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Contents
Executive
Summary
Methodology
Introduction
The
Contradictions of Globalization
Rising
Powers
New
Challenges to Governance
Pervasive
Insecurity
Policy
Implications
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Report
of the
National Intelligence Council's
2020 Project
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Whereas in Global Trends
2015 we viewed globalization-growing interconnectedness
reflected in the expanded flows of information, technology,
capital, goods, services, and people throughout the
world-as among an array of key drivers, we now view
it more as a "mega-trend"-a force so ubiquitous that
it will substantially shape all of the other major trends
in the world of 2020.
"[By 2020] globalization
is likely to take on much more of a 'non-Western' face."
The reach of globalization was substantially broadened during
the last 20 years by Chinese and Indian economic liberalization,
the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the worldwide
information technology revolution. Through
the next 15 years, it will sustain world economic growth,
raise world living standards, and substantially deepen
global interdependence. At the same time,
it will profoundly shake up the status quo almost everywhere-generating
enormous economic, cultural, and consequently political
convulsions.
Certain aspects of globalization,
such as the growing global inter-connectedness stemming
from the information technology revolution, are likely
to be irreversible. Real-time communication,
which has transformed politics almost everywhere, is
a phenomenon that even repressive governments would
find difficult to expunge.
- It will
be difficult, too, to turn off the phenomenon of entrenched
economic interdependence, although the pace of global
economic expansion may ebb and flow. Interdependence
has widened the effective reach of multinational business,
enabling smaller firms as well as large multinationals
to market across borders and bringing heretofore non-traded
services into the international arena.
Yet the process of globalization,
powerful as it is, could be substantially slowed or
even reversed, just as the era of globalization in the
late 19th and early 20th centuries
was reversed by catastrophic war and global depression. Some
features that we associate with the globalization of
the 1990s-such as economic and political liberalization-are
prone to "fits and starts" and probably will depend
on progress in multilateral negotiations, improvements
in national governance, and the reduction of conflicts. The
freer flow of people across national borders will continue
to face social and political obstacles even when there
is a pressing need for migrant workers.
"India
and China probably will be among the economic heavyweights
or 'haves.'"
What
Would An Asian Face on Globalization Look Like?
Rising Asia will
continue to reshape globalization, giving it less
of a "Made in the USA" character and more of an Asian
look and feel. At the same time, Asia will
alter the rules of the globalizing process. By
having the fastest-growing consumer markets, more
firms becoming world-class multinationals, and greater
S&T stature, Asia looks set to displace Western
countries as the focus for international economic
dynamism-provided Asia's rapid economic growth continues.
Asian finance
ministers have considered establishing an Asian monetary
fund that would operate along different lines from
IMF, attaching fewer strings on currency swaps and
giving Asian decision-makers more leeway from the
"Washington macro-economic consensus."
- In terms
of capital flows, rising Asia may still accumulate
large currency reserves-currently $850 billion in
Japan, $500 billion in China, $190 billion in Korea,
and $120 million in India, or collectively three-quarters
of global reserves-but the percentage held in dollars
will fall. A basket of reserve currencies
including the yen, renminbi, and possibly rupee
probably will become standard practice.
- Interest-rate decisions taken by Asian central
bankers will impact other global financial markets,
including New York and London, and the returns from
Asian stock markets are likely to become an increasing
global benchmark for portfolio managers.
As governments
devote more resources to basic research and development,
rising Asia will continue to attract applied technology
from around the world, including cutting-edge technology,
which should boost their high performance sectors. We
already anticipate (as stated in the text) that the
Asian giants may use the power of their markets to
set industry standards, rather than adopting those
promoted by Western nations or international standards
bodies. The international intellectual
property rights regime will be profoundly molded by
IPR regulatory and law enforcement practices in East
and South Asia.
Increased labor
force participation in the global economy, especially
by China, India, and Indonesia, will have enormous
effects, possibly spurring internal and regional migrations. Either
way it will have a large impact, determining the relative
size of the world's greatest new "mega-cities" and,
perhaps, act as a key variable for political stability/instability
for decades to come. To the degree that
these vast internal migrations spill over national
borders-currently, only a miniscule fraction of China's
100 million internal migrants end up abroad-they could
have major repercussions for other regions, including
Europe and North America.
