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What Is Happening In Syria?

By Kian Sharifi March 08, 2025

Syria is experiencing its worst outbreak of violence since the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Russia whose family's 50-year rule in Syria ended in December 2024.

Clashes broke out on March 6 in the coastal province of Latakia between Assad loyalists and security forces of Syria's new government, rebel-leader-turned-interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Analysts say the fighting exposes Sharaa's struggle to maintain control in a post-Assad Syria -- to the delight of Iran, Israel, and even Islamic State (IS) extremists.

Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group intelligence consultancy, said what is transpiring in Latakia is "simply an inevitable outcome" in any postconflict setting.

"Syria was enmeshed in a civil war for 13 years. In cases like this, there are almost always revenge killings and violent sectarianism," he said.

The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said on March 8 that it had identified 745 civilians belonging to the Alawite minority killed in the clashes, including in "field executions" by Syrian "security forces and allied groups."

The Observatory said that brought the total death toll in the past three days to 1,018, including 125 security personnel and 148 fighters loyal to the ousted Assad regime.

A curfew has been enforced in Homs, Latakia, and Tartus due to ongoing fighting, and the governor of Latakia has announced that power has been completely cut off in the province.

The official SANA news agency, citing an Interior Ministry source, conceded that "individual violations" had happened and pledged that the government would put an end to them.

In his first remarks on the violence, Sharaa on March 7 said "remnants" of Assad's government "sought to test the new Syria" and vowed to bring them to trial.

He did not address allegations that his forces had killed civilians, but praised the armed forces for "their commitment to protecting and securing civilians."

Did Iran Start The Unrest?

The fighting started about a week after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, whose country is a major backer of Sharaa's rule, warned Iran against moving to challenge the new Syrian government by empowering groups opposed to it.

He warned that it "would not be the right" approach and said doing so may result in "another country doing the same thing to you in return."

Sharaa, who saw Ankara-backed groups join the offensive launched by his US-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) against Assad, has received scores of foreign delegations since seizing power in Damascus but has frozen Iran out in favor of its rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia, as well as Western nations.

Phillip Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies and Shi'ite militias, said there is "a lot of evidence" pointing to Tehran's involvement in the new outbreak of violence.

Iranian figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said after Assad's fall that Syrians would revolt against Sharaa's rule.

Smyth said Tehran "is happy this was set off," especially since it establishes that Iran "can cause massive disruption" despite losing a key ally in Assad.

"Better for Tehran is the fact that HTS militants demonstrated they would engage in human rights abuses. Iran desired an overreaction," he added.

Some observers have also suggested Tehran could look to back the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to challenge not only Sharaa, but also Turkey's growing influence.

Syria, under Assad's rule, played a pivotal role in Iran's strategic land corridor to the Levant. This corridor was crucial for Iran's regional influence, serving as the logistical backbone for its network of state and nonstate actors.

Who Else Stands to Gain From The Unrest?

Since rebels seized power, the new government has faced numerous security challenges.

Elements loyal to Assad, who belongs to the Alawite community, have sporadically attacked the new government's security forces, while IS remains active in various pockets throughout the country.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have expanded territorial control in southern Syria, with reports saying they are positioned about 20 kilometers from the capital. Israel has been targeting military assets and demanding the demilitarization of southern Syria.

"IS is extremely opportunistic and will be biding its time and waiting to strike. Israel will also take advantage of the situation by launching more strikes in the south of Syria," Clarke said.

"Sharaa is indeed struggling with control, but much of this is to be expected," he added.

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/syria-iran-violence-clashes- isis/33340971.html

Copyright (c) 2025. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.