K. Intelligence Agencies' Analysis of Iraq's Biological Weapons Program Prior to Publication of the NIE
(U) Analysis from individual intelligence agencies on Iraq's biological weapons program was consistent between agencies and largely consistent with the NIE and other IC products discussed earlier in this report. The following are examples of assessments from the DIA and the CIA. INR told the Committee that it did not publish any specific intelligence papers on Iraq's BW program.
(U) In October 1997, the DIA published a Defense Intelligence Assessment, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs: Progress, Problems, and Potential Vulnerabilities which stated that "Iraq may have successfully concealed some biological agents. It retains much of its biotechnical infrastructure and is positioned to weaponize biological warfare (BW) agents at pre-Gulf War levels in 2 years or less after sanctions are lifted." The paper noted that Iraq's ". . . dual use type facilities give Iraq the capability to produce biological agents and plausible deniability of a biological weapons program," but "no active BW facilities are currently identified . . . ."
(U) In January 2002, the DIA published a Defense Intelligence Assessment, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction and Theater Ballistic Missile Programs: Post-11 September, which stated "Some aspects of Iraq's biological warfare (BW) program are active, and most elements are probably larger and more advanced than they were in the pre-Gulf War program. Iraq is capable of producing and weaponizing a moderate spectrum of BW agents for a moderate range of delivery systems. UN sanctions imposed after the Gulf War did little to prevent Saddam from equipping and operating the program." The paper also notes "Iraq has gone to great lengths to conceal its BW production, reportedly using mobile trailers" and that "several BW-associated facilities have recently undergone renovation and construction. These facilities may have provided additional capabilities and support to the BW infrastructure."
( ) DIA published a Defense Contingency Product, Iraq - Key WMD Facilities An Operational Support Study in September 2002 which said, referring to bulk biological agent-filled munitions that Iraq claimed to have destroyed in 1991, ". . . Iraq never provided credible evidence to support this claim. The location, nature, and condition of this [BW] stockpile, and the seed stocks and growth media for biological agent production are unknown." The paper stated that DELETED. The paper also noted that "Iraq is assessed to possess biological agent stockpiles that may be weaponized and ready for use. The size of those stockpiles is uncertain and is subject to debate. The nature, size and condition of those stockpiles are also unknown."
(U) A September 2002 DIA Information Paper with the subject line, Iraqi Interest in Smallpox as a Biological Warfare (BW) Agent, states that the "DIA assesses it is possible that Iraq possesses samples of the smallpox virus. However, whether Iraq is actually producing smallpox agent in quantities or where it could be produced is unknown."
(U) The CIA published a paper in August 1996 titled Iraq's Remaining WMD Capabilities, stated "Baghdad has provided no compelling evidence to buttress its claim that all its BW agents and munitions were destroyed in the spring of 1991. Even if Iraq's claims were true, its BW expertise could enable it to rapidly resurrect a small-scale BW program."
(U) In October 2002, CIA published a paper titled Saddam's Timelines for Using WMD, which stated that "Based on Iraqi declarations and a variety of intelligence reporting, we judge Iraq has some lethal and incapacitating biological agents and is currently using fixed facilities to quickly produce and weaponize a variety of such agents, including Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), botulinum toxin, alflatoxin, Clostridium perfringens (gas gangrene), and ricin toxin. Iraq could also use its mobile facilities to produce some bacterial agents."
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