An expanded Asian-centric
cultural identity may be the most profound effect
of a rising Asia. Asians have already begun
to reduce the percentage of students who travel to
Europe and North America with Japan and-most striking-China
becoming educational magnets. A new, more
Asian cultural identity is likely to be rapidly packaged
and distributed as incomes rise and communications
networks spread. Korean pop singers are already the
rage in Japan, Japanese anime have many fans
in China, and Chinese kung-fu movies and Bollywood
song-and-dance epics are viewed throughout Asia. Even
Hollywood has begun to reflect these Asian influences-an
effect that is likely to accelerate through 2020.
Moreover, the character of globalization probably will change
just as capitalism changed over the course of the 19th
and 20th centuries. While today's
most advanced nations-especially the United States-will
remain important forces driving capital, technology
and goods, globalization is likely to take on much more
of a "non-Western face" over the next 15 years.
- Most of
the increase in world population and consumer demand
through 2020 will take place in today's developing
nations-especially China, India, and Indonesia-and
multinational companies from today's advanced nations
will adapt their "profiles" and business practices
to the demands of these cultures.
- Able to disperse technology widely and promote economic
progress in the developing world, corporations already
are seeking to be "good citizens" by allowing the
retention of non-Western practices in the workplaces
in which they operate. Corporations are
in the position to make globalization more palatable
to people concerned about preserving unique cultures.
- New or expanding corporations from countries lifted
up by globalization will make their presence felt
globally through trade and investments abroad.
- Countries that have benefited and are now in position
to weigh in will seek more power in international
bodies and greater influence on the "rules of the
game."
- In our interactions, many foreign experts have noted
that while popular opinion in their countries favors
the material benefits of globalization, citizens are
opposed to its perceived "Americanization," which
they see as threatening to their cultural and religious
values. The conflation of globalization
with US values has in turn fueled anti-Americanism
in some parts of the world.
".the
world economy is projected to be about 80 percent larger
in 2020 than it was in 2000, and average per capita
income to be roughly 50 percent higher."
Currently, about two-thirds of the world's population live in
countries that are connected to the global economy. Even
by 2020, however, the benefits of globalization won't
be global. Over the next 15 years, gaps will
widen between those countries benefiting from globalization-economically,
technologically, and socially-and those underdeveloped
nations or pockets within nations that are left behind. Indeed,
we see the next 15 years as a period in which the perceptions
of the contradictions and uncertainties of a globalized
world come even more to the fore than is the case today.
An
Expanding and Integrating Global Economy
The world economy is projected to be about
80 percent larger in 2020 than it was in 2000 and average
per capita income to be roughly 50 percent higher. Large
parts of the world will enjoy unprecedented prosperity,
and a numerically large middle class will be
created for the first time in some formerly poor countries. The
social structures in those developing countries will
be transformed as growth creates a greater middle class. Over
a long time frame, there is the potential, so long as
the expansion continues, for more traditionally poor
countries to be pulled closer into the globalization
circle.
What
Could Derail Globalization?
The process
of globalization, powerful as it is, could be substantially
slowed or even stopped. Short of a major
global conflict, which we regard as improbable, another
large-scale development that we believe could stop
globalization would be a pandemic. However,
other catastrophic developments, such as terrorist
attacks, could slow its speed.
Some experts
believe it is only a matter of time before a new pandemic
appears, such as the 1918-1919 influenza virus that
killed an estimated 20 million worldwide. Such
a pandemic in megacities of the developing world with
poor health-care systems-in Sub-Saharan Africa, China,
India, Bangladesh or Pakistan-would be devastating
and could spread rapidly throughout the world. Globalization
would be endangered if the death toll rose into the
millions in several major countries and the spread
of the disease put a halt to global travel and trade
during an extended period, prompting governments to
expend enormous resources on overwhelmed health sectors. On
the positive side of the ledger, the response to SARS
showed that international surveillance and control
mechanisms are becoming more adept at containing diseases,
and new developments in biotechnologies hold the promise
of continued improvement.
A slow-down
could result from a pervasive sense of economic
and physical insecurity that led governments
to put controls on the flow of capital, goods, people,
and technology that stalled economic growth. Such
a situation could come about in response to terrorist
attacks killing tens or even hundreds of thousands
in several US cities or in Europe
or to widespread cyber attacks on information
technology. Border controls and restrictions
on technology exchanges would increase economic transaction
costs and hinder innovation and economic growth. Other
developments that could stimulate similar restrictive
policies include a popular backlash against globalization
prompted, perhaps, by white collar rejection of outsourcing
in the wealthy countries and/or resistance in poor
countries whose peoples saw themselves as victims
of globalization.
