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C. Agency Level Papers and Current Intelligence Products

(U) Analysts produced hundreds of documents on the Iraqi threat to regional stability and security both at the agency level and at the IC's inter-agency level. The key agency level producers of analysis used for this review were the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR).

(  ) Based on the documents provided to the Committee by the IC, analysis of Iraq's threat to regional stability and security at the individual agency level did not show signs of disagreement among analysts about the extent of Saddam Hussein's threat after 1991. The analysis at different agencies, such as the CIA and the DIA, was based heavily on monitoring of the actions and the composition of Iraq's conventional forces.                      SENTENCE DELETED                     ⁵⁹ When Iraqi forces deployed from their barracks, they were monitored. When they exchanged artillery fire with Iranian forces or fired anti-aircraft missiles at Coalition aircraft in the No-Fly Zones, the IC was able to monitor what happened. The CIA and the DIA's Defense HUMINT Service also received HUMINT reporting that corroborated or added to intelligence monitoring by technical means.

(U) From 1991 through 2003, the majority of all analysis that was concentrated on the Iraqi threat was either in the category of agency level analysis documents or in the category of shorter Defense Department current intelligence reports, which typically focused on breaking events. Overall, there was a significant amount of overlap in the topics that IC agencies analyzed. For example:

(U) The CIA often focused on WMD and the evolving political-military situation inside Iraq and in the region;

(U) The DIA often focused on WMD, military capabilities and breaking events, such as violations of the no-fly zones or events related to the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Shia in the south; and,

(U) The INR often focused on the evolving political-military situation and its impact on decision making, for example in resisting (United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspections and in relations with other regional states.

footnotes

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