Kazakhstan - Russia Relations
Russia is traditionally the biggest trade partner of Kazakhstan. Russia has traditionally considered Central Asia to be within its phere of influence. With three Russian strategic "buffers" of Ukraine/Belarus, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, as a result of moves by Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO, Russia placed the highest priority on ensuring that the countries of Central Asia remain close to Russia.
The importance of Kazakhstan for Russia can hardly be overstated. It's the largest and richest former Soviet republic in Central Asia, which also has the closest ties with Moscow. Kazakhstan, along with Russia and Belarus, pushed for the creation of the EU-style Eurasian Economic Union in 2015, a prestige project for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kazakhs made up the largest group among foreign students at Russian universities in 2020, numbering more than 60,000. In surveys conducted by the renowned Moscow polling institute Levada Center, about a third of Russians repeatedly rated Kazakhstan as the second most friendly country after Belarus. In 2014, it was overtaken by China and has since ranked third.
From Moscow's point of view, the most strategically important cooperation with Almaty concerns outer space. Kazakhstan inherited the Baikonur spaceport from the Soviet Union, which Russia leases for $115 million (about €101 million) a year. Moscow has since commissioned its own spaceport in the far east, but intends to continue using Baikonur.
Unlike Belarus, Kazakhstan is not dependent on Russian loans and, despite its close relationship, the political leadership has tried to keep a certain distance from Moscow. It's no surprise that a few years ago Kazakhstan's then-President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, decided to change the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic, a legacy of Soviet rule, to Latin letters.
The ties between the two countries, however, are tense, something that became clear at the end of 2020. Russian Duma deputy Vyacheslav Nikonov called Kazakhstan's territory "a great gift from Russia." The Kazakh Foreign Ministry protested, and Nikonov backpedaled over the issue. President Tokayev followed up by writing an article defending Kazakhstan's independence.
Around 3.5 million ethnic Russians live in the northern provinces of Kazakhstan, out of a total population of around 19 million. There has been speculation in both countries for years about whether Russia might annex these territories in a manner similar to Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dismissed such fears in a DW interview in 2019. His country's relationship with Russia, he said, is "completely marked by trust and neighborly goodwill."
Diplomatic relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russian Federation were established on October 21, 1992. The Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the Russian Federation and the Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Kazakhstan were opened in 1992.
Nazarbayev stated clearly that Russia was Kazakhstan's number-one strategic partner for any number of reasons -- geography, history, economics, infrastructure, language, and culture. But he makes likewise clear, usually in private, that Kazakhstan greatly values its independence and has no intention of being anyone's "privileged sphere of influence." Despite the close relations between Moscow and Astana, Russia's post-colonial psychology often causes it to over-play its hand dealing with Kazakhstan. The brief Russia-Georgia war in 2008 seems to have been, to a degree, a wake-up call for Nazarbayev, and he recalibrated his foreign policy somewhat to the advantage of the United States. But it's fine-turning; he didn't make wild swings like Uzbekistan's Karimov between Moscow and Washington.
Russia would prefer crude to travel through Russian territory, which would naturally give Russia greater leverage over Kazakhstan. At the turn of the century, Russia used to turn off the Atyrau-Samara oil pipeline, citing 'technical reasons,' whenever President Nazarbayev said something they didn't like. But they don't do that anymore. Their methods are more sophisticated and more subtle. Russia could introduce a pipeline tariff tax and simply raise the rate to increase the pressure on Kazakhstan. This would be particularly effective if Kazakhstan were limited to exporting all of its crude via Russia.
The 2014-2015 events in Ukraine presented a specific twist to the larger issue facing Central Asian states, namely how to "get along" surrounded by large powers who may not have their best interests at heart. Of particular note were comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said in August 2014 that "the Kazakhs never had any statehood" and that it would be beneficial for the Kazakh people to "remain in the greater Russian world." Putin basically threw down a marker when he called Kazakhstan an artificial country.
Senior Kazakh lawmaker Maulen Ashimbaev said Putin's remarks about Kazakhstan's statehood was "wrong." Ashimbaev said Kazakhstan's statehood dates back to the Golden Horde in the 13th century. The lawmaker, however, cautioned that Putin's comments should not be taken out of context.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, Duma deputy and head of its Education and Science Committee, appeared on The Great Game program on Russia’s First Channel on 10 December 2020 for a show dedicated to the anniversary of the signing of the Belovezha Accords on December 8, 1991, that dissolved the Soviet Union. Nikonov said that when the Soviet Union was created in 1917, “Kazakhstan simply did not exist as a country, its northern territories were basically uninhabited,” and that areas “further down south [in present-day Kazakhstan], most of the territories were basically given as a gift to [the Kazakhs] by the Soviet Union, by Russia." The next day, an activist from Russia’s Patriot movement hung a banner on the gate of the Kazakh Embassy in Moscow that read “Northern Kazakhstan is Russian land.”
“The more frequent provocative attacks of some Russian politicians against Kazakhstan cause serious damage to allied relations between our states. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan expects an adequate assessment by the Russian side of such statements and calls for measures to be taken to prevent further statements of this kind from statesmen of the Russian Federation,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Kazakh-Russian relations dynamically develop in different spheres. At the present stage Kazakhstan-Russia strategic partnership is based on the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Alliance in the 21st century (2013). Regular meetings and negotiations between the Heads of the States play a crucial role in the strengthening of the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and Russia.
There is Intergovernmental Commission on cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russian Federation that consists of 7 subcommissions in the spheres of: interbank and investment collaboration; transport; interregional and border; military and technical; fuel and energy sector; science and new technologies; industry. Moreover, the Intergovernmental Commission on Baikonur complex has been working since 2013 to regulate relations in the area of space activities.
Interparliamentary relations are gradually developing. The system character of interparliamentary partnership is based on the work of relevant parliamentary commissions and committees. Interregional and cross-border collaboration promotes the successful development of bilateral relations. Forums of interregional cooperation with the participation of the Heads of the States are held annually.
The Program on Long-term Economic Cooperation between the Governments of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russian Federation till 2020, the 2012-2017 Program on interregional and border cooperation between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russian Federation, the 2016-2018 Kazakhstan-Russia joint action plan are being realized.
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