Most forecasts
to 2020 and beyond continue to show higher annual growth
for developing countries than for high-income ones. Countries
such as China and India will be in a position to achieve
higher economic growth than Europe and Japan, whose
aging work forces may inhibit their growth. Given
its enormous population-and assuming a reasonable degree
of real currency appreciation-the dollar value of China's
gross national product (GNP) may be the second largest
in the world by 2020. For similar reasons,
the value of India's output could match that of a large
European country. The economies of other
developing countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia,
could surpass all but the largest European economies
by 2020.
- Even with
all their dynamic growth, Asia's "giants" and others
are not likely to compare qualitatively to the economies
of the US or even some of the other rich countries. They
will have some dynamic, world-class sectors, but more
of their populations will work on farms, their capital
stocks will be less sophisticated, and their financial
systems are likely to be less efficient than those
of other wealthy countries.
Continued Economic Turbulence. Sustained high-growth rates have historical precedents. China
already has had about two decades of 7 percent and higher
growth rates, and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have
managed in the past to achieve annual rates averaging
around 10 percent for a long
period.
Fast-developing countries have historically
suffered sudden setbacks, however, and economic
turbulence is increasingly
likely to spill over and upset broader international
relations. Many emerging markets-such as
Mexico in the mid-1990s and Asian countries in the late
1990s-suffered negative effects from the abrupt reversals
of capital movements, and China and India may encounter
similar problems. The scale of the potential reversals
would be unprecedented, and it is unclear whether current
international financial mechanisms would be in a position
to forestall wider economic disruption.
"Competitive
pressures will force companies based in the advanced
economies to 'outsource' many blue- and white-collar
jobs."
With the gradual
integration of China, India, and other developing countries
into the global economy, hundreds of millions of working-age
adults will join what is becoming, through trade and
investment flows, a more interrelated world labor market. World
patterns of production, trade, employment, and wages
will be transformed.
- This enormous
work force-a growing portion of which will be well
educated-will be an attractive, competitive source
of low-cost labor at the same time that technological
innovation is expanding the range of globally mobile
occupations.
- Competition from these workers will increase job
"churning," necessitate professional retooling, and
restrain wage growth in some occupations.
Where these labor
market pressures lead will depend on how political leaders
and policymakers respond. Against the backdrop
of a global economic recession, such resources could
unleash widespread protectionist sentiments. As
long as sufficiently robust economic growth and labor
market flexibility are sustained, however, intense international
competition is unlikely to cause net job "loss"
in the advanced economies.
- The large
number of new service sector jobs that will be created
in India and elsewhere in the developing world, for
example, will likely exceed the supply of workers with
those specific skills in the advanced economies.
- Job turnover in advanced economies will continue to
be driven more by technological change and the vicissitudes
of domestic rather than international competition.
Mobility
and Laggards. Although
the living standards of many people in developing and
underdeveloped countries will rise over the next 15
years, per capita incomes in most countries will not
compare to those of Western nations by 2020. There
will continue to be large numbers of poor even in the
rapidly emerging economies, and the proportion of those
in the middle stratum is likely to be significantly
less than is the case for today's developed nations. Experts
estimate it could take China another 30 years beyond
2020 for per capita incomes to reach current
rates in developed economies.
- Even if,
as one study estimates, China's middle class could
make up as much as 40 percent of its population by
2020-double what it is now-it would be still
well below the 60 percent level for the US. And
per capita income for China's middle class would be
substantially less than equivalents in the West.
- In India, there are now estimated to be some 300
million middle-income earners making $2,000-$4,000
a year. Both the number of middle earners
and their income levels are likely to rise rapidly,
but their incomes will continue to be substantially
below averages in the US and other rich countries
even by 2020.
- However, a $3,000 annual income is considered sufficient
to spur car purchases in Asia; thus rapidly rising
income levels for a growing middle class
will combine to mean a huge consumption explosion,
which is already evident.
