Guinea - Politics - 22 March 2020 Election
Parliamentary elections were held in the West African nation of Guinea on 22 March 2020. A referendum on certain crucial amendments to the constitution, including extending the president’s term, also took place simultaneously. More than 43 parties are contesting the elections to the 114-seat National Assembly of Guinea. President Alpha Conde’s Rally of the Guinean People had won the last elections in 2013 with 53 seats. Voters also cast their vote in a referendum on constitutional amendments, including to increase the term of the president from the present five to seven years. If the amendments are approved, while the two-term presidential limit will remain, Conde (82 years old) may be able to contest again for two terms.
Guinea is one of the world's poorest countries, despite owning huge mineral resources. Guinea has a unicameral National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale) with 114 seats. The President is elected by absolute majority vote through a two-round system to serve a 5-year term. The country is due to hold a presidential election in 2020, although a date for the vote has not been scheduled. A constitutional referendum will be held on March 1st, 2020, alongside Parliamentary elections. The new constitution will reset presidential term limits.
On 01 March, voters will elect their new parliamentary representatives and, more importantly, decide whether or not to adopt Alpha Condé’s proposed changes to the constitution. In the National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale), 38 members are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies to serve 5-year terms and 76 members are elected through a closed-list proportional representation system to serve 5-year terms. In the proportional tier, there is one nationwide district. The National Assembly (Assemblée Nationale) was dissolved in December 2008 following a military coup. Since February 2010, the role of the legislature was filled by the appointed 155-member National Transition Council.
Elections had been scheduled to take place in 2007, but the term of the National Assembly was increased due to delays caused by a general strike and with issues in setting up the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). The election has subsequently been repeatedly delayed due to various problems, including funding, issues over voter registration, and a military coup d'etat. In July 2013, the UN brokered a compromise between the government and the opposition, paving the way for the election to occur.
Guinea has four geographical regions, each of which identifies with specific ethnic and cultural affinities. There are currently more than 150 registered parties in the country, 15 of which are represented in the National Assembly. Parties have organized themselves by affiliation in seven blocs, three of which belong to the ruling majority and four to the opposition. Interlocutors with whom the delegation met, expressed concern that major parties have resorted to ethnic or regional appeals to garner electoral support. Under such circumstances, political polarization tends to fuel ethnic tensions around the country. These overlapping cleavages are a matter of serious concern, and if left unchecked would exacerbate tension and risk stirring violence and conflict during highly competitive elections.
As part of the preparations for the 2019 legislative elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) began a series of meetings with all the actors of the electoral process. On 21 March 2019, in a Conakry receptive, CENI President Amadou Salif Kebe and his fellow commissioners exchanged with the Republican Opposition led by the party of opposition leader UFDG - Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea. Aliou Condé, secretary general of the Ufdg, demanded the audit of this electoral file "since there had been enrollment of minors at the time. So we have an extrovert file. We have a file that has more than 50% of the Guinean population as voters, while it is known that the population of 0 to 18 years constitutes more than 60% of the Guinean population. It is therefore incongruous to say that the population aged 18 and over 18 is greater than the population aged 0 to 18".
Some sources reported tha the 2019 National Assembly elections might take place as early as 03 February 2019, but there is no evident reporting of a decision to delay from this date, nor [as of mid-April 2019] when or whether the elections might be expected.
Since the 2010 transition to democracy, elections have not been held on time as stipulated in the country’s constitution. Recurring political crises and disagreements over the voter registry have delayed the legislative polls, which means that current members of the National Assembly elected in 2013 would have served for nearly seven years instead of five as stipulated by the constitution. Their mandate was extended indefinitely by presidential decree in January 2019. In consultations with the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF), the CENI announced in November 2019 that legislative elections will be held on February 16, 2020. Ruling and opposition parties have encouraged their supporters to register to vote. The revision of the voter roll began in November for a period of 25 days and is scheduled to end on December 16, 2019.
From December 9-13, the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the Kofi Annan Foundation (KAF) conducted a pre-election assessment mission ahead of legislative elections scheduled for February 16, 2020. The delegation noted that all Guineans with whom it met expressed a strong desire for peaceful, inclusive and credible legislative elections in 2020. They underscored the significance of those elections in deepening the country’s democracy and ending the extension of the current legislature whose term expired in January 2019. Many Guineans expressed concerns over speculations about changes to the country’s constitutional framework and electoral timeline undermine preparations for the February 2020 polls. They decried the violence that has marred political demonstrations since October and that resulted in the loss of lives. Most of the victims of the violence have been youth aged 20 or younger.
The delegation also noted a level of polarization and mistrust amongst Guinean political actors and civil society organizations. The team observed that while the election commission (CENI) is confident about its preparedness to conduct the polls, political leaders from the majority and opposition parties expressed concerns about the ongoing voter registration process. The CENI must make extraordinary efforts to share information about its work and timeline. Guinean leaders must enhance dialogue among political parties and foster more regular communications and interactions between parties and the election management body.
