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D. Explaining Uncertainties

(U) The NIE provided a "tone box" that listed the IC's "confidence levels for selected key judgements in this estimate." The NIE's key judgements were broken down into three categories of high, moderate and low confidence. Assessments related to Iraq's nuclear capabilities listed under the "High Confidence" heading were:

• "Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions."

• "We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs."

(U) The only key judgment noted under the "Moderate Confidence" heading related to Iraq's nuclear capabilities said:

• "Iraq does not have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 to 2009. (See INR alternative view, page 84)"

(U) There were no assessments of Iraq's nuclear capabilities listed under the "Low Confidence" heading.