Widening income
and regional disparities will not be incompatible with
a growing middle class and increasing overall wealth. In
India, although much of the west and south may have
a large middle class by 2020, a number of regions such
as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Orissa will remain underdeveloped.
Moreover, countries
not connected to the world economy will continue to
suffer. Even the most optimistic forecasts
admit that economic growth fueled by globalization will
leave many countries in poverty over the next 15 years.
- Scenarios
developed by the World Bank indicate, for example,
that Sub-Saharan Africa will be far behind even under
the most optimistic scenario. The region
currently has the largest share of people living
on less than $1 per day.
If the growing
problem of abject poverty and bad governance in troubled
states in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, the Middle East,
and Latin America persists, these areas will become
more fertile grounds for terrorism, organized crime,
and pandemic disease. Forced migration also
is likely to be an important dimension of any downward
spiral. The international community is likely
to face choices about whether, how, and at what cost
to intervene.
".the
greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries
and groups that can access and adopt new technologies."
The
Technology Revolution
The trend toward rapid, global diffusion of
technology will continue, although the stepped-up technology
revolution will not benefit everyone equally.
- Among
the drivers of the growing availability of technology
will be the growing two-way flow of high-tech brain
power between developing countries and Western countries,
the increasing size of the technologically literate
workforce in some developing countries, and efforts
by multinational corporations to diversify their high-tech
operations.
New
technology applications will foster dramatic improvements
in human knowledge and individual well-being. Such
benefits include medical breakthroughs that begin to
cure or mitigate some common diseases and stretch lifespans,
applications that improve food and potable water production,
and expansion of wireless communications and language
translation technologies that will facilitate transnational
business, commercial, and even social and political
relationships.
To
Adaptive Nations Go Technology 's Spoils. The gulf between "haves" and "have-nots" may
widen as the greatest benefits of globalization accrue
to countries and groups that can access and adopt
new technologies. Indeed, a nation's level
of technological achievement generally will be defined
in terms of its investment in integrating and
applying the new, globally available technologies-whether
the technologies are acquired through a country's own
basic research or from technology leaders. Nations
that remain behind in adopting technologies are likely
to be those that have failed to pursue policies that
support application of new technologies-such as good
governance, universal education, and market reforms-and
not solely because they are poor.
Those
that employ such policies can leapfrog stages of development,
skipping over phases that other high-tech leaders such
as the United States and Europe had to traverse in order
to advance. China and India are well positioned to achieve
such breakthroughs. Yet, even the poorest
countries will be able to leverage prolific, cheap technologies
to fuel-although at a slower rate-their own development.
- As nations
like China and India surge forward in funding critical
science and engineering education, research, and other
infrastructure investments, they will make considerable
strides in manufacturing and marketing a full range
of technology applications-from software and pharmaceuticals
to wireless sensors and smart-materials products.
Rapid technological
advances outside the United States could enable other
countries to set the rules for design, standards, and
implementation, and for molding privacy, information
security, and intellectual property rights (IPR).
- Indeed,
international IPR enforcement is on course for dramatic
change. Countries like China and India
will, because of the purchasing power of their huge
markets, be able to shape the implementation of some
technologies and step on the intellectual property
rights of others. The attractiveness of
these large markets will tempt multinational firms
to overlook IPR indiscretions that only minimally
affect their bottom lines. Additionally,
as many of the expected advancements in technology
are anticipated to be in medicine, there will be increasing
pressure from a humanitarian and moral perspective
to "release" the property rights "for the good of
mankind."
Nations
also will face serious challenges in oversight, control,
and prohibition of sensitive technologies. With
the same technology, such as sensors, computing, communication,
and materials, increasingly being developed for a range
of applications in both everyday, commercial settings
and in critical military applications the monitoring
and control of the export of technological components
will become more difficult. Moreover, joint
ventures, globalized markets and the growing proportion
of private sector capital in basic R&D will undermine
nation-state efforts to keep tabs on sensitive technologies.
- Questions
concerning a country's ethical practices in the technology
realm-such as with genetically modified foods, data
privacy, biological material research, concealable
sensors, and biometric devices-may become an increasingly
important factor in international trade policy and
foreign relations.
Biotechnology: Panacea
and Weapon
The biotechnological
revolution is at a relatively early stage, and major
advances in the biological sciences coupled with information
technology will continue to punctuate the 21st century. Research
will continue to foster important discoveries in innovative
medical and public health technologies, environmental
remediation, agriculture, biodefense, and related
fields.
