DATE=12/23/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38536
TITLE=YEARENDER:IRAN-U.S. THAW '97
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: HOPES FOR A THAW IN U-S-IRAN RELATIONS CAME TO PROMINENCE
IN 1997 FOLLOWING THE VICTORY OF A MODERATE CLERIC IN IRAN'S
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN MAY. IN DECEMBER, PRESIDENT CLINTON
REACTED POSITIVELY TO CALLS FROM PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FOR A
DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED STATES. V-O-A'S ALI JALALI LOOKS AT
PROSPECTS FOR A U-S-IRANIAN RAPPROCHEMENT
TEXT: INITIAL SIGNALS FROM TEHRAN AND WASHINGTON INDICATE BOTH
SIDES GROUND THEIR OFFER FOR TALKS ON CERTAIN PRECONDITIONS.
THE UNITED STATES SAYS TALKS MUST ADDRESS U-S CONCERNS ABOUT
IRAN'S ALLEGED SUPPORT OF TERRORISM, TEHRAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROGRAM, AND ITS OPPOSITION TO THE U-S-SPONSORED MIDDLE-EAST
PEACE PROCESS.
THE RULING CIRCLES IN IRAN HAVE SUGGESTED WASHINGTON MUST TAKE
CERTAIN STEPS BEFORE A MEANINGFUL EXCHANGE. THESE STEPS INCLUDE
U-S RECOGNITION OF IRAN'S ISLAMIC REVOLUTION, RELEASE OF IRANIAN
FROZEN ASSETS BLOCKADED IN AMERICAN BANKS SINCE 1979, AND ENDING
ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.
FEARING A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS FAILURES TO RESTORE NORMAL
RELATIONS, ANALYSTS SAY BOTH SIDES MOVE CAUTIOUSLY. MANCHESTER
UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR EDMUND HERZIG ADDS OPPOSITION TO TALKS IN
BOTH COUNTRIES DRIVES POLICY MAKERS TO ACT WITHIN SET LIMITS.
// HERZIG ACT //
I THINK ONE HAS TO REMEMBER JUST HOW STRONGLY EMBEDDED
IN BOTH COUNTRIES, IN BOTH CAPITALS, IN BOTH
GOVERNMENTS, THE CURRENT POLICY LINE IS, AND CERTAINLY
IN IRAN THERE ARE STILL VERY MANY PEOPLE IN THE HIGHEST
POSITIONS IN THE REGIME WHO ARE RESOLUTELY OPPOSED TO
OPENING SERIOUS RELATIONS WITH WASHINGTON, AND I THINK
THE SAME IS TRUE IN WASHINGTON.
// END ACT //
WATCHERS OF U-S-IRAN RELATIONS NOTE A SERIOUS ENGAGEMENT CAN
OFFER BOTH SIDES POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS THEY CAN NOT
IGNORE. THEY SAY MENDING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES MAY
BOOST IRAN'S TROUBLED ECONOMY AND ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT,
WHILE THE UNITED STATES CAN FIND IRAN A POWERFUL PARTNER IN ITS
MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIAN POLICIES .
PROFESSOR HERZIG SEES INCREASING SIGNS INDICATING BOTH SIDES
APPRECIATE IMPROVED RELATIONS. HE NOTES IN A NUMBER OF RECENT
U-S POLICY DECISIONS, ISOLATION OF IRAN HAS HARDLY BEEN A HIGH
PRIORITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE NEW ADMINISTRATION IN IRAN HAS
TAKEN A CONCILIATORY TONE TOWARD WASHINGTON.
SOME IRANIAN ANALYSTS SAY IRAN'S OPENING TO THE ISLAMIC WORLD,
AND EUROPEAN OBJECTIONS TO THE U-S ANTI-IRAN SANCTIONS RENDER THE
AMERICAN POLICY OF DUAL CONTAINMENT INEFFECTIVE. THEY CALL FOR
REVISION OF THE POLICY AS A FIRST STEP TOWARD A RECONCILIATION
WITH IRAN, BUT PATRICK CLAWSON OF "THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR
NEAR-EAST POLICY" DISAGREES.
// CLAWSON ACT //
THE CORE OF THE DUAL CONTAINMENT POLICY IS THE IDEA THAT
THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO HAVE TO PROVIDE THE
SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF RATHER THAN RELYING ON
BALANCE OF POWER AMONG THE STATES OF THE REGION; AND I
THINK THAT IT REMAINS A VERY VALID CONCEPT DESPITE THE
CHANGES AT HAND.
// END ACT //
MR. CLAWSON SAYS THE DUAL CONTAINMENT POLICY IS NOT AGAINST
DIALOGUE WITH IRAN, ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTS TO ENGAGE THE ISLAMIC
REPUBLIC WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN THE PAST. BUT, HE SAYS SUCH A
POSSIBILITY NOW LOOKS MORE REALISTIC.
INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS SAY SETTING PRECONDITIONS FOR OPENING TALKS
ON PENDING ISSUES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN CAN DELAY A
MEANINGFUL DIALOGUE. IRANIAN ANALYST AMIR TAHERI SAYS BOTH SIDES
HAVE ALREADY TAKEN STEPS TO PAVE THE WAY FOR SERIOUS TALKS.
// TAHERI ACT //
WE DO NOT HAVE ANY NATIONAL DISPUTE WITH THE UNITED
STATES...THERE IS NO LOGICAL OR MATERIAL BASIS FOR
ENMITY WHICH HAS BEEN FABRICATED ON BOTH SIDES THROUGH
SLOGANS ENTIRELY. SO WHEN KHATAMI SPEAKS OF NEW
OVERTURES, THE NEW DIALOGUE, OF COURSE THIS IS TALK SO
FAR, BUT THESE TALKS ALSO REFLECT THE REALITY AND THE
FEELING AMONG THE MAJORITY OF IRAN.
// END ACT //
EXPERTS CAUTION AGAINST UNDERESTIMATING THE EXISTING DISPUTES.
U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE GULF REMAINS A CONTENTIOUS ISSUE.
PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS CRITICIZED THE PRESENCE OF U-S FORCES IN
THE PERSIAN GULF AS A SOURCE OF TENSION. BUT, DR. CLAWSON SAYS
THE UNITED STATES, CONSIDERS THE DEPLOYMENT VITAL FOR REGIONAL
STABILITY.
// CLAWSON ACT //
I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THAT SECURITY UMBRELLA WITHOUT WHICH
THE REGION WOULD BE MUCH LESS STABLE. AND THE AIM OF
THE SECURITY UMBRELLA IS OF COURSE TO DETER, TO MAKE IT
CLEAR THAT AN ATTACK WOULD NOT BE SUCCESSFUL.
// END ACT //
ANALYSTS SAY, THE FUTURE OF U-S-IRAN RELATIONS WILL MOSTLY DEPEND
ON MUTUAL FLEXIBILITY. NOTING THE LACK OF BREAKTHROUGH IN THE
DRAWN-OUT U-S DIALOGUE WITH CUBA, THEY SAY JUST TALKING CAN NOT
NECESSARILY LEAD TO IMPROVED RELATIONS BETWEEN TEHRAN AND
WASHINGTON. (SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
23-Dec-97 2:47 PM EST (1947 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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