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NGAD [Next Generation Air Dominance]

There is no evidence that the Air Force is developing a new fighter plane that sits one person and engages in dogfights kinetically. While the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program is aimed at replacing the F-22 fighter jets, the Air Force is also looking at technologies developed within the NGAD program that would establish continued air dominance. The Department of Defense (DoD) defines air superiority as “That degree of dominance in the air battle by one force that permits the conduct of its operations at a given time and place without prohibitive interference from air and missile threats.”

The U.S. Air Force announced on 05 December 2024 that the incoming Trump administration would officially decide the fate of the planned sixth-generation stealth fighter. The NGAD program had been suspended as the U.S. Air Force top brass re-evaluated the design and requirements of the platform. “The Secretary of the Air Force will defer a decision on Next Generation Air Dominance to the next administration while the Department of the Air Force continues to analyze and take necessary actions to ensure the decision space for the NGAD program remains intact,” Air Force spokeswoman Ann Stefanek said in a statement on the 5th.

In recent years, the U.S. Air Force has been committed to promoting the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which aims to ensure air superiority in future conflicts by developing sixth-generation fighter jets and supporting combat systems.

The Air Force's highly confidential NGAD program was originally planned to replace the fifth-generation F-22 "Raptor" fleet sometime in the 2030s. The service sees the manned NGAD fighter as the core of a "system cluster," which also includes autonomous unmanned wingmen known as collaborative fighters. It will also have a cutting-edge variable cycle engine that can switch to the most efficient configuration, as well as advanced sensors, weapons, and data connectivity technology. However, the program has recently encountered a series of challenges, which has led to the suspension of the project. The US Air Force's original plan to award the NGAD contract in 2024 has also been shelved.

From the perspective of the process of promoting and implementing the plan, the main reasons for the suspension are:

First, the high cost. The NGAD fighter jet is known as the "next generation of air dominance" and is planned to use a large number of advanced technologies. The cost of a single aircraft is close to 300 million US dollars, which is almost three times that of the F-35 fighter jet. The cost is far over budget, making it the most expensive fighter jet in history. Faced with cost overruns on multiple important projects, the U.S. Air Force can hardly afford such high expenses, so it has to cut the cost of the NGAD project. In order to maintain the balance of the overall military budget, the U.S. Air Force has to consider cutting or postponing spending on certain projects, and NGAD has become a possible victim.

Second, there is insufficient technological innovation and unclear goals. Although the NGAD fighter jet plans to adopt a large number of advanced technologies, such as variable cycle engines, manned-unmanned interactive systems, and artificial intelligence, the implementation and integration of these technologies is not easy. In addition, the US Air Force's definition, tactical concepts, and performance indicators for the sixth-generation fighter jet have not yet been finalized, and technological innovation has not yet achieved a breakthrough, resulting in the project's vacillation in the direction of research and development. With the rapid development of unmanned combat technology, the US Air Force's positioning and requirements for the NGAD fighter jet have also changed, which further increases the difficulty and uncertainty of technological innovation.

The third is strategic adjustment and demand changes. With the advent of the era of information and intelligent warfare, battlefield control has gradually shifted from focusing on the performance of a single weapon platform to focusing on the effectiveness of the entire combat system. The US Air Force's positioning and requirements for NGAD fighters have also changed. It has begun to consider unmanning NGAD fighters and conducting manned/unmanned collaborative operations with other manned fighters. This combat method will give full play to the advantages of unmanned combat forces and improve the effectiveness of the entire combat system. However, this strategic adjustment also means that the US Air Force needs to re-examine the research and development direction and combat concepts of the NGAD plan, which may lead to delays or adjustments to the plan.

The Air Force deferring its NGAD decision to the next administration is a move by the Biden administration. NGAD is the core of the U.S. Air Force's future plan to achieve air superiority, an important initiative of the Biden administration, and one of Kendall's seven "warfighting priorities." Capability development work is considered to be the most critical to the Air Force's ability to reliably deter or defeat peer opponents. The plan led to the birth of a flight demonstrator that will evolve into a NGAD fighter.

