Assessments and Measures of Effectiveness in Stability Operations Handbook
Handbook 10-41
May 2010
Chapter 2 - Assessment Support to Planning
The Tactical Conflict Assessment Planning Framework
Assessment must be built into military planning and decision making in stability operations. A method to integrate assessment into operational and tactical planning is to include the tactical conflict assessment and planning framework (TCAPF) from Appendix C, of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Principles for Reconstruction in Field Manual (FM) 3-07, Stability Operations.
Successful stability operations are predicated on (1) identifying and reducing the causes of instability and (2) reestablishing or building community and state capacity to diminish, manage, or prevent them in the future. To increase the effectiveness of stability operations, USAID created the TCAPF. The TCAPF was designed to assist commanders and their staffs identify the causes of instability, develop activities to diminish or mitigate them, and evaluate the effectiveness of the activities in fostering stability in a tactical-level (brigade, battalion, or company) area of operations (AO). The TCAPF should be used to create local stabilization plans and provide data for the interagency conflict assessment framework (ICAF), which has a strategic- and operational-level (country, regional) focus.
It is important to note, that while the TCAPF may appear to be a distinct process from the military decisionmaking process (MDMP) and the eventual operation plan or operation order, but the TCAPF is merely the socio-political input to the decision making process. It provides input current intelligence methods/processes do not produce, and should thus be seen as an important component of the MDMP because the TCAPF supports MDMP.
Figure 2-1
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework Support to the Military Decisionmaking Process
The TCAPF supports the MDMP by providing what constitutes a mechanism for the commander and his staff to see how their plan is achieving goals, objectives, and end state. The TCAPF can also help identify causes of instability and place possible solutions against these causes.
The TCAPF will also help determine the measures of effectiveness (MOEs) and organize data into understandable formats to measure success. The TCAPF can also do the same with measures of performance (MOPs).
The TCAPF will measure the impact of programs and actions to assist the planners by recommending required changes.
To be effective, the TCAPF methodology must be integrated into staff processes. If it is only an "add-on," it will not be effective. The TCAPF has been successfully used in various theaters to identify, prioritize, and target the causes of instability in a measurable and immediately accessible way. Since it makes maximum use of assets in the field and measures the effectiveness of activities over time and across multiple unit rotations, it is an important tool for conducting stabilization operations.
The TCAPF is an assessment tool based on the following theory:
Perceptions of the population cause actions that instigate instability and foster insurgency. By carefully targeting the real causes of instability, perceptions of the population can be positively affected.
The Causes of the Insurgency
Revolutionary situations may result from regime changes, external interventions, or grievances carefully nurtured and manipulated by unscrupulous leaders. Sometimes societies are most prone to unrest when the situation begins to improve and people"s expectations rise. For example, when major combat operations conclude people may have unrealistic expectations of the U.S." capability to improve their lives. The resulting discontent can fuel unrest and insurgency. At such times, the influences of globalization and the international media may create a sense of relative deprivation contributing to increased discontent as well. FM 3-24, Counterinsurgency, para 1-11, accepts that for an insurgency to exist, there must first be a grievance or injustice felt among the people with the insurgent exploiting this perceived grievance by presenting himself as the viable solution to the population"s needs. The people therefore have to choose between trusting the government and trusting the insurgent. If the people have more trust in the insurgent, the insurgency will persist.
Identifying the Cause-Theory
It is important to understand the difference between symptoms and causes of instability. Quick impact projects and the like are presently initiated in response to the wants or needs of the people. This equates to satisfying a popular but potentially superficial request which may build consent but not tackle the cause of instability. For example, the people ask for a school. Based on this, under current practice, the provincial reconstruction team (PRT) would construct a school to meet this need. However, the want for a school is only a symptom of instability; the cause is the local government has not effectively met the needs of the people by providing an effective education system. The priority of action, in this example, would therefore be to build government effectiveness so that it can deliver an education program that satisfies the people. This way the cause is tackled using a symptom as a backdrop.
