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Analysis: Taiwan's Turbulent Straits

Council on Foreign Relations

March 7, 2007
Prepared by: Carin Zissis

Taiwan and China have engaged in a new round of verbal sparring aggravated by Beijing's announcement of increased defense spending and Taipei's latest call for independence. China said it would increase military spending (LAT) by 18 percent, lifting its defense budget to $45 billion. The announcement came less than two months after a controversial anti-satellite test and coincided with a visit by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, who called for greater transparency in China's military spending. Beijing, in turn, raised opposition to Washington's plans to sell some $400 million in weapons to Taiwan. Negroponte countered that the weapons “would be for strictly defensive purposes” (IHT). But the proposed arms deal comes as Taiwan reveals it conducted a February test of a cruise missile capable of hitting mainland China (Stratfor).

It remains unclear if the tensions between Taiwan and China represent anything more than another round of strong rhetoric over Beijing's “one China” policy. The U.S. deal (Defense News) includes 218 air-to-air missiles and 236 Maverick air-to-surface missiles. Beijing opposes the sale of the Maverick missiles, citing concerns Taiwan could use them to arm its F-16 jets. The United States, Taiwan's leading ally, is bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taipei with defensive weapons to maintain a balance of power across the strait, given that China is thought to have about nine hundred missiles pointed at Taiwan. But Washington also ended diplomatic recognition of Taiwan during the Carter administration and has warned Taipei not to push for independence, a position repeated by the State Department on March 5 after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's recent calls for an independent Taiwan.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.