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Analysis: Conservative Conundrum in Iran

Council on Foreign Relations

March 18, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

Polls were barely closed when Brussels fired the first shot condemning Iran’s March 14 parliamentary elections. The U.S. State Department waited only a little longer in seconding EU concerns. The counter-strikes were equally swift on the Iranian side: the country’s Supreme Leader issued a statement heralding conservative victories as a blow to Iran’s “enemies” (Telegraph), while Mohammad-Ali Hosseini, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, dismissed criticism as “hasty prejudgment” (Press TV).

Missing from the high-profile war of words were answers to a vital question: who won? Like many things inside Iran, a lack of transparency in the voting process makes that a hard question to answer. On paper the spoils went to the establishment. Conservative candidates close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad control about two thirds of the 190 races settled so far (Fars), putting conservatives on track to control roughly the same majority of the 290 seat-parliament as held in the current government (RFE/RL). Conservatives won a majority of seats from districts inside Tehran, normally considered a reformist stronghold, and reformists are protesting the results (NYT). All told, reformist candidates are expected to win as many as 50 seats once second-round runoffs are completed in coming weeks. Independent and minority candidates will fill out of the chamber.

But conservatives’ strong showing may not mean a continuation of the status quo. Some observers say voters opted for conservative candidates directly opposed to the economic policies of President Ahmadinejad, who could face a tough reelection battle in 2009. A number of the president’s rivals won seats, including the country’s former chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, and Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, speaker of the current parliament.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.