References

"In wartime, truth is so precious that
she should always be attended by
a bodyguard of lies."
Winston Churchill

DPRK New Missiles - 15 April 2017

On 15 April 2015 North Korea held its big military parade to mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of regime founder Kim Il Sung. The regime showed off several new missile designs. Halfway through the two-and-a-half hour military parade that took place in Pyongyang on Saturday, North Korea showed off its next-generation military hardware. One commentator said "This is the first time North Korea has ever displayed such a range of their missile arsenal. We can see from today that North Korea's missile technology has advanced far more than we had previously thought."

This is North Korea, so the fact that a "missile" is on display does not necessarily mean they are operational, or even that that they are in development. One observer suggested "I'm also sure that the missiles are not ready yet, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that North Korea is now developing ICBM's. It might take a little more time than they want to, but there is no show of just models to deceive anyone." But this is silly. During the 1960s, the Soviets were quite fond a dragging their rockets [aka "Rattling Their Rockets"] through Red Square. It turned out that possibly half of the displayed rockets were not what the West believed them to be. Frequently, the Soviets displayed prototypes that had lost competitions, while hiding the winning design that had entered production.

The North Koran's paraded far many more missile designs than can practically be produced in meaningful numbers. At least three variants of the Hwasong-13 have been glimpsed, but there is no reason to believe that more than one would enter production.

The North for the first time publicly showcased its submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), as well as what appeared to be a new type of ICBM. "It's presumed to be a new ICBM. It seems longer than the existing KN-08 or KN-14 ICBMs," a South Korean military official told Yonhap, after the intercontinental ballistic missiles along with the Pukkuksong-2 SLBMs were paraded in front of the country's leader, Kim Jong-un. Many of these "missile" were most likely simulators used for training purposes, and some may be fakes.

The North Korean People’s Army publicly displayed for the first time its new long-range road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles during the military parade in Pyongyang on 15 April. The missile of the new road-mobile intercontinental systems is carried in a large canister that completely enclosed the missile mounted on an eight wheels trailer. There is no precise information about this missile system. “It’s presumed this is a mock-up new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The new ICBM looks like a Chinese DF-31.“, said South Korean military officials.

Hwasong-? - Transporter

This vehicle has not been previously seen, and was only poorly seen on the Day of the Sun in 2017. The tractor-trailer rig is new for the DPRK, but is generally similar to such rigs seen in Iran [Shahab-3, Shahab-3B], and Pakistan [Ghauri], with three wheels on the tractor, and two, three and four wheels on the trailer. The TEL arrangement of four wheels on the rear carriage resembles the Chinese DF-31A ICBM transporter, but the "missile" itself is of much smaller diameter, and the three wheel arrangement of the tractor in front [versus 4 wheels on the DF-31A], both support an interpretation of a missile smaller than the DF-31. The launch canister is generally consistent is size with the KN-14.

The simplest interpretation of this vehicles, assuming that it represents an operational capability rather than a fake parade missile, is that it is a transporter for the KN-14 LRICBM for emplacement of that missile into a launch silo.

Minuteman Transporter/Erector Loader (TEL)

KN-08 Hwasong-13B

Rather longer than the previously displayed Hwasong-13, the actual missile is mounted on the TEL, with a pointed conical nose cone, versus the rounded nose of the more refined successor.

Hwasong-12

The No-Dong-B 6-wheel TEL with the Hwasong-12 missile, which is much longer than the No-Dong-B missile. Strangely, the wheels of the TEL are protected by armored shield of some sort, which might protect the wheels from being shot at if the TEL was engaged in close combat in urban operations of some sort, but absent this improbably circumstance, at first glance seemed to be non-functional decoration. Upon reflection, possibly it is the Small ICBM Hard Mobile Launcher (HML), with North Korean characteristics.

The Boeing Small ICBM Hard Mobile Launcher (HML) was a mobile, radiation-hardened, vehicle designed to transport and launch the MGM-134A Small Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, unofficially called the "Midgetman" missile. The entire vehicle was over 110 feet long and weighed over 239,000 pounds when fully loaded, yet it could travel on paved roads at up to 55 miles per hour. The HML could also travel off-road. It could withstand moderate nuclear effects and the trailer-mounted plow allowed the tractor to bury the launcher-trailer into the ground for additional protection from nuclear blasts.

The survivability of the Hard Mobile Launcher system was a function of launcher hardness and mobility. Each launcher was "hardened" to withstand high levels of blast pressure and radiation. The mobility of the launchers allowed them to rapidly access a large area, providing launcher location uncertainty.

The two effects that were of the greatest concern to the HML were static overpressure and dynamic pressure. Static overpressure is a dramatic increase in atmospheric pressure that could crush the HML. Dynamic pressure refers to the blast winds that could blow the HML over, preventing it from launching. The vehicle must be designed so it will not be overturned by lateral blasts, but weight must also be kept to a minimum to facilitate mobility and minimize cost.

During peacetime, all launchers were to be parked "on alert" in austere shelters, except for periodic training and maintenance. These shelters provide limited crew comfort and environmental protection for the launcher. Under "attack dispersal" the launcher would be deployed off site. Because each launcher could dash within a large area, the system complicated the enemy's targeting task.