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France's Political Crisis: Worse Than Cohabitation

In France's three previous cohabitations (1986-88, 1993-95, 1997-2002), the system remained functional despite the awkwardness. The opposition had a clear majority in parliament and could form a stable government that passed legislation. Roles were clearly defined: the Prime Minister controlled domestic policy while the President handled foreign affairs and defense. Most importantly, accountability was clear - voters knew who was responsible for what. The government functioned, even if the arrangement was uncomfortable for both sides.

The Nature of the Current Crisis

What France faces now is fundamentally different and more debilitating. No bloc has anywhere near the 289 seats needed for a majority. The National Assembly is split three ways: the left-wing New Popular Front with around 180 seats, Macron's centrist Ensemble with about 159, and the far-right National Rally with approximately 142. This creates a triple deadlock where no combination can easily govern together, and French political culture has no tradition of the kind of coalition-building that might resolve this.

The refusal of blocs to work together compounds the problem. Macron's centrists won't cooperate with Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed, viewing them as too radical. Meanwhile, most parties remain reluctant to legitimize the far-right National Rally by working with them. The Socialist Party finds itself caught in the middle, part of the left-wing alliance but more moderate than France Unbowed. This creates a situation where any potential Prime Minister faces immediate threats of no-confidence votes from multiple directions.

Governmental Collapse and Paralysis

The result has been unprecedented governmental instability. Three governments have collapsed in a matter of months - Michel Barnier's, François Bayrou's, and most dramatically, Sébastien Lecornu's, which lasted literally one day after announcing his cabinet in October 2025. This makes Lecornu the shortest-serving Prime Minister in Fifth Republic history. Each collapse has been triggered by budget disputes, as the fragmented parliament cannot agree on how to address France's serious fiscal problems.

The government exists in a state of permanent crisis, unable to pass even basic legislation. Even measures that might normally be considered non-controversial become impossible in this environment of total distrust and fragmentation.

Economic and Institutional Consequences

The economic impact has been severe. France's budget deficit stands at 6.1% of GDP, and its debt has reached 112% of GDP. Credit rating agencies have begun downgrading France, and the uncertainty is costing billions. One estimate suggests Macron's June 2024 snap election alone cost €4 billion based on the resulting drop in tax revenue and increase in French interest rates. The inability to pass a proper budget for 2025 or 2026 threatens France's commitments to the European Union and undermines economic confidence.

The constitutional system offers no clear way out. Article 12 of the constitution prevents the President from dissolving parliament again until at least July 2025, one year after the last dissolution. Macron has repeatedly refused calls to resign despite pressure from the far-left and far-right. Impeachment would require support from two-thirds of MPs, which is mathematically impossible with the current fragmentation. France is essentially stuck in limbo, operating under caretaker governments that lack the authority or legitimacy to make major decisions.

A Crisis of the Fifth Republic Itself

Perhaps most troubling is the legitimacy crisis this has created. In traditional cohabitation, both the President and Prime Minister had clear democratic mandates, and the system, while strained, retained its legitimacy. Now, the public witnesses unprecedented dysfunction and government instability. Macron's decision to call snap elections in June 2024 is widely viewed as having made everything worse rather than providing the "clarity" he claimed to seek. His own popularity has plummeted to historic lows.

The policy vacuum this creates is dangerous for a major European power. Even routine governance becomes impossible. France is drifting without clear direction on major economic and social issues at a time when decisive action is needed. International partners and EU institutions are increasingly concerned about France's ability to meet its commitments and play its traditional leadership role in Europe.

At its core, the problem is that the Fifth Republic's constitution was designed to prevent exactly this situation. De Gaulle's system assumed either a presidential majority or a clear opposition majority that could cohabit. It has no real mechanism for sustained three-way gridlock where no coalition is possible. In traditional cohabitation, France had divided government. Now it has no effective government at all - a situation unprecedented in modern French history and one that threatens the functioning of its democratic institutions.