Zambia - 2008 Election
Zambia is a republic of 11.9 million citizens governed by a president and a unicameral national assembly. The ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) exerts considerable influence through its patronage and allotment of government resources. Civilian authorities generally maintained effective control of the security forces. The government's human rights record remained poor, although there were improvements in a few areas. Human rights problems included unlawful killings; torture, beatings, and abuse of suspects and detainees by security forces; official impunity; poor and life threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrests and prolonged detention; long trial delays; arbitrary interference with privacy; restrictions on freedom of speech, press, assembly, and association; government corruption; violence and discrimination against women; child abuse; trafficking in persons; discrimination against persons with disabilities; restrictions on labor rights; forced labor and child labor.
President Mwanawasa died August 19, 2008 in a Paris hospital from complications of a stroke suffered June 29. Largely credited with Zambia’s economic recovery, including growth of more than five percent per year since 2002, Mwanawasa had also undertaken several positive steps to address the AIDS crisis in the country.
Cabinet's insistence during Mwanawasa's hospitalization that the President was showing improvement--and its insinuation that he would resume his duties before long--may prove damaging to MMD's credibility in the short-term. Perhaps even more harmful, however, is that Cabinet's state of denial made it difficult for MMD members to hold open discussions about party succession. Health Minister Brian Chituwo's August 8 remarks that Mwanawasa's recovery might be protracted unleashed a flood of criticism from other parliamentarians and MMD officials that revealed chords of genuine disunity within the party. MMD Spokesperson Ben Tetamashimba, seeking to quell the row, reminded party members that "no MMD members, irrespective of position, should discuss the President's illness unless quoting the State House website."
As a result of its virtual gag order, MMD's succession dialogue moved underground. On August 17, Northern Province Minister Lameck Chibombamilimo told reporters that "government leaders are holding 'dark corner' meetings" to discuss the President's ailing health and vie for party leadership.
In accordance with the constitution, Vice President Rupiah Banda assumed presidential powers but was required to hold elections within 90 days of Mwanawasa's death. In the absence of a party Vice-President to succeed Mwanawasa, the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) is divided into three camps, consisting of veteran MMD politicians ("true blues"), members of the Mwanawasa family, and moderates who might support a bid from Vice President Banda.
The "true blues," as the activists who democratically ousted President Kenneth Kaunda from office in 1991, view themselves as the rightful heirs to the MMD presidency. Although MMD National Secretary Katele Kalumba enjoys strong popular support within the party, particularly at grassroots level, his indictment for acts of corruption may prevent him from entering the presidential race and may resign him to the role of MMD "king maker."
Perhaps out of personal ambition--as well as a fear of political retribution from former President Frederick Chiluba, Kalumba, and others who were the subject of Mwanawasa's campaign against corruption--an element of the MMD would like to see the party leadership stay within the Mwanawasa "family tree." This circle allegedly includes Home Affairs Minister Ronnie Shikapwasha, Justice Minister George Kunda, and Defense Minister George Mpombo. Shikapwasha, a one-time Foreign Minister and religious pastor with considerable public appeal, may have all the credentials to take the reins. In the past, First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa also has shown some interest in the presidency, although her efforts to test the waters revealed modest levels of public support.
A "moderate" faction within MMD reportedly viewed Vice President (and Acting President) Rupiah Banda as a practical compromise between the party's other two competing elements. An long-time statesman with an accomplished career and close ties to Zambia's revered first President Kenneth Kaunda, Banda potentially could draw in a wider net of voters. Banda, however, still belongs to the United National Independence Party (UNIP) and has signaled little interest in changing parties. MMD stalwarts are likely to strongly contest any efforts to relegate MMD leadership to an outsider.
Meanwhile, opposition parties are using the GRZ's new wage bill as a pretext to campaign jointly against the MMD. Opposition party leaders believe that an early election will be to their distinct advantage, given the confusion within the MMD. Opposition leaders had been campaigning restrainedly until now, but had been acting as if presidential elections were an inexorable certainty.
Elections were held on October 30, 2008. Banda was declared the winner after narrowly defeating Michael Sata of the opposition Patriotic Front party by only 30,000 votes. International observers were satisfied overall with the conduct of the election and the management of the Electoral Commission of Zambia, although no voters had been registered since late 2005.
Voter turnout was markedly low, with only 45 percent of registered voters going to the polls. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) announced that Banda won 40 percent of the contested vote against 38 percent for his closest rival, opposition Patriotic Front (PF) leader Michael Sata. The bulk of support for Banda and the MMD came from rural areas, where the MMD subsidized fertilizer supplies to enhance food security prior to the elections. Support for Sata, who ran on an anti-poverty ticket and led the polls during the first two days of counting, came from urban voters, particularly in the capital Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) electoral observer mission declared the elections free and fair, and the Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP), a local electoral watchdog—described the results as consistent with the findings of their observers at polling stations. However, Sata accused the MMD of rigging the vote, citing irregularities such as late voting in two constituencies in Western Province.
Banda was sworn in on November 2, 2008 and announced new cabinet members on November 14. Banda vowed to continue the business-friendly and corruption-fighting policies of his predecessor, but emerging corruption scandals in the Zambian Government and the acquittal of former President Chiluba have raised speculation about President Banda’s initial commitments to promote fiscal transparency and accountability and about his overall commitment to fighting corruption.
Despite the lack of updated voter rolls and other problems, international observers characterized the by-election as transparent, orderly, and well run; however, opposition Patriotic Front candidate Michael Sata filed a petition with the Supreme Court to request a recount. The court had not ruled on the petition by year's end.
During the year 2008several by-elections were held after incumbent deaths or court nullification of election results. Reports of vote-buying and misappropriation of government resources for unfair political advantage continued, and some cases were challenged in court. On February 21, Patriotic Front candidate Gerry Chanda was elected Kanyama member of parliament (MP), and on June 26, MMD candidate Reuben Chisanga Banda was elected as Milanzi constituency MP. Although both by-elections were generally free, they were marred by allegations of vote buying, promises of massive development, and distribution of clothing and food relief.
On 12 August 2008, the Supreme Court nullified the election of Mwansabombwe MP Samuel Chitonge after Chitonge's opponent, Maybin Mubanga, alleged the physical abuse of MMD members campaigning in the area. Mubanga maintained that such abuse intimidated the local population and prevented them from choosing the candidate of their choice. On October 30, Chitonge won the by-election. There were 23 women in parliament, three serving in the cabinet, and three serving in the Supreme Court. The country's ethnic communities were well represented in political institutions.
The National Constitutional Conference (NCC) continued to meet throughout the year to consider the draft constitution proposed by the 2005 Mung'omba Constitutional Review Commission. Some civil society groups, including large umbrella organizations representing women's groups and church groups, maintained their boycott of the NCC in protest of what they perceived as heavy government and ruling party representation.
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