On the positive
side, biotechnology could be a "leveling" agent between
developed and developing nations, spreading dramatic
economic and healthcare enhancements to the neediest
areas of the world.
- Possible
breakthroughs in biomedicine such as an antiviral
barrier will reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS, helping
to resolve the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sub-Saharan
Africa and diminishing the potentially serious drag
on economic growth in developing countries like
India and China. Biotechnology research
and innovations derived from continued US investments
in Homeland Security-such as new therapies that
might block a pathogen's ability to enter the body-may
eventually have revolutionary healthcare applications
that extend beyond protecting the US from a terrorist
attack.
- More developing countries probably will invest
in indigenous biotechnology developments, while
competitive market pressures increasingly will induce
firms and research institutions to seek technically
capable partners in developing countries.
However, even
as the dispersion of biotechnology promises a means
of improving the quality of life, it also poses a
major security concern. As biotechnology
information becomes more widely available, the number
of people who can potentially misuse such information
and wreak widespread loss of life will increase. An
attacker would appear to have an easier job-because
of the large array of possibilities available-than
the defender, who must prepare against them all. Moreover,
as biotechnology advances become more ubiquitous,
stopping the progress of offensive BW programs will
become increasingly difficult. Over the
next 10 to 20 years there is a risk that advances
in biotechnology will augment not only defensive measures
but also offensive biological warfare (BW) agent development
and allow the creation of advanced biological agents
designed to target specific systems-human, animal,
or crop.
Lastly, some
biotechnology techniques that may facilitate major
improvements in health also will spur serious ethical
and privacy concerns over such matters as comprehensive
genetic profiling; stem cell research; and the possibility
of discovering DNA signatures that indicate predisposition
for disease, certain cognitive abilities, or anti-social
behavior.
At
the same time, technology will be a source of tension
in 2020: from competition over creating and
attracting the most critical component of technological
advancement-people-to resistance among some cultural
or political groups to the perceived privacy-robbing
or homogenizing effects of pervasive technology.
Lingering
Social Inequalities
Even with the potential for technological breakthroughs
and the dispersion of new technologies, which could
help reduce inequalities, significant social welfare
disparities within the developing and between developing
and OECD countries will remain until 2020.
Over the next 15
years, illiteracy rates of people 15 years and older
will fall, according to UNESCO, but they will still
be 17 times higher in poor and developing countries
than those in OECD countries. Moreover, illiteracy
rates among women will be almost twice as high as those
among men. Between 1950 and 1980 life expectancy
between the more- and less-developed nations began to
converge markedly; this probably will continue to be
the case for many developing countries, including the
most populous. However, by US Census Bureau
projections, over 40 countries-including many African
countries, Central Asian states, and Russia-are projected
to have a lower life expectancy in 2010 than they did
in 1990.
Even if effective
HIV/AIDS prevention measures are adopted in various
countries, the social and economic impact of the millions
already infected with the disease will play out over
the next 15 years.
- The rapid
rise in adult deaths caused by AIDS has left an unprecedented
number of orphans in Africa. Today in some
African countries one in ten children is an orphan,
and the situation is certain to worsen.
The debilitation
and death of millions of people resulting from the AIDS
pandemic will have a growing impact on the economies
of the hardest-hit countries, particularly those in
Sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 20 million are believed
to have died from HIV/AIDS since the early 1980s. Studies
show that household incomes drop by 50 to 80 percent
when key earners become infected. In "second
wave" HIV/AIDS countries-Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia,
India, China, Brazil, Ukraine, and the Central Asian
states-the disease will continue to spread beyond traditional
high-risk groups into the general population. As
HIV/AIDS spreads, it has the potential to derail the
economic prospects of many up-and-coming economic powers.
The
Status of Women in 2020
By 2020, women
will have gained more rights and freedoms-in terms
of education, political participation, and work force
equality-in most parts of the world, but UN and World
Health Organization data suggest that the gender gap
will not have been closed even in the developed countries
and still will be wide in developing regions. Although
women's share in the global work force will continue
to rise, wage gaps and regional disparities will persist.
