Find a Security Clearance Job!

Intelligence

National Intelligence Council banner

Mapping the Global Future

Global Trends
2015

Global Trends
2010

Contents

Executive Summary

Methodology

Introduction

The Contradictions of Globalization

Rising Powers

New Challenges to Governance

Pervasive Insecurity

Policy Implications

Document Title: Mapping the Global Future

 

Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project

Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental Experts
Around the World

 

NIC 2004-13
December 2004
To Purchase a Hardcopy (available later this month)
(GPO stock number
041-015-0024-6) (6.69 MB)

CONTENTS


(Click on either image below for letter text.)

Letter from the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Image #1. Click image for full letter text.

Letter from the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, Image #2. Click image for full letter text.

  Contents
Page

    Executive Summary
9

    Methodology
19

    Introduction
25

    The Contradictions of Globalization
27
      An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy
29
      The Technology Revolution
34
      Lingering Social Inequalities
37
      Fictional Scenario: Davos World
40

    Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
47
      Rising Asia
48
      Other Rising States?
51
      The “Aging” Powers
56
      Growing Demands for Energy
59
      US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last?
63
      Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana
64

    New Challenges to Governance
73
      Halting Progress on Democratization
73
      Identity Politics
79
      Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate
83

    Pervasive Insecurity
93
      Transmuting International Terrorism
93
      Intensifying Internal Conflicts
97
      Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?
98
      The WMD Factor
100
      Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear
104

    Policy Implications
111

 

Graphics and Tables
  China's and India's Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US
31
  When China's and India's GDPs Would Exceed Today's Rich Countries
32
  Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020
48
  China's Rise
50
  Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 2003-2025
51
  Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020
59
  An Expanding European Union
60
  Number of Religious Adherents, 1900-2025
80
  Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992
82
  EU: Estimated and Projected Ratios of Muslims to Ethnic Europeans, 1985-2025
83
  Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003
101

 

Special Topics
  The 2020 Global Landscape
8
  Mapping the Global Future
26
  What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like?
28
  What Could Derail Globalization?
30
  Biotechnology:  Panacea and Weapon
36
  The Status of Women in 2020
38
  Risks to Chinese Economic Growth
52
  India vs. China:  Long-Term Prospects
53
  Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change?
55
  Global Aging and Migration
58
  Could Europe Become A Superpower?
61
  The Geopolitics of Gas
62
  Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways?
74
  Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020
76
  Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split?
78
  Organized Crime
96
  Cyber Warfare?
97
  How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward?
99
  International Institutions in Crisis
102
  The Rules of War: Entering "No Man's Land"
103
  Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge
104
  Is the United States' Technological Prowess at Risk?
112
  How the World Sees the United States
114

   
   



NEWSLETTER
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list