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Chinese balloons being used to 'maintain pressure' on Taiwan: Analyst

ROC Central News Agency

01/07/2024 05:40 PM

Taipei, Jan. 7 (CNA) The Chinese balloons recently detected floating over Taiwan are likely intended to "maintain pressure" on Taipei without unduly escalating tensions, a Taiwanese scholar said Sunday.

The balloons, which have been spotted over the Taiwan Strait since early December, only began floating across Taiwan earlier this month, according to the Ministry of National Defense (MND).

The MND on Saturday said its analyses had concluded that the main purpose of the several balloons detected was to "harass and rattle people in Taiwan" ahead of the country's Jan. 13 elections.

In an interview on the subject Sunday, however, Lin Yin-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, said there is "no direct correlation" between the balloons and election interference.

Rather, the balloons are likely being released as an alternative to more large-scale moves to "harass Taiwan," such as incursions by Chinese warplanes or military vessels, Lin said.

Relative to those things, balloon float-overs are unlikely to provoke a major response, while still allowing China to maintain a certain pressure on Taiwan, Lin said.

"This type of pressure will not unduly escalate tensions, generate public antipathy, or constitute actual election interference," which is probably one of China's main strategic considerations for doing it, he said.

At the same time, Lin noted that the balloons were unlikely to have any tangible military benefits for China, and that Taiwan apparently did not plan to shoot them down.

For this reason, the balloons could have a cognitive warfare-related purpose, insofar as they could be used in Chinese public opinion to show that "Taiwan's military and government are unable to mount an effective response," Lin said.

Meanwhile, China's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) did not directly deny Beijing's involvement in the balloons in a statement it issued on Jan. 4, which instead argued that it was a nonissue, since "the Mainland and Taiwan are both part of one China."

The TAO went on to accuse Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party of using the issue for electoral purposes to hype the "Mainland threat" and "stir up cross-strait resentment."

(By Lu Chia-jung and Matthew Mazzetta)

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