China unlikely to realize unification with Taiwan in 5 years: Analysis

ROC Central News Agency

10/17/2022 06:36 PM

Taipei, Oct. 17 (CNA) Although Beijing is looking to make progress toward its goal of reunification with Taiwan, it is unlikely to complete "peaceful unification" or "forceful unification" in the next five years, a scholar said Sunday in the wake of a major speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping's (ç¿’è¿‘å¹³) early that day.

Xi outlined his vision for the country over the next five years during a two-hour speech at the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).

The part of Xi's report delivered to the congress on Taiwan highlighted China's strong opposition to Taiwan's independence and the interference of external forces, the two conditions considered precursors for China to employ non-peaceful means to achieve unification, said Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), an associate professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of China Studies.

The 19th CPC National Congress congress report in 2017 did not touch on external forces but following the trade war between the United States and China which began in 2018, this year's report issued a fresh warning over external interference, Chang noted.

The report also signaled that the CPC's Taiwan policy is guided by its overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, seeking to resolve the question by linking it with the strategy of national development and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, Chang said.

It also showed that the CPC considers the resolution of the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland as a historical task and necessary to facilitate China's national rejuvenation, he added.

Based on the content of the report and the subjective and objective circumstances, Beijing is unlikely to accomplish peaceful unification over the next five years given that it has not yet put forward a mechanism for democratic negotiations and not formulated a "one country, two systems" model related to Taiwan, according to Chang.

At a seminar held by National Chengchi University and National Taiwan University (NTU) Monday, Chang also said that although the Taiwan section in Xi's report contained fewer than 600 words, the least since the 16th party congress report in 2002, the statement was the most powerful.

Chang predicted that China will strengthen its military training and preparations to prevent Taiwan's independence and thwart interference by external powers, while forcing Taiwan to the negotiating table.

Ming Chu-cheng (明居正), a professor emeritus of political science at NTU, said at a separate seminar held by the Institute for National Policy Research Monday that the administrative achievements Xi boasted about in the report do not stand up to scrutiny.

China's claims on its zero-COVID policy, poverty alleviation achievements and measures to tackle unemployment are refuted by the figures, according to Ming.

On foreign policy, China has been promoting its new type of international relations and the Belt and Road Initiative, but in fact, its foreign relations have worsened, Ming noted.

(By Lu Chia-jung, Wu Po-wei and Evelyn Kao)

Enditem/AW