Hungary - Election 2022
On Sunday, April 3, Hungarian voters had the opportunity to vote for representatives in the National Assembly. This year, voters will choose from 43 parties and 664 candidates. The parliamentary elections pose the greatest challenge to the dominance of the ruling party, Fidesz, since Prime Minister Viktor Orban took power in 2010. Six opposition parties representing different elements of the political spectrum created the United for Hungary alliance in an effort to oust Orban from power. Prime Minister Orban’s party has enjoyed a supermajority in the National Assembly since 2018, and between 2010 and 2015. Hungary also held a referendum alongside the parliamentary elections on new laws regarding targeting LGBTQ topics in educational programing. If adopted, the government would have license to impose further restrictions on the ability of the LGBTQ community to exercise their equal rights.
Hungarian civil society groups called for international election observers to monitor the country's vote on 03 April 2022. In an open letter published by the Helsinki Committee in Budapest on Thursday, some 20 civil society organizations wrote, "The Hungarian elections in 2022 will be one of the most important stress tests for democracy in Europe and in the EU."
In 2022, the Hungarian elections were among the most important stress tests for democracy in Europe and the EU. To date, OSCE ODIHR had not deployed such a full-fledged electoral observation mission to any EU member state. However, voters, political candidates as well as Hungarian authorities across all administrative levels would all stand to benefit from the deployment of a full EOM which would provide a fuller assessment of proceedings before, during and after election day.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a darling of the international far right, challenged the legitimacy and fairness of elections in the country he rules. Orban has misused state funds, made use of aggressive anti-immigrant messages, and worked to transform the media landscape into one that favored him and his party.
The last elections in Hungary took place in 2018 and Orban significantly tightened his grip on power since. Civil society groups were concerned about the fairness of the country's elections after several procedural alterations since the last elections, including redistricting, the dominance of the ruling party Fidesz, notably on media and advertising, as well as recent laws that support vote-rigging and residence registration. Hungarian civil society activists called for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to send an election observer mission.
A mission representing the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) observed the 2018 national elections. In its final report on the elections, the mission characterized the election as “at odds with OSCE commitments” and concluded that a “pervasive overlap between state and ruling-party resources” undermined contestants’ ability “to compete on an equal basis.”
The ODIHR election observation mission report highlighted that despite the “large number of contestants, most did not actively campaign, ostensibly registering to benefit from public campaign-finance entitlements or to dilute the vote in tightly contested races.” The report called attention to the lack of a “periodic review of constituency boundaries in a transparent, impartial, and inclusive manner by an independent body.”
Compared to 2018, the situation had significantly deteriorated with further backsliding on democratic standards. Changes to electoral and other laws since 2018, by then already gerrymandered voting districts, discrimination in how Hungarian citizens living abroad can vote, voter-tourism as well as vastly disparate campaign resources benefit the ruling party; increased intimidating, xenophobic and anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, ruling party dominance in the media market, the occupied electoral bodies and political influence over courts, further autocratisation under the guise of the pandemic, and arbitrary restrictions on the freedom of peaceful assembly and free expression all point to a serious and direct threat to the integrity of the parliamentary elections.
Hungary is a multiparty parliamentary democracy. The unicameral National Assembly (parliament) exercises legislative authority. It elects the president (the head of state) every five years. The president appoints a prime minister from the majority party or coalition in parliament following national elections every four years. In parliamentary elections in 2018, the Fidesz-Christian Democratic People’s Party alliance led by Fidesz party leader Viktor Orban won a two-thirds majority in parliament. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe election observation mission found that “fundamental rights and freedoms were respected overall, but exercised in an adverse climate.” Specifically, it characterized certain elements of the election as “at odds with the organization’s commitments” and noted, “The widespread government information campaign was largely indistinguishable from Fidesz campaigning, giving it a clear advantage.” Orban has been prime minister since 2010.
On 30 March 2020, as part of the government’s legislative package declaring a state of emergency due to COVID-19, parliament permanently amended the criminal code to increase the penalty for spreading a “falsehood” or “distorted truth” (“scaremongering”) that could obstruct or prevent successful protection under a special legal order to imprisonment of up to five years (see section 3 for more on the state of emergency). Government officials asserted that the legislation sought to discourage the spread of harmful “fake news” that could hinder attempts to keep the pandemic under control. Domestic and international observers spoke out against the legislation and raised concerns about its potential effects on media freedom. On March 27, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed concerns that the amendments could negatively affect the work of journalists and have a potentially chilling effect on freedom of expression. On March 26, Reporters without Borders (RSF) stated that the law granted the government a tool to threaten journalists and intimidate them into self-censorship. On April 21, RSF also noted that before the legislation was submitted, “progovernment media organizations” had called for the arrest of journalists critical of the government.
Some pro-government outlets relied almost completely on government advertising for their revenues. According to Freedom House, “while private, opposition-aligned media outlets exist, national, regional, and local media are increasingly dominated by progovernment outlets, which are frequently used to smear political opponents and highlight false accusations. Government advertising and sponsorships favored progovernment outlets, leaving independent and critical outlets in a financially precarious position.”
Nationwide municipal elections were held in October 2019 under a single-round national system to elect local council representatives, mayors, and ethnic minority self-government members. With 48.6 percent turnout, the elections resulted in governing Fidesz-Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) candidates retaining the majority of mayoral positions in smaller towns and villages, and the opposition capturing the mayoral seats of Budapest, 14 of the capital’s 23 districts, and 11 of the country’s 23 county seats. Observers suggested the relative success of the opposition resulted from the nomination of a single opposition candidate running against Fidesz-KDNP in most key races.
Russia’s February 2022 assault on Ukraine forced Orbán, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term in office next month, to adjust his campaign strategy from highlighting alliances with Moscow and Beijing to promoting security as the war continues to threaten Hungary’s eastern frontier. “It’s in our interest not to be pawns in someone else’s war. In this war we have nothing to gain and everything to lose,” the prime minister said before reiterating his position that Hungary will not send any military assistance to Ukraine.
Orbán received his second endorsement from former US President Donald Trump 15 March 2022. “Now with what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine… the great and wonderful people of Hungary need the continued strong leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán more than ever. He is TOUGH, SMART, AND LOVES HIS COUNTRY,” Trump said in a statement.
Viktor Orban was reelected as Prime Minister of Hungary in elections that were dubiously free and barely fair. Fidesz is aided by gerrymandered districts, drawn after it won an election in 2010, which should secure its majority today even if its opponents get more votes. Orban's conservative Fidesz-KDNP party holds on to a comfortable lead amid the vote-counting. As of 9pm local time, the party is ahead with 59.99% of the votes, with 23.03% of party-list ballots counted. Despite the six leading opposition parties uniting to try to knock out Orban’s government under its banner, United for Hungary has only 28.89% of the vote thus far, with right-wing nationalist party Our Home (Mi Hazánk) trailing in third at 6.58%. Pollsters Medián had forecast a 49% win for Fidesz to 41% for United for Hungary, with Our Home expected to tie with joke party Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) for third place, with 4.5% of the vote. Budapest Business Journal has explained Fidesz’s lead may shrink as many urban districts around the capital have not yet reported their results, while all votes from the rural areas, home to Orban’s most enthusiastic supporters, are more likely to have been counted. While United for Hungary attempted to smear Orban as a ‘Russian puppet' in the days leading up to the vote, the Hungarian leader’s refusal to completely cut off relations with Moscow had been seen by supporters as pragmatic, given the European nation gets most of its energy from Russia and has no alternative sources available to meet all its fuel needs in the event of an embargo.
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