Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

South Korean President Kim Dae Jung has set a five-year initiative to design, build and launch a commercial space cargo rocket, and to use the rocket to create a commercial launch business in South Korea.

Even more daunting than building the rocket itself is the goal to use only South Korean industries and engineering expertise to create the project. And creating a commercial rocket system may affect not only global space commerce, but also military strength.

Some are worried that technology from the cargo rocket will find uses in South Korea's military missile programs.

"I've got nothing to say about that on the record," East Asia Bureau spokesperson Ken Bailes said. Neither did State's Non-Proliferation Bureau. "We'll get back to you on that," spokesperson Kathy Dale said. But off the record, sources in the White House are concerned that the rocket project "could be destabilizing to the region," as one source said.

Space analysts expressed the same concern. "Doesn't it seem that South Korea would want to strengthen its own launch capability in response to North Korea's 'satellite' launch in 1998?" asked military space analyst Joan Johnson-Freese.

Summary

Today's Asian Space Powers: CHINA -Has advanced space, rocket and missile programs since late 1960's -Developed family of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching far western United States -Has family of Long March commercial space boosters available on world launch market -Developed commercial space capsules for microgravity research, communications and remote sensing satellites -Recently tested prototype of piloted spacecraft

JAPAN -Has Western-supported scientific, commercial and military space programs -Developed the N 1, N 2, H 1 and H 2 commercial rockets -Is planning advanced H 2-A commercial rocket for testing in 2001 -Partner with U.S. in International Space Station -Developed extensive scientific space research program and satellite robotics -Developing military space reconnaissance capability

INDIA -Has advanced scientific space research program in remote sensing and telecommunications satellites -Is developing three families of commercial space boosters for international sale Is developing medium-range Ballistic Missiles capable of reaching Pakistan

North Korea tested what it described as a satellite launch rocket in August 1998, but Western governments were unable to find anything in orbit.

"I think the linkage between launch, missiles and missile proliferation has become so complex," she said. "This will likely spin up the political pressure for Theater Missile Defense from the U.S. for the region."

The 1998 launch was believed to be a test of a ballistic missile system. The Clinton Administration recently has claimed to have obtained the consent of the North Korean government in delaying deployment of that missile. Some fear that the new South Korean rocket project might derail that agreement and heat up the missile race between the North and South.

"If the North Koreans have read the Cox report they will have to believe that developing a commercial launcher will increase the South Korean missile's capabilities," Freese told space.com.

"That [reading] would give them the rationale to continue the work improving their own missile program," she said.

Even if the South Korean commercial rocket is established, some suggest that, given the existing global competition, it won't have many customers. "We are seeing a strategic arms race and space race develop in Asia that is very foolish," said Charles P. Vick of the Federation of American Scientists' Space Policy Project.

"What worries me is the glut of satellite launching capability that will not be economically supportable," Vick said. "This will ultimately undercut those commercial [space] efforts struggling to survive and to become 'real'."

"Have we learned nothing from the lessons of the Cold War ?" Vick asked. "These are programs that they want [to develop] that we definitely do not want them delving into for humanity's own good."

But setting a goal is one thing. Can South Korea actually develop a space program?

"The South Koreans are threatening to accomplish what North Korea was trying to do, and it's crazy," said Vick. "South Korea will find that space business is far more difficult and expensive than they think."