Cyprus - Climate
Cyprus can experience violent storms and high winds in coastal regions. Winter snowstorms occur in the Troodos Mountains. These storms can block roads or create poor driving conditions. Cyprus has forest and grass fires during the long dry season from May until October. Fires are most common in the heavily forested and mountainous regions.
The Mediterranean climate, warm and rather dry, with rainfall mainly between November and March, favors agriculture. In general, the island experiences mild wet winters and dry hot summers. Variations in temperature and rainfall are governed by altitude and, to a lesser extent, distance from the coast.
The higher mountain areas are cooler and moister than the rest of the island. They receive the heaviest annual rainfall, which may be as much as 1,000 millimeters. Sharp frost also occurs in the higher districts, which are usually blanketed with snow during the first months of the year. Plains along the northern coast and in the Karpas Peninsula area average 400 to 450 millimeters of annual rainfall. The least rainfall occurs in the Mesaoria, with 300 to 400 millimeters a year. Variability in annual rainfall is characteristic for the island, however, and droughts are frequent and sometimes severe.
Summer temperatures are high in the lowlands, even near the sea, and reach particularly uncomfortable readings in the Mesaoria. Because of the scorching heat of the lowlands, some of the villages in the Troodos have developed as resort areas, with summer as well as winter seasons. The mean annual temperature for the island as a whole is about 20°C. The amount of sunshine the island enjoys enhances the tourist industry. On the Mesaoria in the eastern lowlands, for example, there is bright sunshine 75 percent of the time. During the four summer months, there is an average of eleven and one-half hours of sunshine each day, and in the cloudiest winter months there is an average of five and one-half hours per day.
The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region is a climate change 'hot spot'. Model outputs indicates mean temperature rises of about 1 to 3°C in the next three decades, of 3 to 5°C by mid-century and 3.5 to 7°C by the end of the century placing Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East ahead of most other places on the globe in terms of projected temperature changes. To make matters worse, precipitation is expected to decline with reductions in mean annual rainfall of 10-50% in northern parts of the Middle East, Turkey, Greece and southern Italy. Most of the decrease in rainfall will be seen in the spring and summer seasons.
Looking in more detail at model results for Cyprus and the period from 2020 to 2050 one of the most striking results is an increase in extremely hot summer days with maximum temperatures exceeding 38°C for an additional two weeks per year compared to the already quite warm summers we are used to. In addition, we will experience warm 'tropical' nights with minimum temperatures above 25°C for an additional one month compared to current conditions. By the end of the century the number of hot days per year in Nicosia will increase by two months, resembling conditions currently experienced in cities like Cairo or Bahrain.
Consequently, the need for air-conditioning and space cooling not only during the days, but also at night is likely to increase, causing higher consumption of electricity on the island. Given the ongoing decrease in rainfall observed for the last three decades, climate change in Cyprus will result in additional reductions of rainfall of 10-15% over the 2020 to 2050 period. Thus the need for both increasing drinking water and more abundant water for irrigation will result in a growing demand for additional seawater desalination plants and an emphasis on enhancing water-use efficiencies.
Prevailing stretches of hot summer days will give rise to extended heat waves, which will have particularly grave consequences for the majority of the populations that live in ever larger cities. This will cause severe risks of heat strokes and other heat-related illnesses posing a major threat to public health in the countries of the region. Changes in climate and weather patterns are likely to cause increases in vectorborne parasitic and viral diseases adding additional stress to local and regional public health authorities. Other public-health concerns linked to the anticipated changes in climate in the region are related to a reduction in air quality. As is already evident today, hot summer months are prone to cause further deteriorations of air quality and high ozone levels that regularly exceed EU health protection limits, particularly in urban settings.
Milder winters in the north may lead to the lengthening of the growing season. The associated positive consequences for agricultural production of this trend is likely to be overshadowed by the increasing number of hot days and decreasing soil moisture, leading to reduced agricultural yields. Marine ecosystems and commercially viable fish stocks will be affected by decreasing nutrient availability and an overall deterioration of marine food webs. With the Mediterranean attaining conditions more similar to tropical or subtropical oceans, Cyprus will see an enhanced influx of tropical marine species with as yet poorly known effects on existing marine ecosystems.
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