Guinea has been polarized by a heated debate over whether the country needs a new constitution, and if a referendum to adopt such a new constitution should be held prior to the October 2020 presidential election. Under the current constitution adopted in 2010, President Alpha Condé is currently serving his last mandate that is due to end in December 2020. However, should a new constitution be adopted, some Guineans argue that would reset the term anew, in which case the incumbent president could seek another term of office. Proponents of a new constitution and those opposed to the idea have staged massive demonstrations in Conakry and other parts of the country. A coalition of opposition parties and some civil society organizations formed a National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (Front National pour la Défense de la Constitution - FNDC), and have staged weekly protests since October. In response, promoters of a constitutional change created the Democratic Coalition for the New Constitution (Coalition démocratique pour la nouvelle Constitution - CODENOC).
Guinean society is still grappling with a lingering sense of justice denied and resentment over past violence, notably the September 2009 massacre of more than 150 unarmed demonstrators by security forces during a political rally in Conakry. Families of the dead and other victims still await justice 10 years later. Since Guinea’s transition elections in 2010, each electoral contest has experienced election-related violence. For instance, following the February 2018 local elections, supporters of various political parties disputed the declaration of results in 12 of the country’s 342 electoral districts because of concerns that the vote tabulation process was manipulated. Those demonstrations degenerated into substantial post-election violence, and the Guinean government imposing a ban on public protests. Recently enacted legislation in June 2019 strengthened the power of the police and gendarmerie in maintaining public order.
Mistrust runs deep among Guinea’s political leaders, fueled in large part by the absence of sustained dialogue and unmet commitments, which is detrimental to national unity. Opposition parties accuse the government and the ruling party, the Rally of the Guinean People (Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée - RPG), of manipulating elections, violating human rights, and restricting civil liberties, whereas the government and majority party accuse the opposition of obstructing progress and sponsoring violent demonstrations that result in loss of life and the destruction of public and private property. Since 2010, the opposition has at various times boycotted the National Assembly and other institutions such as the CENI. Although the RPG and major opposition parties have had to resort to several negotiated agreements to resolve contentious issues related to the electoral cycle, following the disputed outcome of the February 2018 local elections, opposition parties suspended their participation in the dialogue framework created to oversee the implementation of the October 12, 2016 political agreement (the 2016 Guinean Political Accord).
Opposition parties in Guinea pledged in December 2019 to boycott legislative elections set for 16 February 2020 and "prevent" them from taking place, in a dispute focussed on the country's electoral roll. "We have decided we cannot take part," opposition chief Cellou Dalein Diallo said after meeting with the heads of around 20 opposition groups. "It's not just a question of boycotting the elections and standing idly by. We will prevent these elections from taking place," he said. Diallo charged that there had been "massive inclusion of minors" on the electoral lists, while people who had the right to vote had been blocked. "We cannot accept having an election based on this electoral roll," Diallo said.
Fellow opposition leader Etienne Soropogui, said: "We took an important decision today, which consists of no longer [running against President] Alpha Conde so long as we do not have the conditions for free and transparent elections."
Guinea had been racked by rolling demonstrations sparked by concerns that Conde, 81, planned to stay in office beyond the legally mandated two terms. Conde has not yet confirmed whether he planned to run again. But his announcement last week of a new draft constitution sparked a fresh wave of accusations that he was planning to extend his rule. About 20 people had died since the protests began in mid-October, according to a tally by the AFP news agency, and one gendarme has also been killed. Hundreds of people had been arrested. Civil rights campaigners say the police have used excessive force and carried out arbitrary arrests. Conde, who was jailed and spent time in exile under Guinea's previous governments, became the country's first democratically elected president in 2010. He was re-elected in 2015. Despite initial hopes of a new political dawn in the country, critics say his rule has become increasingly authoritarian.
The radical opposition refused to participate in the election because of the botched and biased manner in which they claimed it had been organised. Involved in a power struggle with President Condé, radical opposition leaders can’t call on their partisans to vote in the parliamentary elections while also urging them to boycott the referendum on the new constitution, with both votes taking place the same day.
The three former prime ministers of the military regime, i.e., Cellou Dalein Diallo, Sidya Touré and Lansana Kouyaté, could end up paying a steep price. Diallo, whose party has won every election in the past ten years in Middle Guinea and Ratoma (a sub-prefecture of Conakry) and was gaining traction in Lower Guinea, could lose at least 37 seats and his status as a salaried leader of the opposition. Touré could end up losing his ten parliamentary members. Kouyaté’s party, whose representation was reduced to its most basic form (himself) when his protégé defected to RPG-Arc-en-ciel, risked disappearing from the political scene altogether.
