As presidential race kicks off, China policy takes center stage
ROC Central News Agency
06/03/2023 11:03 AM
By Teng Pei-ju, CNA staff reporter
The presidential race has kicked off after the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) officially selected New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) as its candidate on May 17.
The 65-year-old mayor is facing Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee, and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) in a race in which China is likely to play a central role.
Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠), a political science professor at Tunghai University, said Hou could be hamstrung in his pursuit of the presidency by his lack of experience in handling cross-strait and international affairs.
Hou's political experience is largely domestic, having served in the police force for years and then serving in the New Taipei government as deputy mayor and mayor, and he has never acquainted himself with cross-strait or international affairs, Shen told CNA.
In addition, Hou's personal links with Chinese officials are limited compared to those of KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), who met with China's leader Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing in 2015, political science professor Liao Da-chi (廖達琪) observed.
Nevertheless, Liao, who currently teaches at National Sun Yat-sen University, took note of Hou's recent pledges to reject both Taiwan independence and the "one country, two systems" formula for Taiwan proposed by Beijing.
In the months leading up to the January 2024 vote, Hou is likely to characterize the presidential election as "a vote for either peace or war" and that his victory would guarantee the former, Liao said.
At the same time, the opposition might also paint the DPP's Lai, who has on more than one occasion described himself as a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker," as a candidate who would bring Taiwan closer to conflict with China.
China, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary, has said any attempt by Taiwan to seek formal independence "means war."
Shen said Hou's camp is pressuring Lai to make clear his position on Taiwan independence, something Lai has tried to "downplay" in recent years.
Lai, a doctor-turned politician who has served as a legislator, Tainan mayor, and premier over the past two decades, was selected by the DPP as its presidential candidate in April.
The 63-year-old vice president has sought to dispel doubts about his past pro-independence remarks by saying Taiwan is already an independent sovereign country, meaning there is no need to push for de-jure independence.
He has also pledged to continue President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) cross-strait policy if elected president in 2024, which has focused on asserting Taiwan's sovereignty internationally and rallying global support to counter Beijing's potential threat.
It may be hard, however, for Lai to change the image people have had of him, because "the public still views you based on what you've done over the years," Liao said.
As the KMT tries to draw attention to Lai's pro-independence past, Lai's camp has been pushing Hou to comment on the "1992 Consensus."
According to the KMT, the "1992 Consensus" refers to a tacit understanding that both sides of the Taiwan Strait recognize there is only "one China," with each having its own interpretation of what China means.
Beijing has never publicly recognized nor denied the second part of the KMT interpretation, but it has made acceptance of the "1992 Consensus" a prerequisite for dialogue across the Taiwan Strait.
The DPP rejects the "1992 Consensus," arguing that agreeing to it implies acceptance of China's claim over Taiwan, and it has also drawn a parallel between the "1992 Consensus" and Beijing's "one country, two systems" formula for Taiwan.
That has led to a virtual freeze in cross-strait ties since 2016, when Tsai took office, after the "1992 Consensus" underpinned warmer ties between Taiwan and China during the KMT administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) from 2008 to 2016.
But Hou has never publicly endorsed it and has continued to sidestep media questions on the topic.
Shen felt Hou was unlikely to embrace the 1992 Consensus given that the mainstream of Taiwanese society no longer "buys into" it.
A poll conducted in June 2022 by the KMT's think tank, the National Policy Foundation, found that 37 percent of respondents opposed the idea of engaging in dialogue with China using the "1992 Consensus," versus 26 percent supporting it.
Another 37 percent of respondents either did not know or refused to answer.
Similarly, Ko has avoided endorsing the "1992 Consensus," Shen said.
While Ko has not openly rejected it, he did urge Beijing while in the United States in April not to insist upon it as a prerequisite for engaging in dialogue with a Taiwanese leader.
The 63-year-old founder and chairman of the TPP -- a political party Ko established four years ago -- has boasted that he is more capable of handling Taiwan's relations with China and with the United States than his two opponents.
Ko has also sought to position himself as between Lai and Hou on cross-strait policy.
He has criticized the KMT as being "too submissive" in the face of an increasingly assertive Beijing while denouncing the DPP as taking a hard line on China.
Yet, while Ko had touted his so-called "pragmatic" approach to deal with China and to engage in dialogue with Beijing, there is a real question mark over whether it has any substance or whether it can patch up cross-strait ties, Shen said.
A recent example of this was when TPP Legislator Lai Hsiang-ling's (賴香伶) permit for traveling to China was invalidated by Beijing in early May just two weeks after Ko wrapped up a weeks-long U.S. trip, Shen said.
The incident, Shen said, should send a "warning" to Ko, who said during his U.S trip that Washington "remains the most important ally" and the biggest security partner for Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Liao noted that Ko rose to prominence in politics after defeating the KMT's candidate in the Taipei mayoral election in 2014 with the support of the DPP, but over the past few years, he had gradually moved toward the opposite side of the political spectrum.
Ko has more than once conveyed the idea that "the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of one family," a phrase often used by Beijing to emphasize the cultural affinity between Taiwanese and Chinese, Liao said.
Yet when he was running for Taipei mayor in 2014, Liao said, Ko referred to himself as a "deep green" politician, a term used to describe die-hard DPP supporters who usually hold pro-independence stances.
This U-turn could hurt him except among younger voters who do not care about the past, Liao said, wondering if the TPP candidate's cross-strait policy would appeal to enough voters next January.
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