Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=03/15/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=IRAN & RUSSIA

NUMBER=5-49152

BYLINE=ED WARNER

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: This week, Iranian President Mohammed Khatemi is in Moscow to sign a pact of cooperation and an arms deal with the Russians. What he calls "a new spring" in relations between the two countries worries the United States, which fears a Russian intrusion in the Middle East and a dangerous arms build-up in the region. VOA's Ed Warner has this report on what some analysts think of the new cooperation between Iran and Russia.

TEXT: Iranian President Mohammed Khatemi has been on a four-day shopping trip to Moscow, looking for purchases of advanced weaponry for his country, along with continued help constructing a nuclear power plant. Both countries say this is the start of a promising alliance.

In response, U-S Secretary of State Colin Powell warned that both Russia and Iran are jeopardizing their relations with the United States by adding to the volatility of the Middle East. This week, President Bush renewed economic sanctions on Iran.

But analysts say hard-pressed Russia needs the money from arms sale. Rob Sobhani, professor of history at Georgetown University, says Russia also wants to bring Iran into its widening orbit of friendly nations to counter NATO's eastward expansion and what is perceived as U-S hegemony in general.

In addition to seeking weapons, Professor Sobhani says President Khatemi needs to shore up his base with Iran's conservative clerics who are resisting his reforms:

// SOBHANI ACT //

Right before his visit to Moscow, President Khatemi had to consult with, get his marching orders from the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khomenei. This indicates that there is an element of cooperation between the two, but more important a way to appease the conservative elements in Iran on the part of Khatemi.

// END ACT //

Reform has been stymied, says Assad Homayoun, an Iranian opposition leader in Washington. So President Khatemi must find another way to maintain support as June elections approach:

// HOMAYOUN ACT //

The reform he promised to the Iranian people did not take place. Now he is turning to a deal with Russians, probably to prepare the way for the second term of his election. Mr. Khatemi has taken with him two hundred people. They are not specialists. They are not familiar with Russian dealings.

// END ACT //

Mr. Homayoun says some Iranian military leaders question the quality of the available Russian weaponry. And he believes Iran is the loser in the new pact:

// HOMAYOUN ACT //

There is no balance between Iranian national resources, Iranian strategic goals and Iranian power and Russia. Iran is acting as an agent of Russia to bring Russia to the Persian Gulf. This is against the national interest of Iran, and Russians should know this regime is not representing the national interest of Iran.

// END ACT //

If a democratic regime should arise in Iran, says Mr. Homayoun, it would cancel the arms agreement.

Professor Sobhani adds the deal is intended as a rebuke to the United States. Iran seeks an end to U-S economic sanctions and the release of hundreds of millions of dollars in Iranian assets that have been frozen since the takeover of the U-S embassy in Tehran in 1979.

He says the best way for the United States to counter Iran's move toward Russia is to help its reformers. (signed)

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