Analysis: North Korea Flexes Its Muscles
Council on Foreign Relations
June 19, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan
After years of inconclusive meetings on North Korea's nuclear program, Pyongyang appears to be readying a bold move. North Korea is reportedly moving closer to testing a long-range ballistic missile (NYT). As signs of preparation—including fueling of intercontinental ballistic missiles—seemed to point to a possible launch, Pyongyang told its citizens to wait by their radios for news (globalsecurity.org) The move would end an eight-year pause in such tests and comes despite strong Japanese and U.S. warnings (VOA). Condoleezza Rice warned North Korea that any such test would be considered "a provocative act" (AP). China and Russia are also urging Pyongyang to return to negotiations, which led last fall to a declaration committing to the "verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula."
Some suggest concern over the potential missile test may be misplaced. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists offers a detailed look at North Korea's nuclear capabilities in 2005, noting that while it is widely known Pyongyang has a nuclear program, Kim Jung-Il's regime has never conducted a nuclear test or conclusively demonstrated it has operational nuclear warheads. Brookings visiting scholar Alexander Vorontsov analyzes Kim's "military-first" policy and says it may be oriented more at maintaining domestic order than threatening neighbors. Such a policy could be seen in a positive light, Vorontsov writes, when compared with South Korea's transformation, which began with military rule.
Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.
Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
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