“We are moving forward with a sense of urgency to ensure we are ready to deter and, if necessary, win,” Kendall said in a February speech announcing his 24 initiatives, which he called “Re-Optimizing Great Power Competition.” “We are running out of time.”

As the Biden administration is coming to an end, the fate of the U.S. Air Force's NGAD program has attracted much attention. Although Air Force Secretary Kendall has proposed a series of ambitious reform measures, including the NGAD program, aimed at coping with great power competition and improving the combat effectiveness of the U.S. military, he also admitted that some political and administrative challenges will inevitably be encountered during implementation. The important thing is that the Biden administration has no time to complete these plans, so pushing the NGAD program to the next administration is a last resort.

Second, avoid making mistakes. U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall once said that the selection of the sixth-generation fighter in the NGAD project needs to be suspended before confirming whether the technical route and design plan are correct. This move is aimed at avoiding making decisions when the technical route and design plan are not yet clear, which may lead to project failure or further cost overruns.

Third, it will leave options for the next government. The U.S. Air Force announced that Frank Kendall, who is about to leave office, will not make a decision on the future of NGAD, but will continue to analyze and leave options for the next government. This will help the next government to conduct a more comprehensive and in-depth assessment of the NGAD program based on its own strategic needs and financial situation, and thus make a more informed decision.

It remains to be seen what the new Trump administration thinks of NGAD. The defense chapter of the 2025 plan, written by former Trump acting defense secretary Christopher Miller, supports a "next-generation air superiority system" but does not explicitly mention manned aircraft in its call for new weapons, drones and sensors.

The Air Force had been scheduled to pick a fighter manufacturer by the end of the year, with Lockheed Martin Corp and Boeing Co in the running. Northrop Grumman withdrew from the competition last year but has expressed interest in rejoining, depending on how requirements for the sixth-generation jet evolve.

But uncertainty remains about what President-elect Donald Trump means for the military to achieve air superiority. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, whom Trump appointed to head an advisory panel to the Department of Government Efficiency, have both expressed skepticism about the value of manned fighter jets in future wars.

Musk said in a series of tweets in November that "manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones" and called those who make manned fighter jets such as the F-35 "idiots." On December 4, Ramaswamy also told the Aspen Security Forum in Washington that the United States should invest more in drones and hypersonic missiles rather than "new fighter jets or whatever."

Since cost was the primary consideration behind the current NGAD review, it is likely to become a primary issue again when the new Trump administration determines the future of the program.

Although the fate of NGAD remains unknown, the Air Force said it has enough money to continue to fund technology maturation and risk reduction for NGAD, and that efforts to build the CCA will continue uninterrupted. Air Force spokesman Stefanek still said that the Air Force is "extending the current technology maturation and risk reduction contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance Program to further mature the design/system while ensuring that the industry team remains intact," and its industry will "update their proposals to address delays caused by the current suspension (limited to timeline/milestone updates)".

Analysts believe that the future of major defense programs such as NGAD will be pushed from the outgoing administration to the incoming administration, reflecting the inherent contradictions in the U.S. equipment development strategy. Although the ambitious NGAD program is crucial for the United States to maintain its global hegemony, it is running out of time for the Biden administration to complete it. At the same time, the U.S. Air Force will have to make some very difficult decisions about its priority projects as it continues to struggle with fiscal realities.

However, for the new Trump administration, facing the dilemma of the NGAD plan, Trump may take a series of measures to adjust it during his new term. Although the US Air Force insists that the decision-making space of the NGAD plan remains unchanged, with the adjustment of the Pentagon's top leaders and US Air Force generals, the prospects of the NGAD plan are not optimistic. Even if the plan can still be continued, which is determined by the US global strategy to maintain the US Air Force's air superiority, the NGAD of the new Trump administration is likely to be different from the original NGAD.

