Mexico 2018 Presidential Election

Mexico's socio-political arena may be considered exceptional, especially being “so far from God, so close to the United States," some say. Geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko wrote in The Duran, “Donald Trump is inspiring a new generation of Mexican nationalists."

Mexican leftist leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (nicknamed AMLO) topped a July 2015 poll released by Reforma newspaper Sunday with 42 percent support, leading his nearest rival by 14 points. Lopez Obrador, head of the upstart Morena party, had twice run for president under the banner of the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution, known as the PRD.

In second place in the poll was former First Lady Margarita Zavala, with 28 percent support. Manlio Fabio Beltrones, of the ruling centrist PRI, obtained 22 percent support. Miguel Angel Mancera, the current PRD mayor of Mexico City, considered the second-most important political post in Mexico, obtained 25 percent support. The PRD, along other mainstream Mexican political parties, endured a loss a credibility as a result of scandals linking the Mexican political class to organized crime groups.

By April 2016 the president's approval in the poll for daily newspaper Reforma fell to 30 percent, compared to 39 percent in December 2015, while 66 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Pena Nieto's job performance. Both figures marked a historic low for any Mexican president going back at least two decades in a Reforma poll, the newspaper said. Pena Nieto's support had been mainly driven down by public disapproval over corruption and his handling of efforts to combat poverty and lift the economy, the poll said. The ruling party was tarnished by a a number of conflict-of-interest scandals embroiling Pena Nieto, his wife and finance minister, slower-than-expected economic growth, and grisly drug violence.

A poll published 06 July 2016 by Buendia & Laredo, surveyed voters on how they would vote if the next election, scheduled for 2018, were held now. The survey found 24 percent of respondents would vote for the center-right National Action Party, versus 20 percent who would opt for the PRI, led by President Enrique Pena Nieto, who is constitutionally barred from re-election. Morena, the left-leaning party of two-time presidential runner-up Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, was in third place, with the support of 17 percent of respondents. Lopez Obrador's former party, the Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, traditionally the main leftist force in Mexican politics, had only 6 percent support.

Mexican voters, indeed, Mexicans in general, are fed up by the constant flow of insults, increased deportations and great wall-building head of state to the north. The result, leftist nationalist and former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, simply known as AMLO, tops several 2018 presidential polls. His numbers are steadily rising.

In Mexico, dissatisfaction with the current president, Enrique Pena Nieto, as well as rampant corruption and impunity for countless murders and other capital offences have favored a left-wing populist.

This time, though, AMLO's chances are good. After all, he’s standing against a rather implausible alliance of the Christian and Social Democrats with the grassroots movement on the one hand, and on the other against the former Foreign and Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade, the candidate for the PRI party, which usually holds the presidential office. Many voters will probably hold Meade responsible for the shambles that is all that remains of Pena Nieto’s ambitious 2012 "Pact for Mexico" that was supposed to make the economy and the political system more democratic, as well as expand social rights.

Unlike his failed presidential runs in 2006 and 2012, the 2018 election seem far more promising for AMLO, so much so that some investment banks, according to Foreign Policy, have already started to place their chips against the peso. Just some of the issues to deal with include white-collar corruption, the killing of women, activists, journalists and others and stemming Mexican cartels that are fueled by the U.S. war on drugs. No economic or environmental progress can mask the brutal daily violence that continues to go unpunished in Mexico. However, it is questionable whether distributional policy without economic growth would improve the situation.

The next contender may be rightwing Ricardo Anaya, candidate for the odd coalition of the conservative Partido Accion Nacional (PAN – National Action Party) – that formed government twice with Vicente Fox (2000) and Felipe Calderon (2006) – and the leftist Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD – Party of the Democratic Revolution).

There are no socialist parties candidates because parties like the Communist Party of Mexico or the Workers’ Revolutionary Party are not officially registered and therefore do not take part in the elections.

Mexican Presidential hopeful Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), widened his lead over his rivals in a new poll published by Mitofsky 23 March 2018. Support for AMLO, the former leftist mayor of Mexico City, increased by 2.4 percentage points, going from 27.1 percent in February to 29.5 percent in March. At the same time, his two main rivals, Ricardo Anaya of the National Action Party (PAN) and Jose Antonio Meade of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) saw their favorability rating decrease by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively. AMLO, who was running for Mexico’s presidency for the third time, was regarded as a strong anti-corruption candidate. However, business sectors are wary of his economic policies.

Anaya is second in the polls with 21.2 percent support. His candidacy has been faltering due to corruptions allegations and the fact that he is currently under investigation by Mexico’s Attorney General’s office. The federal investigation is connected to the sale of property by Anaya, which involved a shell company and illicit money. Anaya’s party, the PAN, has denied the claims and accused current president Peña Nieto of using state institutions to hurt Anaya’s campaign. An accusation the Attorney General’s office rejected, arguing the investigation started in October after a complaint was filed. The scandal surrounding Anaya, however, has not boosted the ruling party's candidate, Meade, who is currently ranked third in the polls with 16.4 percent, as his party is involved in corruption and associated with lawlessness.

Margarita Zavala, a former first lady, and a right-wing independent candidate finished in fourth place with 4.8 percent of respondents favoring her. After two other independent candidates, Jaime Rodriguez and Armando Rios Piter, were disqualified over fake signatures supporting their candidacy she is the only independent contesting the July 1 elections.

Independent Mexican presidential candidate Jaime Rodriguez will be on the ballot for July's vote, Mexico's electoral regulator said on 10 April 2018, weeks after he was dramatically excluded for not reaching the required number of signatures. Mexico's election watchdog INE said that its board would follow a court order forcing it to reinstate the on-leave Nuevo Leon governor, making him the second confirmed independent candidate. Armando Rios Piter was left off the ticket for the same reason. More than half the signatures Rodriguez collected were declared invalid, meaning he fell 16,656 signatures short of the required number. Mexico's electoral tribunal ordered INE to put Rodriguez back on the ballot, saying that his due process rights had been violated and that, had all his invalid signatures been double-checked, he might have hit the required total. Fellow independent candidate Margarita Zavala said that she was worried by the decision. "We can't have a system where deception and simulation are more powerful than the force to do good," she said via Twitter. Known in Mexico as 'El Bronco' due to his blunt style, the 60-year-old was the first independent governor in Mexico when he won the industrial state of Nuevo Leon, helped by extensive use of social networks.

Join the mailing list