• Military
• WMD

• Intelligence Menu               

• Systems
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Imagery
• Links

• Homeland Security
• Space

B. IC Analysis on the Iraqi Threat

(U) Assessing the threat level from Iraq was a problem for the IC in the years after 1991. Analysts were certain that Saddam was capable of threatening and destabilizing the region, as he had done when he attacked Iran and invaded Kuwait. They also believed he retained components of his WMD programs. For example, he used chemical weapons against Iran and the Kurds in the late 1980s, and he fired Scuds toward his neighbors when he invaded Kuwait. After 1991, though, analysts believed that Iraq's conventional forces were less capable in all readiness categories-to include logistics, manning and training.⁵⁸

(U) The Committee reviewed approximately 400 analytical documents - spanning 1991 until early 2003 - which focused on various dimensions of Iraq's conventional military threat to the region. There was no controversy among IC analysts concerning the degraded status of Iraq's military forces, concerning the facts surrounding Iraqi actions against internal opposition groups, nor concerning the Iraqi regime's resistance to no-fly/no-drive zone restrictions.

(U) Taken as a complete body of documents, the IC showed that by 2003 it had thoroughly assessed Iraq as a conventional threat to regional stability and security. For example, the IC produced analyses that concentrated on Saddam's efforts to reestablish control of his military and on his steps to stabilize Iraq's internal security environment. Analysts also focused on lingering Iraqi threats to Kuwait, Saddam Hussein's efforts to undermine UN sanctions, his aggression toward the Kurds, and interactions with Iran, Turkey and other neighbors.

(  ) Analysis of the Iraqi threat was strongest in the areas of conventional military capabilities (also known as "order of battle") and Iraq's military or security actions inside the country. Both of these issues were measurable, that is susceptible to technical collection methods                                                                                                                           On the other hand, the IC was not confident about its analysis concerning Saddam's intentions for use of force or about the possible intentions of regional governments in their relations with Iraq. Both of these areas relied heavily on HUMINT, which the IC claimed was not reliable enough or sufficient in quantity for accurate assessments. Over this 12-year period, analysts made a clear distinction between military capabilities and regime intentions. This distinction will be highlighted in the Committee's review of analysis documents later in this section.

footnotes

⁵⁸ (U) The size and operational capabilities of Iraq's conventional military forces sharply declined after the 1991 defeat, and this trend continued all the way through 2002. Still, by 2003 Iraq's conventional forces were the largest in the region.