DATE=12/22/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38511
TITLE=YEARENDER: IRAN UNDER KHATAMI '97
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A LANDMARK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN MAY 1997 HINTED SIGNS
OF POSSIBLE COURSE CORRECTION IN IRAN'S ISLAMIC REVOLUTION.
MODERATE CLERIC MOHAMMAD KHATAMI WON 70-PERCENT OF THE VOTES.
V-O-A'S ALI JALALI TAKES A CLOSER LOOK AT THE STATED COMMITMENT
OF IRAN'S NEW PRESIDENT TO SOCIAL CHANGES AND REACHING OUT TO THE
OUTSIDE WORLD.
TEXT: THE LANDSLIDE VICTORY OF PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI CAME
AS A SURPRISE TO THE RULING HARDLINE RELIGIOUS ESTABLISHMENT THAT
OPPOSED HIS CAMPAIGN. THE ELECTION RESULTS SENT A CLEAR SIGNAL
MOST IRANIANS WANT THEIR COUNTRY TO CHANGE.
PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S CAMPAIGN PLEDGES ARE FAR REACHING BY IRANIAN
STANDARDS -- EASING SOCIAL RESTRICTIONS, CREATION OF JOBS AND AN
END TO THE COUNTRY'S ISOLATION.
DESPITE A SLOW START, MANY IRAN WATCHERS SAY THE COUNTRY IS ON
THE WAY TO CHANGE. THEY CITE THE EMERGING PUBLIC DEBATE OF ONCE
FORBIDDEN ISSUES, SUCH AS THE LEGITIMACY OF THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS
LEADER AS AN EXAMPLE. ANALYSTS CALL THE PROCESS AN IRANIAN
VERSION OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION'S "GLASNOST" POLICY.
DR. PATRICK CLAWSON OF THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST
POLICY NOTES CERTAIN SIMILARITIES.
// CLAWSON ACT //
GLASNOST WAS ABOUT AN INTERNAL CHANGE AND CERTAINLY SEEMS TO ME
THE MAIN AREA WHICH MR. KHATAMI REMAINS INTERESTED IS CHANGING
INTERNAL POLICIES; AND GLASNOST HAD SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR FOREIGN
POLICY, BUT THAT WAS NOT THE PRINCIPLE AREA OF ACTIVITY; AND SO
AGAIN, I THINK THE ANALOGY IS GOOD WITH WHAT MR. KHATAMI IS
DOING.
// END ACT //
BUT MR. CLAWSON IS NOT SURE WHETHER THE IRANIAN GLASNOST WOULD
LEAD TO WHAT HAPPENED IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. SOME IRANIAN
OBSERVERS CAUTION AGAINST SUCH COMPARISON SAYING DESPITE POLICY
DIFFERENCES, ALMOST ALL MAJOR IRANIAN FACTIONS ARE COMMITTED TO
THE PRINCIPLES OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. PROFESSOR NOZAR
ALAOLMOLKI (ALAH-OOL-MOLKI) OF HIRAM COLLEGE, OHIO, SAYS UNBRIDLE
CHANGES MAY LEAD TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF.
// ALAOLMOLKI ACT //
IF THE IRANIAN REGIME WERE TO ALLOW FOR THE OPENING OF THE
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT TO THE YOUNGER PEOPLE, I AM OF THE OPINION
THAT, THAT WOULD BE A NAIL IN THE COFFIN OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
AS IT IS TODAY. I DO NOT MEAN IT WOULD DISAPPEAR, BUT WOULD BE
WEAKENED TO A POINT THAT MAY BRING ABOUT A KIND OF EASINESS IN
THE SYSTEM THAT MAY CAUSE ITS COLLAPSE.
// END ACT //
EFFORTS TO MINIMIZE POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE IMPACT OF CHANGE TO
THE REGIME'S STABILITY HAS BEEN A HALLMARK OF THE CONTRY'S REFORM
POLICY. PRESIDENT KHATAMI CONSPICUOUSLY STAYED ON THE SIDELINES
DURING THE RECENT TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN THE HARDLINE CIRCLES AND THE
DISSIDENT CLERICS OVER THE LEGITIMACY OF AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI.
FEARING THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE IMPACT OF AN UNBRIDLED POLITICAL
CHANGE, SOME IRANIAN POLITICIANS HAVE BEEN ADVOCATING A
CHINESE-MODEL OPENNESS IN THE ECONOMY WITHOUT DISMANTLING THE
POLITICAL STRUCTURE.