USAF Secretary Kendall expanded his statements about the Next Generation Air Dominance program 01 July 2024. The manned fighter portion of the program is being bid on (presumably) by Lockheed Martin and Boeing. The advanced engine (Next Generation Advanced Propulsion) is being bid on by General Electric and RTX. Service officials caused a stir recently when they implied that NGAD could be delayed or restructured due to competing budget priorities, etc. USAF Secretary said the next-gen fighter needs to cost less, a change in message from weeks ago. USAF Secretary said the next-gen fighter needs to cost less, a change in message from weeks ago. NGAD competition is still on, despite public messaging. USAF may have "sticker shock" and bidders are not eager to accept risky, money-losing fixed-price contracts. Some have expected an award decision this summer, but other observers continue to think an award occurs after November elections (if it happens).

SECAF Kendall said “The family of systems concept of Next Generation Air Dominance is alive and well.... I can tell you that we are looking at the NGAD platform design concept to see if it’s the right concept or not. … We’re looking at whether we can do something that’s less expensive and do some trade-offs there.... The design concept that came out of that [initiative] is a very expensive concept. Scale matters, numbers matter, and so does time. We want to get something there quickly.”

The Air Force is considering a less complex, smaller adaptive engine for the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter to reduce costs, as Secretary Frank Kendall confirms that the program is "alive and well." Both General Electric Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney have developed adaptive engines, which can adjust their configuration for optimal performance, marking a significant advancement in propulsion technology.

By June 2024 it seemed that the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program - the next (sixth) generation air superiority aviation system - may be revised. The US Air Force planned to select the concept and developer of this aircraft by the end of this year. Now the command does not confirm that this choice will take place. The Chief of Staff of the US Air Force General David Alvin answered a journalist's question on 13 June 2024 at the Association of Aerospace Forces conference. The question was, in general, simple, although with a twist: “Do you think you will be able to use the air superiority fighter that is being developed - or will you have to change it, and then change it every couple of years?” In response, Alwyn said, "We're going to have to make that choice... It's probably going to happen in the next two years."

The general's words suggest the Air Force is rethinking its plan to create a very expensive (both in purchase price and in operation) and technically complex aircraft. They are being pushed to this by the changing nature of the war, in which drones have unexpectedly (at least for the military) come to the fore. The Air Force command intends to develop CCA (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) - unmanned aircraft operating in conjunction with fighters, including those already in service.

The service life of the CCA will be short - about ten years. This - combined with a modular design - will allow the UAV to be quickly adapted in accordance with the changing nature of combat operations. Funding for the NGAD program, of which CCA is an integral part, is not going very intensively. However, the Air Force intends to raise it, and “sharply” - immediately to $28.5 billion over the next five years. Of this, $19.6 billion should have gone to the development of the fighter itself, the remaining $8.9 billion to the CCA subprogram. According to the command, this should have made it possible to have flying samples of the CCA as early as 2028. Around the same time, the NGAD fighter was supposed to take off. However, there are now serious doubts that this will happen.

The military estimates the cost of the CCA at ~$30 million. Compared to modern “full-size” fighters, which cost “per hundred,” this, of course, is not much. However, this is not to say that it is not enough, taking into account the fact that these UAVs will, in fact, be “consumables.” The price is explained by the fact that the management of the SSA will be largely provided by artificial intelligence. According to the idea (or rather, the “wants”) of the Air Force, this will allow the F-35 pilot to control not only his car, but also the actions of six drones at once. It seems, however, that this is too much - especially if the SSA will operate in air-to-air mode. It won't be long here to chop up your own people. Therefore, most likely, the first carriers of “auxiliary” UAVs will be the double F-15E, and possibly the twin F-15D.

Refusal to implement the NGAD program - more precisely, its “fighter” part - will curb the financial appetites of the competitors - Boeing and Lockheed Martin. But Northrop Grumman, which refused to participate in the competition, either “intuited” or knew something.

