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Analysis: Iran's Regional Revolution

Council on Foreign Relations

March 3, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

When President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Baghdad March 2 for the first visit by an Iranian head of state since 1979, Iraq’s political delegation greeted him with open arms. Some even offered hugs (ChiTrib). Yet a cold shoulder by the United States may set the post-meeting tone. Washington made no secret of its desire for a quick and quiet visit by Ahmadinejad. Iraqi officials told Newsweek on February 26 the Iranian president would not take part in any talks with coalition leaders; Washington was even less eager to strike up conversation. “I’d refer you to the Iraqi government,” U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey said in January when asked about the trip. “Who they have or haven’t invited to visit their country is up to them.”

That may be true, but some analysts say Iraq’s gesture to Ahmadinejad also represents deeper shifts, including rapidly growing regional influence for Tehran. The collapse of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni Baath party five years ago was seen as a political coup (New York Review of Books) for the regional ambitions of Shiite-led Iran. Today Iran’s influence in Iraq extends to Shiite businesses and political parties—cooperation some Iraqi leaders say will be strengthened (PressTV) by bilateral talks.

Just how much influence Iran wields over its former foe is unclear. Iran and Iraq fought a bloody eight-year border war in the 1980s, during which many Iraqi Shiites fled to Iran for cover. U.S. officials believe Iran exerts significant influence over Shiite clerics Muqtada al-Sadr and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, both of whom command powerful militias. Yet experts disagree (Reuters) on whether Iran’s meddling is meant to destabilizing Iraq or simply to keep Tehran’s options open after the United States exits Iraq.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.