Constitutioal Referendum
A new constitution means a new republic, effectively hitting the reset button on the presidential term limit and thereby making it possible for the president currently in office to run for the top post in the October 2020 election. The proposed constitution would make school compulsory until the age of 16, raise the required legal age for marriage to 18, prohibit genital mutilation along with slavery and child labour, grant spouses equal rights in divorce, decrease the age of candidacy from 25 to 18, make it mandatory for at least one-third of members of government and parliament to be women, abolish the death penalty, etc.
Guinea's President Alpha Conde announced 28 February 2020 a "slight postponement" of the 01 March 2020 referendum on whether to adopt a new constitution, following mounting international criticism over the poll's fairness. The government argued that the draft constitution would, among other things, codify gender equality and ban female circumcision and underage marriage in the West African state. But the proposal sparked huge protests since October over fears that the real motive is to reset presidential term limits -- allowing Conde, 81, to run for a third spell in office later this year.
Speaking on national television, the president said it was "due to our national and regional responsibilities that we have accepted a slight postponement of the date of the elections". "This is not a capitulation or a step backwards," he said, adding that "the people of Guinea will express their choice freely at the referendum".
While Conde did not publicly announce a date for the new vote, a letter from the leader to the West African bloc ECOWAS said the new poll should take place within two weeks. The poll had been scheduled alongside parliamentary elections -- also delayed in the poor but mineral-rich country of some 13 million people, which has a legacy of autocratic rule.
The long-running demonstrations over the constitution issue have sometimes turned violent, with at least 30 protesters and one gendarme killed to date. Conde's announcement followed criticism of the electoral process from the African Union, European Union and The International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF), which gathers French-speaking states. The OIF said this week it had problems with around 2.5 million of the 7.7 million names on the electoral roll, pointing to duplicate registrations and people who had died.
The African Union also cancelled an electoral observation mission to Guinea, citing a "major controversy" with the roll. Meanwhile the EU said in a statement that a "lack of inclusiveness and transparency casts doubt on the credibility of the upcoming elections".
Originally scheduled for March 1, Condé postponed the referendum after international criticism of some 2.5 million dubious names on the country's electoral roll. Some 7.7 million people were on the register, out of a total population about 13 million people. The government said it had now scrubbed the problematic names, after an expert team from the West Africa bloc ECOWAS urged doing so. Cellou Diallo, a former premier and the head of the leading opposition party the UFDG, said the process of cleaning up the electoral roll had been opaque. "It is an electoral masquerade," he said, adding that the roll did not reflect the electorate.
At least 10 people were killed in clashes Sunday 22 March 2020 between police and protesters. At least 31 people and one gendarme had been killed prior to Sunday's violence. Anti-government forces came under fire by security forces who "carried out massive arrests, fired blindly, cruelly molested (and) killed at least 10 people", the FNDC, an umbrella opposition group, said in a statement. Shortly after voting began at 0800 GMT, young people attacked police deployed outside a polling station in a school in Ratoma, a suburb of Conakry. In another school nearby, voting equipment was vandalised.
The proposal to change the constitution was hugely controversial in the West African state, spurring mass demonstrations in which at last 32 people had been killed. Independent National Electoral Commission president, Amadou Salifou Kebe, told reporters that 91.59 percent of ballots were in favor of adopting the new constitution, while 8.41 percent were against. Turnout was 61 percent, he added, saying that these were provisional figures.
Presidentisal Election - 18 October 2020
Guinea's ruling party on 01 September 2020 confirmed months of speculation that 82-year-old President Alpha Conde will seek a third term in office, a possibility that had already sparked deadly mass protests. The news came after Conde pushed through a constitutional reform in March that critics had argued was designed to allow him to run for office again in the October 18 election. "President Alpha Conde will indeed be our candidate in the presidential election," said the statement from the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), read out on television. The party had formally nominated him to run again back in August, but Conde had made no formal response.
More than 90 people had been killed in a crackdown on protests against Guinea President Alpha Conde’s bid to seek a controversial third term in elections at the weekend, a leading opposition group said. The 82-year-old was vying for re-election on October 18, after pushing through a new constitution in March that critics said was designed to sidestep a two-term limit in the West African country. On 12 October 2020, the anti-Conde coalition FNDC published a tally of 92 protesters killed since mid-October 2019. Some 45 of those protesters were shot dead, the National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) said, and eight remain unidentified.
Guineans cast ballots for a president on 18 October 2020, with the 82-year-old incumbent Alpha Condé facing his longtime rival Cellou Dalein Diallo for a third time. Canvassing in the West African state ended a tense political campaign marked by insults traded between President Alpha Condé and his leading rival. After decades as an opposition activist, Condé became Guinea's first democratically-elected president in 2010 and won re-election in 2015.
Alpha Conde won Guinea's disputed presidential poll, the national electoral authority said 24 October 2020, setting the stage for a controversial third term. Announcing provisional results, electoral authority president Kabinet Cisse said that Conde, 82, had won 59.49 percent of the votes in the October 18 election. His main opponent Cellou Dalein Diallo, -- at the forefront of protests against a third term for Conde -- was credited with 33.5 percent of the vote.
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