J. Explaining Uncertainties
(U) The NIE provided a "tone box" that listed the IC's "confidence levels for selected key judgments in this estimate." The NIE's key judgments are broken down into three categories of high, moderate and low confidence. Assessments related to Iraq's BW capabilities listed under the "High Confidence" heading are:
- "Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions."
- "We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs."
- "Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles."
(U) There were no assessments of Iraq's BW capabilities listed under the "Moderate Confidence" or "Low Confidence" headings. Nowhere in this section, or anywhere else in the NIE, is the possibility explicitly raised that the majority or all of the dual-use biotechnology issues discussed in the NIE's BW section could represent legitimate public health activity.
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