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Greece - Elections 2019

A Eurasia Group note released on 14 January 2019 said that late May 2019 is the earliest plausible date for parliamentary elections, adding that the main conservative opposition New Democracy party is expected to win an absolute majority. Eurasia Group described Kammenos’s departure from the SYRIZA-led coalition as “an opportunity for Tsipras to rid his government of ANEL’s nationalist flair and to appeal to moderate and centrist voters” ahead of national elections which were formally scheduled to take place no later than October.

However, Eurasia Group said the leftist premier was likely to bring parliamentary elections forward to late May. “Doing so could help SYRIZA cut its losses in light of its declining support. The government also calculates that holding parliamentary elections in conjunction with local and European elections will give voters other avenues to air their discontent with the government,” it said.

Eurasia Group added that Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s New Democracy party is likely to win an absolute majority. “Irrespective of timing, we think main opposition New Democracy led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis will win the next election with an absolute majority,” it said.

Tsipras won a confidence vote in parliament on 16 January 2019, clearing a major hurdle for Greece's approval of an accord to end a dispute over Macedonia's name and averting the prospect of a snap election. "Today the Greek parliament gave a vote of confidence in stability. We received a vote of confidence with our only concern to continue to address the needs and interests of the Greek people," Tsipras told journalists after the vote. Tsipras called the confidence motion after his right-wing coalition partner Panos Kammenos quit the government on January 13 in protest over the name deal signed between Athens and Skopje last year. Parliament gave Tsipras 151 votes, meeting the threshold required in the 300-member assembly. His leftist Syriza party had 145 seats in parliament while additional support was gleaned by defectors of Kammenos's ANEL party and independents gave him six more votes.

The parliamentary election in Greece was to be held in fall 2019, when the government's four-year-long term of office expires, not in May 2019, along with the election of the Greek representatives to the European Parliament, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras confirmed. In spite of media reports that the Greek government could hold both the European Parliament and the Hellenic Parliament elections in May 2019, Tsipras said on 28 August 2018 that the elections to the country's legislative body would be held after the European Parliament election, not along with it. According to these scenarios, polls will be held for parliamentary elections on 13 October 2019 , along with municipal elections.

For a long time, the Interior Minister had expressed the view that the next municipal elections, to be held in a simple proportional system, should be determined in October 2019. Mr. Skourtetis, speaking at the joint KEDE-ENPE conference, said: "The self-governing elections will be disconnected from the European elections, which will take place on the second Sunday of October 2019".

Regarding tactics, one perception "saw" in triple elections the possibility of disrupting the electoral mechanism of New Democracy, since much of it will devote itself to the personal campaign of the cross. The other approach, which wanted the elections in October, was to argue that the number of citizens involved in municipal lists is so large that it makes impossible any rational prediction of the effect of the municipal elections on the parliamentary elections.

Apart from the tactics, divergences also emerged in the strategy. Mr Scourletis is reportedly taking the view that SYRIZA must move "to the left" in order to "repatriate" the voters of 2015 who have distanced themselves. In order to achieve this "repatriation," moves expressing the "left-handed soul", ie institutionalization of elements of the traditional left-wing program, are preferred in such a way that they do not signal that they are not related to electoral tactics.

There we will go with the system of simple proportional and - according to the project's initiators - there is a serious possibility of a coalition of Alexis Tsipras with Phofi Gennimatas and possibly a third party in order to form a strong government majority. Here, of course, it should be noted that the parliamentary majority of any government must provide the 180 required to ensure the election of the President of the Republic in 2020 and to avoid a tedious third course towards the polls.

The key actions that will shape the winning show is: Safe output to markets, regulation of debt , repair injustices against vulnerable groups whose income shrank by understandings, and return to the normality of labor rights. In all these, government officials add the certainty that the Greek government has the confidence of creditors and institutions, while they hope that with his attitude to national issues and to Middle East geostrategies , Alexis Tsipras strengthens his leadership profile in Old Epirus.

Tsipras will attempt the narrative of the conclusion of a new social contract with the people. A social contract for issues of democratization of society and the functioning of institutions and democracy. It will spread the "fanfare" to all the issues that the previous governments feared: Members 'privileges, parliamentary immunity, the functioning of Justice, the electoral system, citizens' involvement in the legislative process, state-church relations, and a number of other issues taboo for decades.

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