As recentlly as 2020 a plausible set of assumptions ranged from a program that started soon and moved fast, with the first ship already building and entering service in 2020, with subsequent units following at two year intervals, versus a slower program that sees subsequent units joining at three year intervals. The relatively sudden appearance of the [admittedly small displacement] Jingdao Type 056 light frigates, and blazing construction pace of this class rendered the "soon and fast" scenario as plausible as the "late and slow" program. By one account, China plans to have by 2049 - the Centenary of the founding of the PRC - completed construction of 10 aircraft carriers.

The leisurely cadence of the third unit suggests the possbility of a rather more sedate program. At the time of launching CV18 Fujian there were no signs of a fourth unit. But it should be noted that the last two years of the ten year construction program were during the COVID pandemic, during which time Shanghai was subjected to lockdowns and other labor force restrictions.

The following table brackets a plausible range of assumptions, ranging from a program that starts soon and moves fast, with the first ship already building and entering service in 2020, with subsequent units following at two year intervals, versus a slower program that sees subsequent units joining at three year intervals. The relatively sudden appearance of the [admittedly small displacement] Jingdao Type 056 light frigates, and blazing construction pace of this class renders the "soon and fast" scenario as plausible as the "late and slow" program. By one account, China plans to have by 2049 - the Centenary of the founding of the PRC - completed construction of 10 aircraft carriers.