Pulhwasal-3 Cruise Missile [GLCM]
North Korea conducted a successful submarine launch test of a pair of Pulhwasal-3-31 cruise missiles, the Korean Central Telegraphic Agency (KCNA) reported 28 January 2024. "The cruise missiles travelled for 7,421 and 7,445 seconds [about two hours]... and accurately hit the target on the island," the agency wrote. According to the KCNA, the test launch had no impact on the security of surrounding countries. South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that the DPRK had launched several cruise missiles towards the Sea of Japan.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressed great satisfaction with the result of the test. Kim Jong-un reportedly supervised the test of its newly developed submarine-launched cruise missile and inspected the construction of a nuclear submarine. The state-run Korean Central News Agency(KCNA) said on Monday that Kim guided the test launch of the missile dubbed the “Pulhwasal-3-31,” the same strategic cruise missile the regime first test-fired 25 January 2024. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles at around 8 a.m. in waters off the port city of Sinpo in South Hamgyong Province, where the North’s submarine facilities are located.
North Korea said 25 January 2024 it conducted its first test of a "new-generation" cruise missile, as it continues to expand its military capabilities. The official Korean Central News described the missile as “strategic”, implying an intent to arm it with nuclear weapons.
The state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said that Pyongyang tested “Pulhwasal-3-31” [meaning “flaming arrow”] the day before. KCNA reported that the Pulhwasal-3-31 missile was still in its development phase. It was described as a strategic cruise missile, implying it could be armed with nuclear weapons. “The test-fire had no impact on the security of neighboring countries and has nothing to do with the regional situation,” KCNA said as it did not specify how many missiles were fired. The Pulhwasal-3-31 missile is still in its development phase and was also part of the process of updating the country's weapon system, KCNA reported, citing the missile administration. The test-fire is a process of constant updating of DPRK's weapon system and a regular and obligatory activity of the Missile Administration and its affiliated defence science institutes, KCNA added.
“The range was not short, and it was presumed to have been launched from the ground,” South Korea's Yonhap news agency, citing an unidentified source, reported, speculating that the cruise missiles were likely type Hwasal-1 or Hwasal-2, which are capable of carrying the North's compact Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead. Lee Sung-joon, spokesperson of South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the missiles flew a shorter distance than previous North Korean cruise missile launches, which he said suggested that the North was trying to improve the performance of existing systems.
The report, citing the Missile Administration, said the test was part of a process to update the country's weapons systems. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it believed the launch was intended to test upgrades to existing missile capabilities. Chosun News Agency quoted experts who said that Full Arrow 3-31 is likely to be a short-range missile, and said that the photo posted by North Korean Central News Agency shows that the overall length of the device is shorter than that of past Hwasal-type cruise missiles.
The announcement came a day after South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it had detected the launch of “several” cruise missiles from North Korea’s western coast. It didn’t immediately provide more details about the number of missiles fired or their flight characteristics. Seoul's defense minister, Shin Won-Sik, condemned the launches as a serious threat to his country. The JCS said it was analyzing the launch, as it believed the firing was to test upgrades of existing missiles' capabilities. This came as South Korea is conducting a 10-day special forces infiltration drill off its east coast, in preparation as tensions continue rising. "We will achieve our mission to infiltrate deep into the enemy's territory and neutralize them completely under any circumstances," the drill chief said.
The incident was the first time North Korea launched a cruise missile since it test-launched 1,500 long-range strategic cruise missiles toward the West Sea in September 2023. At the time, North Korea said the missile was flying on a trajectory of 200 km. Last year, North Korea also tested the Arrow 1 and Arrow 2 cruise missiles, which are believed to be capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.
This device test launch took place not long after North Korea launched a solid-fuel hypersonic missile into the East Sea, and is also North Korea's first missile launch in 2024. Last week, North Korea announced that it had tested an underwater nuclear attack drone to protest recent joint military exercises between South Korea, the United States and Japan.
Immediately after North Korea's test launch of the device, a U.S. State Department spokesperson urged North Korea to refrain from actions that would escalate tensions and return to the dialogue table. This message was also repeated by U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel at a press conference.
