E. Unmanned.Aerial Vehicles (UAV)
(U) The IC assessed since at least 2000 that Baghdad was developing UAVs which were probably intended to deliver biological warfare agents, and that the UAVs posed a threat to Iraq's neighbors and U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf. In the 2002 NIE, the IC assessed that Iraq was developing a UAV, "probably intended to deliver biological warfare agents," which could threaten the U.S. homeland if brought close to or into the U.S. The statement that the UAV was probably intended to deliver biological agents was made in the key judgments, and not in the main body of the delivery section of the NIE. The USAF disagreed with this assessment and added a footnote to the NIE which noted that it "does not agree that Iraq is developing UAVs primarily intended to be delivery platforms for chemical and biological warfare (CBW) agents. The small size of Iraq's new UAV strongly suggests a primary role of reconnaissance, although CBW delivery is an inherent capability." Of note, the text of the biological warfare section of the NIE was similar to the USAF footnote in stating that "although we have no information linking the current UAV development with BW delivery, this new airframe may represent another future method of BW delivery."
( ) The NIE assessment that Iraq was developing UAVs probably intended for BW delivery was based in part on information from UN inspections and Iraqi declarations. DELETED showed that in 1995 Iraq declared that it had a pre-Gulf War project to convert MIG-21 aircraft to pilotless aircraft with a drop tank that would deliver biological agent. Iraq conducted one experiment with this aircraft in 1991, but Iraq said it dropped the project because of the war. )prior to the Gulf War, Iraq had been working on a program to modify drop tanks for use on an F-1 Mirage fighter for chemical and biological weapons (CBW) dispersal, and had tested the aircraft using an anthrax simulant. Although this was a manned aircraft, IC analysts assessed that the drop tank work could have had applications for use with UAVs. DELETED also noted that Iraq had modified commercial crop sprayers for BW delivery at the Salman Pak facility that were assessed to be suitable for the dissemination of BW agents from helicopters or slow moving fixed wing aircraft. Iraq tested this aerosol generator on a helicopter with an anthrax simulant in 1988. SENTENCE DELETED SENTENCE DELETED Finally, IC analysts pointed to DELETED that in 1991 inspectors discovered eleven drones at the Salman Pak BW research, production, and storage facility. Iraqi declarations said that these drones were intended to be used as aerial targets for anti-aircraft artillery training and reconnaissance, not for BW delivery.
(U) IC analysts told Committee staff that when Iraq began to convert 1960s Czech-built L-29 jet trainers into UAVs in 1995, they assessed that Iraq may have intended to use the L-29s for CBW delivery instead of the MIG-21s they had worked on prior to the Gulf War. The IC provided the Committee with the five reports to support the assessment that the L-29s were intended for CBW delivery, only one of which said explicitly that the L-29 UAVs were intended to deliver unconventional weapons.
( )The IC provided the Committee with HUMINT which said that in February 1999, Iraq was working to increase the L-29s' payload and arm them with "special bombs." The report said the L-29s would be flown at low altitudes to targets outside Iraq, but provided no additional information.
( ) The IC also provided the Committee with three CIA HUMINT reports, all from the same source, DELETED28 The three reports all describe an L-29 deployment to Tallil, Iraq airbase in November 1997. When the L-29 unit arrived at the base, the commander of the air defense command informed the unit that their mission was to lure U.S. aircraft into a surface-to-air missile (SAM) trap. The unit's detachment commander later told the team that their "real" mission was to penetrate Kuwait and use the L-29s to "hit and scare" the Kuwaitis and Saudi Arabians. SENTENCE DELETED . SENTENCE DELETED . SENTENCE DELETED . The mission never took place. SENTENCE DELETED .
( ) A final report, DELETED said the L-29s were being developed as CBW delivery vehicles to attack Kuwait as revenge if the U.S. attacked Iraq. The method of attack was unspecified. SENTENCE DELETED
(U) The NIE also pointed to the involvement of the organization managing the L-29 program as being heavily involved in aerial spray technology and other technologies which could easily be applied to BW dissemination. A Department of Defense (DoD) HUMINT report provided to the Committee said the organization managing the UAV program was the Iraqi Air Force's main engineering and procurement entity and was involved in many aerial activities, including an agricultural spraying program. While spray technology has potential CBW dispersal applications, it also has civilian agricultural applications. It is unclear from the information provided to the Committee whether the spray technology program was linked to the UAV program or whether the engineering company was simply engaged in several aerial research and development programs.
( ) At the time of the NIE, the IC assessed that the status of the L-29 program was unknown because, after an L-29 crash in October 2000, no flight tests had been observed by intelligence. The IC then began to focus on Iraq's development of small UAVs, assessing that Iraq may have shifted its work to the small UAVs as a replacement for the L-29s. The IC provided the Committee with more than twenty *intelligence reports from a variety of sources which showed that Iraq was developing small UAVs, None of these reports, however, suggested that the small UAVs were probably intended for biological agent delivery as assessed in the 2002 NIE key judgments.
( ) The main body of the NIE text said that the IC was concerned about Iraq's development of small UAVs because "Iraq in the past has configured small UAVs to deliver BW agent, according to DELETED reporting, and UNSCOM discovered eleven small UAVs at the Iraqi BW research and development (R&D), production, and storage facility at Salman Pak." The IC provided the Committee with one CIA HUMINT report in which DELETED that during the Gulf War Iraq had stored about ten drones, designed and produced to deliver biological agents, at the Nasir State Establishment. An DELETED report provided to the Committee showed that inspectors discovered eleven drones at a separate facility in 1991, but the report did not note the intended purpose of the drones. Iraq's 1996 Full, Final, and Complete Disclosure said the drones were intended for reconnaissance and aerial targeting, not for BW delivery. Additional information from Iraq's declaration SENTENCE DELETED
( ) Because only one of these reports suggested that Iraq had developed small UAVs to deliver BW and because the reports all discussed Iraq's pre-Gulf War UAVs, the Committee requested that the IC provide any additional intelligence reports that demonstrated a direct link between the new small UAVs and a BW delivery role. In a written response to the Committee, the CIA said, "a large volume of reporting from multiple DELETED strongly suggested B W delivery as one of the goals for Iraq's small UAV program." The intelligence provided to the Committee with that response, however, did not provide any reports, dated prior to publication of the NIE, that suggested Iraq's post-Gulf War small UAV program was being developed to deliver BW. The IC provided three additional reports dated after the publication of the NIE from a foreign government service. The first report, dated October 26, 2002, said that an Iraqi Ministry of Defense official DELETED that some of Iraq's UAVs were loaded with "chemical materials." The second report DELETED, dated February 27, 2003, said that Iraq intended to use UAVs to monitor, and, if necessary, attack U.S. forces and said the UAVs could be fitted with conventional or CBW warheads. SENTENCE DELETED The third report indicated DELETED Iraq's UAVs were designed to be fitted with CBW, "if necessary." SENTENCE DELETED
footnotes
28 ( ) PARAGRAPH DELETED
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