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A. Background

(U) Prior to the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, the Intelligence Community (IC) prepared several Community papers on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and, more specifically, Iraq's nuclear weapons program. In October 1998, the IC published a National Intelligence Council (NIC) Memorandum, Current Iraqi WMD Capabilities. In December 2000, the IC published an Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), Iraq: Steadily Pursuing WMD Capabilities (ICA 2000-007HCX). The assessment was prepared at the request of the National Security Council (NSC) for a broad update on Iraqi efforts to rebuild WMD and delivery system programs in the absence of weapons inspectors, as well as a review of what remains of the WMD arsenal and outstanding disarmament issues that were the focus of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM).

(U) On Iraq's nuclear program, the IC also produced a Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (JAEIC) report in October 1997, Reconstitution of Iraq's Nuclear Weapons Program: An Update (JAEIC 97-004) and a JAEIC report in June 1999, Reconstitution of Iraq's Nuclear Weapons Program: Post Desert Fox (JAEIC 99-003.)

(U) All of the assessments in these Community papers on Iraq's nuclear program were consistent in assessing that:

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and UNSCOM had destroyed portions of, and neutralized the remainder of Iraq's nuclear infrastructure but that Iraq retained the foundation for future nuclear reconstitution.

• Iraq continued low-level clandestine theoretical research and training of personnel, and was attempting to procure dual-use technologies and materials that could be used to reconstitute its nuclear program.

• If Iraq acquired a significant quantity of fissile material through foreign assistance, it could have a crude nuclear weapon within a year.

• It would take five to seven years for Iraq - with foreign assistance - to produce enough weapons-grade fissile material for a nuclear weapon.

• Iraq did not appear to have reconstituted its nuclear weapons program.

(U) In December 2001, the IC produced an National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015. In the Iraq section of the NIE, the IC noted, "Recent Iraqi procurements, however, suggest possible preparation for a renewed uranium enrichment program." Possible preparations for a renewed uranium enrichment program represented a slight shift in the IC's assessment, but the assessment remained consistent with previous IC position that "Iraq did not appear to have reconstituted its nuclear weapons program." This judgment did not change until the 2002 NIE on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction, when, for the first time, the IC assessed that "Baghdad began reconstituting its nuclear program shortly after the departure of UNSCOM inspectors in December 1998." Viewing this as a possibly significant shift, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence staff focused their work on the analysis of Iraq's nuclear program in the 2002 NIE and the analysis from individual agencies leading up to that judgment in the period following the 2000 ICA.