- Although
the difference between women's and men's earnings
narrowed during the past 10 years, women continue
to receive less pay than men. For example,
a UN study in 2002 showed that in 27 of 39 countries
surveyed-both in OECD and developing countries-women's
wages were 20 to 50 percent less than men's for
work in manufacturing.
Certain factors
will tend to work against gender equality while others
will have a positive impact.
Factors Impeding
Equality
In
regions where high youth bulges intersect
with historical patterns of patriarchal bias, the
added pressure on infrastructure will mean intensified
competition for limited public resources and an increased
probability that females will not receive equal treatment. For
instance, if schools cannot educate all, boys are
likely to be given first priority. Yet
views are changing among the younger generation. In
the Middle East, for example, many younger Muslims
recognize the importance of educated wives as potential
contributors to family income.
In countries
such as China and India, where there is a pervasive
"son preference" reinforced by government population
control policies, women face increased risk
not only of female infanticide but also of kidnapping
and smuggling from surrounding regions for the disproportionately
greater number of unattached males. Thus
far, the preference for male children in China has
led to an estimated shortfall of 30 million women.
Such statistics
suggest that the global female trafficking industry,
which already earns an estimated $4 billion every
year, is likely to expand, making it the second most
profitable criminal activity behind global drug trafficking.
The feminization
of HIV/AIDS is another worrisome trend. Findings
from the July 2004 Global AIDS conference held in
Bangkok reveal that the percentage of HIV-infected
women is rising on every continent and in every major
region in the world except Western Europe and Australia. Young
women comprise 75 percent of those between the ages
of 15 to 24 who are infected with HIV globally.
Factors
Contributing to Equality
A broader reform agenda that includes good governance
and low unemployment levels is essential to
raising the status of women in many countries. International
development experts emphasize that while good governance
need not fit a Western democratic mold, it must deliver
stability through inclusiveness and accountability. Reducing
unemployment levels is crucial because countries already
unable to provide employment for male job-seekers
are not likely to improve employment opportunities
for women.
The spread
of information and communication technologies
(ICT) offers great promise. According to
World Bank analysis, increases in the level of ICT
infrastructure tend to improve gender equality in
education and employment. ICT also will
enable women to form social and political networks. For
regions suffering political oppression, particularly
in the Middle East, these networks could become a
21st century counterpart to the 1980s'
Solidarity Movement against the Communist regime in
Poland.
Women in developing
regions often turn to nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) to provide basic services. NGOs
could become even more important to the status of
women by 2020 as women in developing countries face
increased threats and acquire IT networking capabilities.
The current
trend toward decentralization and devolution of power
in most states will afford women increased opportunities
for political participation. Despite
only modest gains in the number of female officeholders
at the national level-women currently are heads of
state in only eight countries-female participation
in local and provincial politics is steadily rising
and will especially benefit rural women removed from
the political center of a country.
Other
Benefits
The
stakes for achieving gender parity are high and not
just for women. A growing body of empirical
literature suggests that gender equality in education
promotes economic growth and reduces child mortality
and malnutrition. At the Millennium Summit,
UN leaders pledged to achieve gender equity in primary
and secondary education by the year 2005 in every
country of the world.
- By 2005,
the 45 countries that are not on course to meet
the UN targets are likely to suffer 1 to 3 percent
lower GDP per capita growth as a result.
Fictional Scenario:
Davos World
This
scenario provides an illustration of how robust economic
growth over the next 15 years could reshape the globalization
process-giving it a more non-Western face. It
is depicted in the form of a hypothetical letter from
the head of the World Economic Forum to a former US
Federal Reserve chairman on the eve of the annual Davos
meeting in 2020. Under this scenario, the
Asian giants as well as other developing states continue
to outpace most "Western" economies, and their huge,
consumer-driven domestic markets become a major focus
for global business and technology. Many
boats are lifted, but some founder. Africa
does better than one might think, while some medium-sized
emerging countries are squeezed. Western
powers, including the United States, have to contend
with job insecurity despite the many benefits to be
derived from an expanding global economy. Although
benefiting from energy price increases, the Middle East
lags behind and threatens the future of globalization. In
addition, growing tensions over Taiwan may be on the
verge of triggering an economic meltdown. At
the end of the scenario, we identify some lessons to
be drawn from our fictional account, including the need
for more management by leaders lest globalization slip
off the rails.
(Click on any image below for scenario
text.)
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