DATE= 11/1/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-37959
TITLE=U-S / CHINA / IRAN
BYLINE=AMIN FEKRAT
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED: // CORRECTS INTRO OF BKG 5-37957 //
INTRO: ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT AGREEMENTS TO COME OUT OF THIS
WEEK'S SUMMIT BETWEEN CHINESE PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN AND U-S
PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON CENTERED AROUND IRAN. PRESIDENT CLINTON
SAID HE WOULD LIFT A BAN ON U-S NUCLEAR POWER TECHNOLOGY SALES TO
CHINA IN RETURN FOR CHINA'S ASSURANCES THAT IT WOULD STOP ITS
NUCLEAR COOPERATION WITH IRAN. AMIN FEKRAT OF VOA'S FARSI SERVICE
SPOKE WITH A U-S EXPERT ABOUT THE STATUS OF IRAN'S NUCLEAR
PROGRAM AND THE ROLE CHINA HAS PLAYED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TEXT: ANTHONY CORDESMAN IS A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE CENTER FOR
STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES IN WASHINGTON. WHILE THE
UNITED STATES HAS EXPRESSED MUCH CONCERN ABOUT CHINA'S ROLE IN
HELPING IRAN DEVELOP NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY, MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THE
LEVEL OF NUCLEAR COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND IRAN HAS NOT BEEN
VERY EXTENSIVE.
/// IST CORDESMAN ACT ///
THAT COOPERATION IS VERY MINOR AND IT INVOLVES
RESEARCH REACTORS AND THEY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED
PROCESSING PROJECTS. SO THESE ARE NOT REALLY A MAJOR
ISSUE. RESEARCH REACTORS ARE INCAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ENRICHED MATERIAL SO THIS IS NOT A THREAT TO
PROLIFERATION.
/// END ACT //
ADDRESSING THE ISSUE OF VERIFICATION OF CHINESE COMPLIANCE WITH
THE AGREEMENT REACHED THIS WEEK, MR. CORDESMAN SAYS COMPLIANCE IS
EASY TO MONITOR AND VERIFY.
/// 2ND CORDESMAN ACT ///
I THINK THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS INVOLVED. FIRST, THE
U-S TRANSFER OF REACTOR TECHNOLOGY IS NOT SOMETHING THAT
HAPPENS OVERNIGHT. IT TAKES YEARS TO BE EFFECTIVE. SO
THIS IS NOT AN AGREEMENT FOR TODAY OR TOMORROW, BUT AN
AGREEMENT WHICH GOES BEYOND THE YEAR 2000.
// END ACT //
MR. CORDESMAN ALSO SAYS THAT, FOR CHINA, TRADE WITH THE UNITED
STATES, ESPECIALLY TRADE THAT BRINGS NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY INTO THE
COUNTRY, IS FAR MORE VALUABLE THAN TRADE WITH IRAN. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, HE SAYS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT CHINA WOULD RISK JEOPARDIZING
ITS COMMERCIAL RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES BY GIVING
TECHNOLOGY TO IRAN.
/// CORDESMAN ACT 3 ///
IF CHINESE TECHNOLOGY OPENLY APPEARED IN IRAN, THE
CURRENT AGREEMENT WOULD HAVE BEEN BROKEN. THIS IS AN
AGREEMENT WHICH FOCUSES ON CHINA'S CRITICAL NEEDS WHICH
IS ENERGY, AND IN COMPARATIVE TERMS, IT IS FAR MORE
IMPORTANT TO CHINA TO BRING REACTOR TECHNOLOGY
EFFICIENTLY AT A LOW COST THAN IT IS TO TRADE WITH IRAN,
WHICH REPRESENTS A RELATIVELY MINOR TRADING STAKE.
// END ACT //
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS THAT IRAN, AS A RESULT OF THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES, WILL PROBABLY TURN TO RUSSIA
FOR THE NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY IT SEEKS. ALSO, HE SAYS IRAN HAS A
CORE GROUP OF SCIENTISTS WHO ARE FAMILIAR WITH REACTOR
TECHNOLOGY.
/// CORDESMAN ACT 4 ///
THIS (THE SINO / U-S AGREEMENT) DOES NOT AFFECT THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN IRAN AND RUSSIA. SO RUSSIA WOULD
PRESUMABLY PROCEED WITH REACTOR CONTRACT. FURTHER, IRAN
IS A RELATIVELY DEVELOPED COUNTRY AND IT HAS A NUMBER OF
EXCELLENT PHYSICISTS. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT
TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE EXPERIMENTAL OR WERE UNCERTAIN 10
YEARS AGO.
// END ACT //
BUT EVEN IF IRAN IS ABLE TO BUILD NUCLEAR REACTORS, MR. CORDESMAN
SAYS MANY IRANIANS WILL QUESTION WHETHER THESE REACTORS ARE
NECESSARY, SINCE THE COUNTRY HAS ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF ENERGY
RESOURCES. (SIGNED)
NEB/AF/KL
01-Nov-97 11:39 AM EST (1639 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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