Identifying the Cause-Practice
To identify the causes of instability, the TCAPF asks the people to explain their grievances and then prioritize them. This is accomplished by asking very simple but standard questions to the people across the AO. All the responses are tracked and logged in a database so opinions can be grouped and quantified clearly. This way, the greatest grievances can be easily picked out and addressed first, generating a focused plan for targeted action using kinetic and nonkinetic effects to resolve the grievances of the people. The TCAPF is a method of steering the counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign.
How to Measure Effect
The TCAPF continually asks the people the same basic four questions so, over time, the changing opinion of the population can be tracked, compared, measured, and displayed. By not being subjective, the results of the questioning cannot be altered by those who ask questions or analyze results. Thus a longer-term narrative of the people is created that should ease situational awareness of new troops into theater and provide continuity of analysis and action.
Collectors must understand the importance of the TCAPF to the accomplishment of their mission and should know the basic tenets and outline of the program.
The TCAPF will provide the baseline and metric for stability within their AO. The TCAPF is the agreed upon metric for assessing stabilization and will be used to determine if progress has been made within a region. Activity and projects do not translate into progress unless it is verified through the TCAPF assessments.
The TCAPF process will help identify the geographic regions and root causes of instability in the AO. When executed properly, the TCAPF process will graphically represent potential areas of instability. Follow-up questioning will identify key symptoms that should lead to root causes. Addressing those root causes is the basis for improving the stability of that region or segment of the population.
The TCAPF should not require a major change in the activities and processes that are currently in place, but provide clarity and focus to them ensuring that instability and conflict are addressed. Note: The TCAPF questionnaire and sample TCAPF spreadsheet are found in Appendix A.
The Provincial Reconstruction Team Maturity Model
The PRT program is a U.S.-led, civil-military effort to improve the capabilities of provincial and local governments to govern effectively and deliver essential services. Another term for PRT is the forward advanced civilian team. The PRT program provides integrated and multidisciplinary teams of U.S. and coalition personnel to teach, coach, and mentor provincial and local government officials in core competencies of governance and economic development. The PRT will conduct assessments in these areas and will track progress in their maturity models (see Appendix A).
The PRTs and embedded PRTs (ePRTs) comprise personnel and subject matter experts from the Department of State, USAID, other U.S. government departments and agencies, the U.S. military, native born expatriates, contractors, and local nationals.
The ePRTs are embedded with brigade combat teams (BCTs) and are responsible for providing advice, expertise, and program management to support the local COIN strategy devised with their BCT.
In the assessment process, the BCT and PRT must closely coordinate their collection and reporting efforts to gather and portray useful and consistent information.
The Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework
The ICAF is a U.S. government interagency process; only military organizations at the highest levels will participate in the ICAF. Assessments and collections done by subordinate military units may be incorporated into the ICAF process.
The ICAF is a strategic-level process that draws on existing conflict assessment procedures like the TCAPF, used by U.S. government departments and agencies as well as international and nongovernmental organizations. The ICAF organizes all these assessments into a common framework. This framework is used by all U.S. government departments and agencies to gain a common understanding of the country or region, and to conduct and coordinate planning.
The ICAF does not duplicate or replace existing department or agency assessment process. It brings together individual assessments and data.
U.S. government departments and agencies are able to use the ICAF to leverage and share knowledge gained from their individual assessments and establish a common interagency perspective on individual countries or entire regions.
Applying the Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework
The ICAF is the first step in the interagency planning process by informing and clarifying U.S. government goals. The ICAF provides an informational framework for the design of programs and adjustment of activities and resource allocation.
The ICAF supports the interagency planning process by determining which agency or department initiates and participates in an assessment, time and place of the assessment, type and application of the products needed, and the level of classification.
The ICAF is a flexible and scalable interagency tool for use in:
- Steady-state engagement and conflict prevention planning.
- U.S. government reconstruction and stabilization contingency planning.
- U.S. government reconstruction and stabilization crises response planning.
The TCAPF has been successfully used in various theaters to identify, prioritize, and target the causes of instability in a measurable and immediately accessible way. Since it makes maximum use of assets in the field and measures the effectiveness of activities over time and across multiple unit rotations, it is an important tool for conducting stabilization operations.
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