“It is important to remember that we have made it clear that we have no hostile intentions toward North Korea, and that we continue to open the path to diplomacy without preconditions... “We discuss with other allies and partners how best to work together to deter North Korea’s provocative and potentially destabilizing actions.” – said Mr. Patel.
At a press conference that day, the U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson also confirmed the United States' willingness to participate in substantive discussions to determine military risk management measures and establish a foundation for military risk management. Goal of complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea's cruise missiles generally receive less attention than ballistic missiles because they are not explicitly banned by UN Security Council resolutions. But analysts say intermediate-range land-attack cruise missiles are not as dangerous as ballistic missiles and are an important capability for North Korea. Cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles, which can be armed with conventional or nuclear bombs, appear to be particularly unstable in the event of conflict because it is unclear what type of warhead they carry.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff evaluated the launch on the 25th as a test launch to improve the performance of existing cruise missiles, considering that North Korea's cruise missiles had a shorter flight distance compared to those launched in the past. A military official said, “North Korea claimed that this was the first test of a new weapon, so it appears that they were testing something. During the test by installing a model of the same weight as a nuclear warhead, the flight distance may have been shorter than before.”
North Korea's State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un's recent claim that "in case of emergency, we will mobilize nuclear force to pacify the entire territory of South Korea" is interpreted as a threat that is not just empty words, but also a show of force intended to heighten tensions ahead of the general election.
North Korea did not disclose details such as launch location, flight distance, time, and altitude of the new cruise missile. This is in contrast to the detailed announcement of flight time, distance, and landing point in seconds when launching existing cruise missiles (Arrow-1 and 2 types). A military official said, “The intention is to hide the performance of the new missile,” and added, “It is presumed to be an improved version of the Arrow-1 and 2 types.”
In the photo published in North Korea's Rodong Sinmun, 'Fire Arrow-3-31' seemed slightly shorter than Arrow-1 and Type 2, but its diameter seemed larger, but probably these differences are simply an artifact of perspective. The front part (warhead) also looks more blocky. Lee Chun-geun, an honorary research fellow at the Science and Technology Policy Institute, analyzed, “It is possible that the engines (of Arrow-1 and 2) were improved.” Equipping an engine with greater thrust can increase payload and enable more stable flight. It is highly likely that the blunter warhead is a 'design improvement' to install tactical nuclear weapons more stably.
It is said that North Korea may have been equipped with a model of similar weight to the nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31' during this cruise missile launch test. It is said that the flight distance of this missile was considerably shorter compared to the 1,500 km of Arrow-2. However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff declined to comment, saying, “The South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are analyzing whether it is equipped with a nuclear weapon or whether it is a (detonation) test.”
There is analysis that the name 'Bully Arrow-3-31' also suggests that it is equipped with tactical nuclear weapons. This means that Chairman Kim was suggesting that the tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31' unveiled in March of last year or a smaller nuclear warhead could be mounted. A military official said, “This is interpreted to mean that it can be aimed at Korea by carrying a more powerful and sophisticated tactical nuclear weapon than the existing ‘Arrow-1 and 2’.” North Korea's Missile General Directorate claimed that this test is a process of constant renewal of the weapon system and is a regular and mandatory activity of the General Directorate and its affiliated Defense Research Institute. Additional test launches were also announced in the future. A military source said, “Active movement of personnel and equipment is continuously being detected at facilities related to cruise missile production.”
Experts interpreted North Korea's indications of weapon specifications such as 'Fire Arrow-3-31' and 'Tsunami-5-23' as a policy of putting pressure on South Korea. The 'Fire Arrow-3' launched this time is not much different in appearance from the Arrow-1 and 2 launched in the past, and the 'Tsunami-5', which was claimed to be test-launched on the 19th, is also compared to the existing 'Tsunami-2'. There was no meaningful technological progress. Shin Jong-woo, secretary general of the National Defense and Security Forum, said, “They are making threat propaganda as if they have developed a new weapon with a complex and new name,” and added, “The intention is to make people think imaginatively as if it could be equipped with a tactical nuclear warhead, Hwasan-31.”
Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, “They are calling Arrow-2 Fire Arrow-3 and Tsunami-2 Tsunami-5, and are using pressure tactics against South Korea to the effect that they are diligently developing new weapons and preparing for war.” “It is highly likely that it is a numbers joke at the level of changing the model year of a car,” he said.
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