USAF Secretary Kendall told lawmakers in April 2022 the USAF's 6th-gen fighter would cost hundreds of millions of dollars per copy. And he clearly said the manned version of the aircraft, so there could be even more costs for the "system." That's a stunning price that many had a hard timing seeing as feasible (particularly when the USAF wanted to retire F-22s rather than spending $50M to upgrade them). Written testimony supports the suspicion that NGAD hasn't been awarded to one prime yet. It said the servicewas using "sustained competition" for the vehicle and mission systems and would have a "government-owned" open architecture. The USAFwas using a "competitive industry consortium approach."

The Department of the Air Force released a classified solicitation to industry 18 May 2023 for an engineering and manufacturing development contract for the Next Generation Air Dominance Platform with the intent to award a contract in 2024. "The NGAD Platform is a vital element of the Air Dominance family of systems which represents a generational leap in technology over the F-22, which it will replace," said Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall. "NGAD will include attributes such as enhanced lethality and the ability to survive, persist, interoperate, and adapt in the air domain, all within highly contested operational environments. No one does this better than the U.S. Air Force, but we will lose that edge if we don't move forward now."

This solicitation release formally begins the source selection process providing industry with the requirements the DAF expects for NGAD, as the future replacement of the F-22 Raptor. The NGAD acquisition strategy will invigorate and broaden the industrial base to deliver rapid and innovative warfighting capabilities. The strategy incorporates lessons learned from recent Air Force acquisition programs and will leverage open architecture standards. This approach will enable the government to maximize competition throughout the life cycle, provide a larger, more responsive industry base and drastically reduce maintenance and sustainment costs.

The NGAD Platform was one of many critical combat capabilities that will enable counter-air missions with the ability to strike both airborne and ground-based threats to achieve air superiority and support the Joint Force. Further information on the NGAD Platform's technical and programmatic details are classified to protect operational and technological advantages. The Collaborative Combat Aircraft program was not part of this NGAD Platform source selection.

Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) is a family of capabilities enabling Air Superiority for the Joint Force in the most challenging operational environments. The program matures technology and reduces risk through prototyping activities and demonstration efforts. Key NGAD attributes include enhancements in survivability, lethality, and persistence across a range of military operations. The NGAD program is directed by Joint Requirements Oversight Council Memorandum (JROCM) 043-13 and CSAF approved Air Superiority Enterprise Capability Collaboration Team (ECCT) Flight Plan. Program activities will also include the pursuit of open architecture solutions including Open Mission Standards (OMS) and Universal Control Interface (UCI) standards management and preplanned product improvements. Funding provides program management support, operational concept exploration, technology studies, multi-domain integration assessments, operational and system architecture development, maturation and risk reduction of air superiority related technologies, including weapons systems and integrated system concept development and demonstration.

The NGAD Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) was completed in 2019. The 2030+ Air Dominance (AD) candidate concepts consist of operational analyses, threat studies and technology candidate assessments and prototyping to identify operational concepts and technologies that improve persistence, survivability, lethality, connectivity, interoperability and affordability in 2030 and beyond. These efforts will provide for contractors to conduct analyses, identify technology candidates and perform concept refinement. Furthermore, studies are required to develop operational/system architectures to include family of systems and system of systems. In addition, technical risk reduction activities will be performed to include experimentation, integration and building demonstrative prototypes.

The 2030+ AD working groups methodically assessed candidate concepts using USAF directives and guidance. Resulting concepts informed the NGAD Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), which was completed in 2019. Ongoing studies are conducted to refine system concepts and operational/system architectures incorporating family of systems and system of systems that may be required to inform and support strategic choices. In addition, technical risk reduction studies concerning technology integration, operational and system trade space utilizing preliminary data from AD concept development have resulted in multiple activities and engagements to inform strategic USAF experimentation and prototyping efforts. Finally, technical overviews were presented to the Air Force - Scientific Advisory Board (AF-SAB) and other senior leaders.

On September 15, 2020, U.S. Air Force acquisition executive Dr. Will Roper announced that the Air Force had flown a full-scale flight demonstrator as part of the Next Generation Air Dominance NGAD program.