Voice of America 4/28/97
HOW TO DEAL WITH IRAN
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: HOW TO DEAL WITH IRAN WAS THE
SUBJECT OF DISCUSSION AT A MEETING OF
FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSTS AT THE "NIXON
CENTER FOR PEACE AND FREEDOM" IN WASHINGTON
THIS WEEK (MONDAY). PARTICIPANTS DIFFERED
SHARPLY ON THE DANGERS POSED BY IRAN AND
THE WAY TO RESPOND TO THEM. V-O-A'S ED
WARNER HAS THIS REPORT.
TEXT: IS THE UNITED STATES INVOLVED IN A
COLD WAR WITH IRAN OR SOMETHING MUCH
LESS THREATENING? BOTH VIEWS WERE EXPRESSED
AT A MEETING OF THE NIXON CENTER FOR PEACE
AND FREEDOM IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK.
PETER RODMAN, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL
SECURITY STUDIES AT THE NIXON CENTER,
INSISTED IRAN REMAINS A REVOLUTIONARY
REGIME DRIVEN BY IDEOLOGY:
// RODMAN ACT //
I THINK IT IS A PLAUSIBLE OBJECTIVE OF
AMERICAN POLICY TO MAINTAIN THE PRESSURES
OVER A PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL YOU HAVE A NEW
GENERATION OR A NEW GROUP OF LEADERS IN
IRAN WHO REALIZE THEIR PRESENT POLICY IS A
MISTAKE. IT IS A STRATEGY TO SQUEEZE IRAN
OVER THE LONG TERM, TO KEEP IT OFF BALANCE,
TO FRUSTRATE ITS PLANS, PARTICULARLY ITS
EXTERNAL AMBITIONS, TO COMPOUND ITS
PROBLEMS AGAIN OVER THE LONG TERM.
// END ACT //
MR. RODMAN SAID U-S ECONOMIC SANCTIONS
ARE HURTING IRAN, WHICH WOULD LIKE TO BREAK
OUT OF ITS ISOLATION. HE SAID THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD NOT GIVE UP A POLICY OF DUAL
CONTAINMENT OF IRAN AND IRAQ THAT APPEARS
TO BE WORKING.
BUT RICHARD HELMS, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE
C-I-A AND FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO IRAN,
SAID THAT POLICY IS NOT WORKING. HE
EMPHASIZED THAT SANCTIONS HAVE NOT
CHANGED IRANIAN BEHAVIOR AND ARE TOO
CRUDE A DEVICE FOR SUCH A COMPLEX NATION
OF DIFFERENT GROUPS AND LANGUAGES.
MR. HELMS SAID AN OVERLY ASSERTIVE U-S
POLICY HAS OTHER DRAWBACKS:
// HELMS ACT //
SINCE WE ARE THE MILITARY POWER IN THE
PERSIAN GULF WITH THE WHOLE NAVY FLEET
SITTING IN THE SEA OF OMAN, OBVIOUSLY WE
ARE DEEPLY RESENTED NOT ONLY BY THE
IRANIANS BUT BY EVERYBODY ELSE IN THE GULF.
I THINK WE TEND TO FORGET THAT THE WORLD
DOES NOT NECESSARILY LOVE US THESE DAYS.
THE MORE POWERFUL WE HAVE BECOME, THE
LESS THEY ARE GOING TO LIKE US, AND THE MORE
ENEMIES WE ARE GOING TO MAKE.
// END ACT //
THERE IS A MIDDLE WAY, SAID ANTHONY
CORDESMAN, CO-DIRECTOR OF THE MIDDLE
EAST PROGRAM AT THE (PRIVATE) "CENTER
FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES."
HE SAID THE QUESTION FOR U-S POLICY-MAKERS
IS HOW TO DEAL WITH A COUNTRY THAT IS HOSTILE
TO THE UNITED STATES, BUT NOT A MAJOR
THREAT -- AND THAT, BECAUSE OF ITS SIZE
AND RESOURCES, HAS AN UNDENIABLE ROLE
TO PLAY IN ITS REGION:
// CORDESMAN ACT //
I DO NOT THINK IT MATTERS WHAT REGIME IS
IN IRAN. AS LONG AS THERE IS IRAQ, AS LONG
AS THERE IS ISRAEL, AS LONG AS THE REGION
IS GOING THROUGH THE KIND OF ARMS RACE
IT IS GOING THROUGH, ANY IRANIAN REGIME IS
LIKELY TO GO ON WITH SOME FORM OF
(WEAPONS) PROLIFERATION. WE CANNOT
DEAL WITH IT WITH ARMS CONTROL WE
HAVE TO DEAL WITH IT BASICALLY BY
DETERRENCE AND BY ATTEMPTING TO
SLOW DOWN THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY.
// END ACT //
MR. CORDESMAN SAID MILITARY CONTAINMENT
OF IRAN MUST CONTINUE. BUT AS THE EUROPEANS
INSIST, DIALOGUE ON SOME ISSUES IS POSSIBLE,
AS ARE LIMITED AGREEMENTS ON IRAN'S SALE OF
OIL.
ROBERT FREEDMAN, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL
SCIENCE AND ACTING PRESIDENT AT BALTIMORE
HEBREW COLLEGE, SUGGESTED TWO POSSIBLE
TOPICS OF DISCUSSION OF STRONG INTEREST
TO BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN: THE
DISPUTE BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA
THAT ENDANGERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF OIL
IN THE CAUCASUS AND THE INCREASING POWER
OF THE TALEBAN IN NEIGHBORING AFGHANISTAN.
(SIGNED)
NEB/EW/RRM
28-Apr-97 1:35 PM EDT (1735 UTC)
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