DATE=12/31/97
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-224677
TITLE=IRAN / MISSILES (L)
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: AN AMERICAN EXPERT ON MILITARY ISSUES AND THE MIDDLE EAST
SAYS REPORTED BALLISTIC MISSILE ENGINE TESTS IN IRAN ARE A REASON
FOR CONCERN BUT NOT ALARM. AS V-O-A'S JIM RANDLE REPORTS FROM
THE PENTAGON, THE ISSUE IS GETTING A GOOD BIT OF OFFICIAL
ATTENTION.
TEXT: ANALYST TONY CORDESMAN OF "THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES" IN WASHINGTON SAYS REPORTED BALLISTIC
MISSILE ENGINE TESTS IN IRAN ARE ANOTHER STEP ALONG A PATH HE
CALLS "CREEPING PROLIFERATION."
HE SAYS IRAN HAS BEEN WORKING FOR YEARS IN A METHODICAL,
PLODDING, FASHION TO DEVELOP WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND THE
MEANS TO DELIVER THEM.
THE WASHINGTON POST SAYS IRAN IS WORKING ON A NEW GENERATION OF
BALLISTIC MISSILES CAPABLE OF CARRYING A ONE-THOUSAND KILOGRAM
LOAD 12-HUNDRED OR 13-HUNDRED KILOMETERS. IF TRUE, THAT'S FAR
ENOUGH TO REACH ISRAEL OR MOST OF IRAN'S ARAB NEIGHBORS.
THE NEWSPAPER REPORT CITES INTELLIGENCE SOURCES FOR ITS
INFORMATION. OFFICIALS AT THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY AND
THE PENTAGON DECLINED COMMENT ON THE STORY.
STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN JAMES FOLEY (ON WEDNESDAY) WOULD ONLY
REPEAT WASHINGTON'S LONG-STANDING CONCERNS.
/// FOLEY ACT ///
WE TAKE REPORTS OF IRAN'S SEEKING AND DEVELOPING WEAPONS
OF MASS DESTRUCTION AND THEIR MEANS OF DELIVERY
EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY.
/// END ACT ///
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS SOME LONG-RANGE MISSILES
PURCHASED FROM NORTH KOREA THAT ALLOWS THEM TO REACH MOST OF THE
CRITICAL OIL TARGETS IN THE GULF. BUT HE SAYS THEY MAY BE MAKING
PROGRESS TOWARD A MORE DEADLY WEAPON.
/// CORDESMAN ACT ///
OVER THE PAST YEAR, HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN NEW ENGINE
TESTS, MOST OF THEM LIQUID-FUELED, SOME OF THEM
SOLID(-FUELED); THESE POTENTIALLY WILL GIVE IRAN THE
CAPABILITY TO -- AND THERE IS A TECHNICAL DEBATE OVER
HOW SOON -- TO DELIVER MUCH LARGER WARHEADS MUCH LARGER
DISTANCES. AND THIS COULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE
LETHALITY OF THESE MISSILES.
/// END ACT ///
MR. CORDESMAN SAYS ANALYSTS MUST ALSO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENTS IN
MISSILE GUIDANCE SYSTEMS AND MORE POWERFUL WARHEADS. HE SAYS
IRAN WILL HAVE TO MAKE PROGRESS IN ALL OF THESE AREAS BEFORE THEY
CAN CHANGE THE CURRENT MILITARY BALANCE IN THE REGION.
//// REST OPT ///
//// CORDESMAN ACT ///
WHAT IS CRITICAL HERE IN UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT ON THE
BALANCE ... IF IRAN GETS MISSILES WITH REALLY EFFECTIVE
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS, OR EVEN AIRCRAFT WITH BOMBS WITH
SIMILAR LETHALITY, THEY HAVE ROUGHLY THE SAME KILLING
EFFECT AS THEATER NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND THEY DO MAKE A
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE REGION IN THE MILITARY BALANCE.
/// END ACT ///
MR. CORDESMAN, WHO HAS WIDE EXPERIENCE IN GOVERNMENT, CAUTIONS
AGAINST FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON IRAN'S MISSILE PROGRAM. HE SAYS
IRAN COULD ALSO DELIVER BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS FROM PLANES OR EVEN
SAILBOATS. (SIGNED).
NEB/PT/RRM
31-Dec-97 3:28 PM EST (2028 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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