BUT, LONDON-BASED VETERAN IRANIAN JOURNALIST AMIR TAHERI SAYS IT
WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO RESIST THE EMERGING LIBERAL MOVEMENT IN
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
/// AMIR TAHERI ACT ///
I BELIEVE THAT CHANCES OF POLITICAL CHANGE ARE GREATER THAN
ECONOMIC CHANGE IN IRAN; BECAUSE THE IRANIAN ECONOMY IS HEAVILY
DOMINATED BY THE STATE, IT WAS THE SAME EVEN BEFORE THE
REVOLUTION, AND SO LONG AS THERE IS NO POLITICAL STABILITY AND
POLITICAL HOPES, IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO CREATE A PRIVATE
SECTOR; PEOPLE WOULD NOT INVEST AND THE MEDIUM AND SMALL
ENTERPRISES NEEDED TO HAVE AN ECONOMIC TAKE OFF, ALSO FOREIGNERS,
WILL NOT INVEST IN THE VOLUMES NECESSARY.
/// END ACT ///
FACED BY TOUGH RESISTANCE FROM WELL-ENTRECHED ANTI-REFORM
CIRCLES, MR. KHATAMI HAS BEEN WALKING A FINE LINE IN MAKING GOOD
ON HIS PROMISES. THE PRESIDENT IS ACTUALLY HAMSTRUNG BY A
CONSTITUTION WHICH GIVES OVER-RIDING POWER TO THE SUPREME
RELIGIOUS LEADER, AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI, ON EVERY IMPORTANT ISSUE.
BUT INDEPENDENT IRANIAN JOURNALIST ALIREZA NOURIZADEH SAYS THE
LONG-SIMMERING DEBATE ON THE AUTHORITY OF THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS
LEADER IS COMING TO THE OPEN. HE SAYS THE RECENT CHALLENGES TO
AYATULLAH KHAMENEI'S LEGITIMACY MAY FORCE THE AYATULLAH TO TEAM
UP WITH THE POPULAR PRESIDENT.
/// NOURIZADEH ACT ///
HE (KHAMENEI) HAS A PROBLEM IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH HIMSELF AS A
VALI-FAGHEH (SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER), SINCE THERE ARE AYATULLAH
MONTAZERI, (AYATULLAH) SHIRAZI AND OTHER AYATULLAHS WHO ARE MORE
SENIOR, AND WHO ARE ACCEPTED BY THE PEOPLE AS SUCCESSOR TO GRAND
AYATULLAHS LIKE KHOMEINI, LIKE GOLPAIGANI...THEREFORE, I THINK,
KHAMENEI GRADUALLY WILL JOIN KHATAMI'S FORCE AND INSTEAD OF
CONTRADICTING HIS DECISIONS HE WILL TRY TO COME TO TERMS AND TO
SUPPORT KHATAMI IN THE LONG-TERM.
/// END ACT ///
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECONOMY IS SAID TO BE A MAJOR TEST FOR
KHATAMI'S TEAM. DECLINING OIL PRICES, HIGH INFLATION RATES AND
LACK OF CAPITAL HAVE REPORTEDLY TAKEN A HEAVY TOLL ON PEOPLE'S
LIVING CONDITIONS. KHATAMI'S FAILURE TO IMPROVE THE ECONOMY IS
EXPECTED TO DISCREDIT THE MODERATES IN IRAN.
PROFESSOR EDMUND HERZIG OF MANCHESTER UNIVERSITY SAYS PRESIDENT
KHATAMI FACES TWO MAJOR OBSTACLES IN HIS EFFORTS TO BOOST THE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT.
/// HERZIG ACT ///
IT IS DIFFICULT FOR KHATAMI TO GET ACTUALLY A SERIES OF LAWS AND
NEW LEGISLATION THROUGH PARLIAMENT TO MAKE IRAN MORE ATTRACTIVE
FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND INDEED MORE ATTRACTIVE FOR BUSINESS IN
GENERAL, BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY OF IRANIAN CAPITAL BOTH IN IRAN
AND IN THE WORLD AT LARGE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE PRODUCTIVELY
INVESTED IN IRAN IF IT OFFERED A MORE FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT.
/// END ACT ///
THE SECOND OBSTACLE, SAYS MR. HERZIG, IS THE VESTED INTEREST OF
THE RULING CLERGY IN MAINTAINING THE STATE-CONTROLLED ENTERPRISES
WHICH HAVE BECOME A SOURCE OF CORPORATE POWER AND PERSONAL
BENEFIT. HE SAYS RESISTANCE TO PRIVATIZE THE BONYADS (RELIGIOUS
FOUNDATIONS) RUNS AGAINST SHIFTS TO MARKET ECONOMY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO 1998, ANALYSTS SAY MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
ABILITY OF THE REGIME AND THE IRANIAN SOCIETY TO SUSTAIN A
PROCESS OF GRADUAL REFORM. THEY SAY, ATTEMPTS TO MAKE RADICAL
CHANGES MAY DESTABILIZE BOTH THE GOVERNMENT AND THE SOCIETY.
(SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
22-Dec-97 1:43 PM EST (1843 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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