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Niger - Instability

Niger was ranked 189 out of 189 in the 2021 UN Human Development Index and has the fastest population growth rate in the world at 3.9 % per year. More than half the population of 24 million is under the age of 15. The literacy rate is below 30% among adults and even lower among women. A landlocked country about twice the size of Texas, Niger is the largest country in West Africa and is strategically important as a linchpin for stability in the Sahel as well as a reliable counterterrorism partner against ISIS-Greater Sahel, ISIS-West Africa, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), Boko Haram, and other regional violent extremist organizations. Studies show that by 2050, Niger’s population will balloon to approximately 55 million if no concrete measures are taken to slow population growth.

There has been an erosion of human and civil rights, as evidenced by the GoN breaking up demonstrations, restricting freedom of assembly, threatening and jailing journalists, attacking political opposition, and arresting civil society activists. Non state actors engaged in violent extremism capitalize on local conflicts and core grievances, using long-held feelings of injustice and marginalization among some members of the communities to spur divisions. Government response has resulted in alleged human rights abuses that are not comprehensively documented, with little to no accountability or redress for victims. The public’s awareness of formal justice mechanisms, their legal rights, and court procedures for resolving disputes is poor and citizens often turn to traditional dispute resolution.

Niger has experienced several military coups since it gained independence in 1960. The coups have led to frequent changes in leadership, resulting in political instability.

• 1974 coup d'etat: The first coup in Niger occurred on 15 April 1974, when Lieutenant Colonel Seyni Kountché led a military coup that overthrew the government of the country's first president, Hamani Diori.
• 1996 coup d'etat: On 27 January 1996, Colonel Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara led a military coup that ousted the first democratically elected President, Mahamane Ousmane.
• 1999 coup d'etat: On 9 April 1999, President Maïnassara was assassinated in another military coup led by Major Daouda Malam Wanké, who established a transitional government.
• 2010 coup d'etat: On 18 February 2010, a coup led by Major Salou Djibo ousted President Mamadou Tandja, who had been trying to extend his term limit.
• 31 March 2021: Failed attempt by Captain Sani Saley Gourouza to overthrow Mahamadou Issoufou. Since the restoration of democracy in 2011 after a 2010 coup, Niger made noteworthy strides in democracy and institution building. The 2020 local, legislative, and presidential elections represented a continuation of democratic consolidation,

Niger has faced significant political instability throughout its history, with various causes contributing to this.

• Ethnic Conflicts: Niger has a diverse population with multiple ethnic groups. This diversity has sometimes led to tensions and conflicts, contributing to instability.
• Poverty and Economic Inequality: Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. High levels of poverty, coupled with economic inequality, can contribute to political instability as they fuel discontent and social unrest.
• Terrorism and Insurgent Activities: The Sahel region, including Niger, is known for activities of various extremist and insurgent groups, including Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and affiliates of the Islamic State. These groups often launch attacks and incursions into Niger, contributing to instability.
• Border Disputes: Niger has experienced border disputes with its neighbors, particularly Libya and Chad. These conflicts have often turned violent, destabilizing the region.
• Climate Change and Environmental Issues: The effects of climate change, particularly desertification and drought, have led to resource scarcity. This scarcity can lead to conflict and contribute to political instability.
• Governance Issues and Corruption: Weak institutions, governance issues, and high levels of corruption have also undermined political stability in the country.

The government risks losing the confidence of the Nigerien population if it cannot find a way to respond to the most urgent needs of its people and ensure relative stability within its own borders; moreover, the government must continue to ensure that allegations of abuses by security forces are investigated and properly adjudicated. Other factors include a desire for protection, poverty, unemployment, marginalization, and a sense of rejection and contestation of the state and its representatives.