Himachal Pradesh - Climate
There is great diversification in the climatic conditions of Himachal Pradesh due to variation in elevation. It varies from hot and sub-humid tropical to warm and temperate to cool and temperate to cold alpine and glacial in different parts of the state. The maximum temperature goes upto 22°C in the month of June–July and the minimum temperature around 3°C in the month of January. Average annual rainfall varies largely in the state with 454 mm in Lahul & Spiti and 1565mm in Kangra.
Considering the sensitivity of the state towards the vagaries of nature and changing climate, a State Centre has been set up to understand the dynamics of climate change and to evolve management measures with the active involvement of experts such as glaciologist, climatologist, agriculturist, horticulturist, foresters, social scientist etc. This centre shall also take up community based management of micro ecosystem for ensuring the stability of the fragile watersheds of the state of Himachal Pradesh.
The state of Himachal Pradesh, which forms a part of the Northwestern Himalaya, is environmentally fragile and ecologically vulnerable. occurence of natural hazards emanating from the effects of climatological variations are a matter of immediate concern to the state of Himachal Pradesh, as every year the state experiences the fury of nature in various forms-like cloudburst, flash floods, landslides, snow avalanches droughts etc. The fragile ecology of the mountain state coupled with large variations in physio-climatic conditions has rendered it vulnerable to vagaries of climate.
The incidence of cloudbursts in the last few years has baffled both the meteorologist and the common man equally. Notwithstanding, continuous efforts made by the Government to cope with such hazards through relief and rehabilitation measures, the recurrence of uncertainties continue to inflict widespread harm and damage to human life as well as property. The roads that are the state’s lifeline are repeatedly damaged, blocked or washed away by one or the other acts of nature. The Snow and glaciers which are considered to be best indicators of changing climate have been affected by the rising temperature through out the Himalayan belt.
It has been observed that the estimates on the magnitude of glacial retreat and their impact on natural resources have been varying considerably. However the impact of climate change and rising temperature has been noticed even by a common man in far flung parts of the Himalayan eco system. Depletion of small glacierets in the Himachal Himalaya which were providing the sustained discharge to many rivulets for irrigation to agriculture fields and sustaining the water resources in downstream areas has been reported by the villagers.
The probable causes for the negative growth rate in per capita income in Kinnaur can be i) a lower production of horticultural and agricultural crops because of the failure of timely rains, and ii) difficulties in transporting the exportable surplus because of frequent natural disasters which occurred during the second half of the 1990s.
Coupled model simulations from IPCC AR4 show large uncertainty in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall, however a MME of 10 selected models give reasonably good representation of monsoon though with a dry bias. MME projects around 10% increase in the Indian monsoon rainfall over central and peninsular India in 2030's. The expected change in the rainfall is within the current monsoon variability and there are large model to model differences making these projected changes to be lesser confident.
MME projects 1.5-2°C warming in the annual mean temperature over the Indian landmass while winter (Jan-Feb) and spring (Mar-Apr-May) seasons show higher warming. High resolution regional climate model ‘PRECIS’ shows good skill in representing smaller scale features of monsoon. The projections of PRECIS in 2030's indicate 3-7% increase in all-India summer monsoon rainfall.
The annual mean surface air temperature may rise from 1.7°C to 2°C by 2030's as indicated by simulations. The regional climate model simulations indicate that the cyclonic disturbances over Indian oceans during summer monsoon are likely to be more intense and the systems may form slightly to the south of normal locations. The ensemble mean changes in the monsoon rainfall are in the range of 2 to 12% while the annual temperature changes are of the order of 1.4 to 1.9°C, however the individual simulations show large differences.
Vulnerability to climate change will mainly depend on economic position and infrastructure capacity of nations. Climate change effects will impose significant additional stress on ecological and socio-economic systems, but currently these systems are burdened by pollution, natural resource scarcities and other unsustainable practices. Technologically advanced countries are prepared well for responding to climate change, particularly by developing and establishing suitable policy, institutional and social capability for dealing with the consequences. But the poor and developing countries are mostly affected by climate change, because they are not having enough and sound technologies or scientific development to deal with this impact. In developing countries like India, climate change is an additional burden because ecological and soioeconomic systems are already facing pressures from rapid population, industrialization and economic development. The mountain ecosystem are the most vulnerable to the economic impacts of climate change.
The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events can have serious economic consequences. The impact of climate change on agriculture and the fragile ecosystems in the mountains will have a direct impact on agricultural productivity and tourism, and consequently on the state’s economy.
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