strengthening the multi-party democratic system and returning to the correct democratic path." Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a visit to Myanmar's capital city of Naypyidaw in mid-August that Beijing called for "inclusive elections," according to the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
Critics say any elections held by the military would only bring a superficial peace that ignores decades of political and ethnic grievances. Beijing was urging ASEAN members to deepen their engagement with Myanmar's military. Jason Tower of the United States Institute of Peace said China is pressuring its ASEAN neighbors to accept the military's elections as a quick fix. "From China's perspective, if ASEAN allows the military to return and engage in high-level interactions, it legitimizes everything China has done," Tower said.
Htet Min Lwin, a Myanmar expert at York University in Canada, said Beijing prefers to use its influence rather than Western intervention. "If the resolution is passed in ASEAN, where China has considerable influence, Beijing will likely continue to push for an ASEAN-led path," he told VOA.
Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a local political analyst in Myanmar, agreed. "Some ASEAN members will not be able to overcome Chinese influence, either economically or on security grounds," he said. "Chinese influence extends beyond ASEAN; it extends to groups within the country, including Myanmar's ethnic armed groups, which now control nearly all of the border with China and have a long history of close ties with China."
Meanwhile, Toll saw "no viable plan" for a political solution, saying Beijing believes Myanmar's generals are "backed into a corner" and willing to make "significant concessions" that could jeopardize sovereignty, including allowing Chinese troops to protect investments. "China has been forcing two northern ethnic armed groups to negotiate with the government," Toll said. "China's influence is growing, and (Beijing) is exerting influence on other countries in the region to try to get them to follow suit."
He warned that the junta was "bankrupt in its search for a real solution" and instead relied on "air strikes, forced conscription and sham elections to legitimize junta leader Min Aung Hlaing," and Toll expected ASEAN to eventually recognize the army's continued decline.
As the junta pushed for China-backed elections, the government army was suffering a series of defeats. "The army is losing at an alarming rate and is desperate," Toll said. Toll believes the Myanmar military, weakened after the fall of two major regional commands, has no choice but to cede some sovereignty to China. "This is a major concession," he said, referring to Beijing's proposal to form a joint security company. "For China, this turns Myanmar into a testing ground for China's global security initiatives and new ways to secure its interests beyond its borders."
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, also known as the Kokang Army, of the Three Brothers Alliance, along with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army, captured the northern Shan State city of Lashio in October. Lashio is strategically important to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and is the first time in Myanmar's modern history that a regional command has fallen to rebels.
On December 20, the Arakan Army overran the military junta's western regional command in Rakhine State, a region rich in natural gas resources that includes major Chinese projects. Videos on social media showed exhausted junta troops surrendering. Toll said it was "a disgrace to the army." "The bottom line is that it's getting desperate," Jason Toll said. He added that this explains why the Myanmar military is ceding sovereignty to China, including the possible deployment of Chinese private security forces in Rakhine State.
Analysts say elections without real dialogue will only lead to a fragile ceasefire. "All neighbors, including China, cannot understand that every ethnic group in Myanmar has its own right to rule and sovereignty," said Than Min Lwin.
Citing World Bank and United Nations data, Sai Kyi Sin Soe noted that 42 million of Myanmar's 53 million people currently live in poverty. He said the humanitarian crisis may force many armed groups to pause fighting but will not necessarily resolve the conflict. "If the international community puts pressure on them, the war may stop and elections will be held," Sai Kyi Sin Soe said. "However, this is not a solution that will benefit Myanmar in the long run. It needs to be understood that only negative peace will win."
ASEAN may have an opportunity to expand its role next year, but China's involvement, especially in border areas, may overshadow this.
The military-backed election commission in Myanmar on 18 August 2025 set Dec. 28 for the initial phase of long-promised elections, the first since the 2021 coup that overthrew the country’s last elected government and kicked off a still-raging civil war. Junta leadership nominally transferred power to an interim government last month in preparation for the elections. Last week, Min Aung Hlaing, the military chief and acting president, called for increased security to protect politicians and voters, warning of a rise in attacks on civil servants, according to the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
International observers framed the elections as a charade to keep Min Aung Hlaing and his generals in power. Critics point to a lack of free media in Myanmar, and that most officials in the last elected government, including leader Aung San Suu Kyi, have been arrested. U.N. reports detail a regime of torture inflicted on those the military has detained.
It’s also unclear how a truly national election could take place in Myanmar. Control of the country splintered after the coup, with parts of the country held by bands of pro-democracy fighters or ethnic rebel groups, some of whom have pledged to block polls in their areas. “I don’t think the election will hold any significance for the people,” a 63-year-old citizen in the western state of Rakhine told Agence France-Presse. “I think this election is only being held to give power to military dictators until the world ends.”
Meanwhile, clashes continued in Myanmar’s civil war, which had killed thousands, spawned rampant poverty, and left more than 3.5 million people displaced, nearly 40 percent of whom are children.
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