U.S. analysts split on Pelosi's rumored Taiwan trip
ROC Central News Agency
07/30/2022 08:41 PM
Taipei, July 30 (CNA) U.S.-based analysts have provided a mixed response to House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's rumored trip to Taiwan, with some warning it could spark a direct military confrontation with Beijing.
Pelosi is set to embark on a tour of Asia this weekend, with several media outlets reporting that this will include a "tentative" visit to Taiwan, alongside stops in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore.
While Pelosi refused to confirm her reported travel plans, the 82-year-old Democratic lawmaker told a press conference Friday that "I'm very excited, should we go, to the countries that you'll be hearing about along the way," while underscoring the importance of the U.S. partnership with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, in a New York Times op-ed published Thursday, Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund, and Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said that a Taiwan stopover could "provoke a forceful Chinese response" and turn the situation in the Taiwan Strait into "a crisis that escalates to military conflict."
Beijing has already threatened to take "resolute and strong measures" should Pelosi visit Taiwan, and Glaser and Cooper warned this could take the form of "challenging Ms. Pelosi's plane or flying military aircraft directly over Taiwan for the first time."
Yet others, such as Ian Easton, have downplayed the seriousness of China's saber-rattling. The Project 2049 Institute senior director told Voice of American Friday that Pelosi was unlikely to back down in the face of "clear coercion and intimidation" from Beijing.
Raymond Kuo (郭泓均), a political specialist at the RAND Corporation, similarly observed that it was unlikely that a Taiwan trip made by Pelosi would trigger military conflict between the U.S. and China, and that Beijing's strong reaction was a form of posturing.
Pelosi had reportedly made plans to visit Taiwan in early April as part of a wider trip to Asia, which was canceled after the speaker tested positive for COVID-19.
Shortly after the Financial Times reported on July 18 that Pelosi was planning to visit Taiwan in August as a show of support for Taipei, U.S. President Joe Biden said that the country's military had suggested it was "not a good idea right now."
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese authorities have been coy about Pelosi's rumored trip, with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) having released only one statement on the issue since mid-July.
In a July 19 release, MOFA said it had not received any information about a planned visit to Taiwan by Pelosi, who sits second in the presidential line of succession.
Should the rumored trip go ahead, Pelosi will be the first sitting U.S. House speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997, when her predecessor, Republican Newt Gingrich, traveled to Taipei and met with then-President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝).
Meanwhile, China's Maritime Safety Administration announced in a social media post on Friday that live-fire military exercises would be held Saturday in waters near Fujian Province's Pingtan County.
Pingtan, located about 126 kilometers from Hsinchu County, is the nearest county in China to the island of Taiwan.
The administration added that all civilian vessels would be barred from entering the area during the exercise from 8 a.m to 9 p.m. Saturday.
According to the Hong Kong-based newspaper Ta Kung Pao, the Chinese authorities are planning to hold at least five military drills from July 29 to Aug. 2 in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.
(By Ozzy Yin and Teng Pei-ju)
Enditem/ASG
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