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Cross-strait relations to remain at impasse until after 2024 election

ROC Central News Agency

11/01/2022 09:13 PM

Taipei, Nov. 1 (CNA) The political stalemate between Taipei and Beijing is expected to continue until at least 2024 when Taiwan will elect a new president and legislature, local scholars said Tuesday.

There is little chance of an improvement in cross-strait relations before the presidential and legislative elections in 2024, Ma Chun-wei (馬準威), an assistant professor at Tamkang University, told a forum hosted by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Since President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) of the DPP came to office in 2016, Beijing has cut off communications with Taipei and suspended nearly all official exchanges between the two sides because Tsai refused to accept the so-called "1992 consensus."

Under the consensus, a tacit understanding reached in 1992 between the then-Kuomintang (KMT) government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Chinese government, both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge that there is only "one China," with each side free to interpret what "China" means, according to the KMT.

However, Beijing has never publicly recognized the second part of the KMT's interpretation, even as Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) identified the consensus as a precondition for positive cross-strait relations.

Considering the "consensus" tantamount to recognition of Beijing's "one China" principle, the DPP administration continues to reject it.

Over the past six years, neither Tsai nor Xi has budged from their respective position regarding cross-strait relations, Ma told the forum.

"Given that, it is unlikely we will see any breakthrough during the last two years of Tsai's presidency," Ma told the forum held to discuss the outlook for cross-strait relations after the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress.

If the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan ushers in a KMT administration, both sides of the Taiwan Strait could take steps towards rapprochement, but China could also attempt to coerce Taiwan into political negotiations on its terms, Ma said.

Should the DPP retain power and embrace a more radical policy towards China, the possibility of an invasion will increase, he said.

Chen Fang-yu (陳方隅), an assistant professor at Soochow University, declined to say whether he thought China would seize Taiwan by force during Xi's third term as Chinese president, saying that "decision-making by an autocrat goes beyond understanding."

However, having cemented his grip over China with "virtually unchecked power," Xi is most likely to ratchet up what has come to be known as "'wolf-warrior' diplomacy" in an effort to pressure Taiwan, he added.

(By Yeh Su-ping and Shih Hsiu-chuan)

Enditem/AW